Rubby De La Rosa: The Next Dodgers’ Closer?
Jonathan Broxton was a question mark coming into the season following his second half struggles in 2010, but the Dodgers had backup options in place in case he was unable to regain his past effectiveness. Hong-Chih Kuo had been one of the best relievers in all of baseball over the last few seasons, and the Dodgers also had the flamethrowing Kenley Jansen at their disposal. Vicente Padilla would also be in the mix once he recovered from offseason elbow surgery. Less than two months into the season, it’s all fallen apart in Chavez Ravine.
Broxton struggled before hitting the disabled list with an elbow issue while back problems and more recently social anxiety disorder shelved Kuo. Padilla’s return was barely a blip on the radar before more elbow trouble sent him back to the DL. Jansen has had his moments but has been inconsistent this season, not surprising since he’s been pitching for less than two full years. Javy Guerra became the sixth different Dodger to record a save in 2011 with a scoreless inning last night, but the interesting stuff came one inning earlier.
Called up from Double-A earlier in the day, 22-year-old righty Rubby De La Rosa made his Major League debut in the eighth inning of a one-run game by plowing through the heart of the Astros’ order on just 13 pitches. Hunter Pence swung and missed on a 97 mph heater in a 3-2 count for the first out, Carlos Lee bounced a 1-0 fastball (also 97) to short for out number two, and then Brett Wallace went down swinging on a 1-2 curveball to end the inning. Gameday says he threw nine fastballs, two curveballs, one changeup, and one slider, so he brought the entire bag of tricks to the mound. Guerra got the save, but De La Rosa’s inning was more impressive given the quality of the competition.
Coming into the season, Baseball America rated De La Rosa as the second best pitching prospect in the Dodgers’ organization and third best prospect overall. They regaled us with tales of fastballs that “registered as high as 102 mph,” a changeup with “late fade at 85-89 mph,” and a slider with “sharp, late break.” They touted De La Rosa as having “the potential to be a No. 2 starter or a closer,” and that closer potential is what has put Rubby on the fantasy radar so quickly. With the team seemingly content with using big money Matt Guerrier in the middle innings, there’s a clear and obvious opening for De La Rosa in the ninth. Last night was an impressive start to his career, and if he continues to be effective for a few days/ weeks (last night was Guerra’s fifth MLB game, so the Dodgers aren’t shy about moving kids into high pressure spots), the save opps are almost certain to come his way.
We don’t have a ZiPS projection for De La Rosa on the site, but Dan Szymborski pegged him for a 92 ERA+ in the comments of the Dodgers’ thread at Think Factory. That’s as a swing man, but we’re looking at him for eventual saves, not ERA or WHIP or anything like that. I’m sure many of you are like me and are already fed up with adding and dropping Dodgers’ relievers this season, but this one certainly has some staying power and upside. If De La Rosa doesn’t pan out in the role, we might as well swear off Hollywood closers for the rest of the year. Yahoo! added him to the player pool last night but ESPN has not, and of course he’s available in Ottoneu.
Yahoo didn’t add him until today, actually. So he’s on waivers until the 28th, instead of the 27th.
he’s available in ESPN leagues now.
Jansen (38) and Guerrier (25) had thrown a lot of pitches the night before last nights game. Rubby could indeed turn into the Dodgers 2011 closer at some point, but I wouldn’t count on him getting that role for a while. Management has stated that he is next in line to start if someone goes down. Of course once he stops starting for a while it will take some time to get stretched out again. Fantasy wise, I’d be more interested in him in a “keeper” league (as a starter) than in a short term league. He will likely replace Kuroda or Garland in the rotation next year.
Have Rubby in my NL only Dynasty. Wondering if I should bring him up from my minors. If he keeps his rookie eligibility for next year, I can wait and avoid starting his salary clock. Think he stays up long and well enough to activate him.
do you have to decide right now? why not wait and see if he’s the closer or not. If he’s not closing seems silly to bring him up prematurely as a setup guy.
Is this situation any different then the one in Texas last year?
Neftali Feliz was forced into the closer roll due to lack of dominant bullpen depth? Feliz is still a long term prospect as a starting pitcher, but he continues to be the go-to guy in the closer roll because Texas as a surplus of starting pitchers.
The situation in L.A. seems to be very similar. There’s no harm in putting your most dominating arm in the closer role, even if his long term potential is as a starter.
I don’t think youth or experience are going to come into play here. What’s going to come into play is the fact that no Dodgers reliever can get it done right now. I’ve picked up EVERY Dodgers reliever on my Fantasy team who has been given a change to save games. So far, EVERY one has FAILED me with a blown save.
I see Rubby getting this job sooner then later, simply because NOBODY else can get it done…..not even Broxton himself (when he returns), I think the Dodgers are looking for their year long solution NOW, and they know that Broxton is not the answer.
So, how do Rubby’s prospects compare with those of my current stockpile of might-become-a-closer-if-someone-gets-traded-or-breaks-down types, Evan Meek, David Hernandez and Jonny Venters?
I don’t think it’s wise to completely disregard Guerra, especially since he’s the one who actually got the save last night.
I really hope that Rubby ends up be a starter I picked him up a while ago in ottoneu