Selling High On Yasiel Puig

puigyasielThe number one name blowing up my twitter feed is also fun to say. Yasiel Puig is a manbearpuig, a monster, a manchild, and a linebacker playing baseball, and he once looked like the bodybuilder you see on the left. And yet his batting average on balls in play is over .500, he’s walked three times, and he’s just so impossibly hot that selling high on him — in keeper or redraft leagues — is a popular play. But is it the right one?

To answer this, I just wanted to put him in the context of his peers. He’s only 82 plate appearances into his career, so I had to set the minimums low (80 PA). But here are the top ten rookies in slugging percentage since 1974:

Year Name PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG
2013 Yasiel Puig 82 34 7 14 14 2 3.7% 20.7% 0.312 0.509 0.442 0.476 0.753
2005 Mike Jacobs 112 31 11 19 23 8.9% 19.6% 0.400 0.294 0.310 0.375 0.710
2007 Daric Barton 84 25 4 16 8 1 11.9% 13.1% 0.292 0.362 0.347 0.429 0.639
2009 Randy Ruiz 130 36 10 25 17 1 7.7% 26.9% 0.322 0.366 0.313 0.385 0.635
2007 Ryan Braun 492 146 34 91 97 15 5.9% 22.8% 0.310 0.361 0.324 0.370 0.634
1994 Rico Brogna 138 46 7 16 20 1 4.3% 21.0% 0.275 0.411 0.351 0.380 0.626
2006 Luke Scott 249 72 10 31 37 2 12.0% 17.3% 0.285 0.383 0.336 0.426 0.621
1987 Mark McGwire 641 161 49 97 118 1 11.1% 20.4% 0.329 0.291 0.289 0.370 0.618
1991 Phil Plantier 175 49 11 27 35 1 13.1% 21.7% 0.284 0.376 0.331 0.420 0.615
1996 Brian Giles 143 43 5 26 27 3 13.3% 9.1% 0.256 0.358 0.355 0.434 0.612

Obviously numbers two through four on the list could easily inject a sense of urgency into sell-high discussions for Puig owners. Mike Jacobs? Rico Brogna? Luke Scott? They are the stuff of nightmares. And, not coincidentally, they are the smallest-sample entrants onto the list, averaging about 150 plate appearances among them. The big-sample guys — Ryan Braun, Mark McGwire, and #11 on the list, Albert Pujols — all turned out to be pretty good players. But Puig fits in here, for better or for worse, as his strikeout rate and isolated slugging percentage are right in line with the top ten’s averages (19.3% and .307 respectively).

An easy fall-back would be to compare their respective prospect pedigrees. Mike Jacobs never made the Baseball America Top 100. Neither did Randy Ruiz or Luke Scott. But still you have flameouts in the top ten that were well-regarded. Rico Brogna was 35th on the list in 1991, and Daric Barton made it all the way to 28th in 2006. Puig debuted at 47th on this year’s version of the list, and so he fits in with Brogna and Barton to some extent.

Age is an important factor. Puig has not yet turned 23. If you trim that list for debuts that came from players that were 22 and under, it looks a little different:

Year Name PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG
2013 Yasiel Puig 82 34 7 14 14 2 3.7% 20.7% 0.312 0.509 0.442 0.476 0.753
2007 Daric Barton 84 25 4 16 8 1 11.9% 13.1% 0.292 0.362 0.347 0.429 0.639
1991 Phil Plantier 175 49 11 27 35 1 13.1% 21.7% 0.284 0.376 0.331 0.420 0.615
2001 Albert Pujols 676 194 37 112 130 1 10.2% 13.8% 0.281 0.336 0.329 0.403 0.610
1988 Gregg Jefferies 118 35 6 19 17 5 6.8% 8.5% 0.275 0.309 0.321 0.364 0.596
2011 Brett Lawrie 171 44 9 26 25 7 9.4% 18.1% 0.287 0.318 0.293 0.373 0.580
2001 Adam Dunn 286 64 19 54 43 4 13.3% 25.9% 0.316 0.298 0.262 0.371 0.578
2004 Joe Mauer 122 33 6 18 17 1 9.0% 11.5% 0.262 0.300 0.308 0.369 0.570
2012 Mike Trout 639 182 30 129 83 49 10.5% 21.8% 0.238 0.383 0.326 0.399 0.564
1998 Juan Encarnacion 175 54 7 30 21 7 4.0% 17.7% 0.232 0.364 0.329 0.354 0.561

Hold the phone. Table the talks. Now we only have two stinkers, and Daric Barton — who, it should be noted, never did anything like Puig did at Double-A this year — is the most prominent one. To be fair, the smaller-sample guys on this list didn’t all have powerful careers, but the role of scouting can help us here a bit. Puig looks powerful and has shown great power numbers in the minors. He was pursued for his power. He’s more Adam Dunn than Gregg Jefferies in that regard.

But the plate discipline stats are not Dunn-like, and they do provide us a new bogeyman: Juan Encarnacion. The notable Tiger and Marlin never got his career walk rate over six percent, struck out near the league average, and found his weaknesses exploited as he made his way through the league. He had a .220 ISO in Double-A — not quite Puig’s .286, but decent — and was a toolsy guy that exploded onto the scene, had a four- or five-year peak, and then disappeared (even if injury played a role, he was on his way out).

Should the specter of Juan Encarnacion scare Puig owners into selling? I don’t think so. Look at Encarnacion’s peak from a fantasy standpoint. His average per-162-game season from 1999-2003 showed a .267 average, 21 home runs and 23 stolen bases. That was useful, and it looks like Puig has more power.

Don’t let iffy walk rates scare you too badly, as long as they don’t come with bad strikeout rates (and even then, Chris Davis happens sometimes). Here are the guys that walked less than league average, struck out less than 22% of the time last year (but more than 16%), and showed an ISO over .200:

Name PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG
Garrett Jones 515 130 27 68 86 2 6.4% 20.0% 0.242 0.293 0.274 0.317 0.516
Ian Desmond 547 150 25 72 73 21 5.5% 20.7% 0.218 0.332 0.292 0.335 0.511
Adam Jones 697 186 32 103 82 16 4.9% 18.1% 0.218 0.313 0.287 0.334 0.505
Allen Craig 514 144 22 76 92 2 7.2% 17.3% 0.215 0.334 0.307 0.354 0.522
Yoenis Cespedes 540 142 23 70 82 16 8.0% 18.9% 0.214 0.326 0.292 0.356 0.505
Nelson Cruz 642 152 24 86 90 8 7.5% 21.8% 0.200 0.301 0.260 0.319 0.460

These are all useful players, even if they are missing some skills that make them a little less attractive in the real-life game. But if you had a young Nelson Cruz, wouldn’t that be a good consolation prize if Puig doesn’t Puig all over the league for the rest of time? What about a more powerful Adam Jones? Or a young Garrett Jones with speed and no platoon splits (hopefully, since he was excellent against righties in the minor leagues)? Yes, please.

Puig’s lack of sample size makes him feel riskier than he perhaps is. His combination of age, skills, and pedigree actually puts him in a near-elite group already. His work on slimming down his body and getting faster has improved his stock, and he’d likely be much higher on prospect lists if they came out today. The skillset he’s showing now — without looking at BABIP, and instead focusing on players with power, average-ish strikeout rates, bad walk rates, and some speed — can be valuable even when he’s not as crazy hot as he is now.

You can sell high in a redraft league if someone offers you an established star. But will Matt Kemp‘s shoulder heal enough this year to show as much power as Puig? What is the state of Ryan Braun‘s right to play in the league this year? Will Jason Heyward necessarily outduel him once speed is factored in? What about Yoenis Cespedes‘ strikeout rate? You’d have to offer a surer thing than one of that trio to pry Puig loose in my mind.

And in keeper leagues? Hands off. I signed him, and waited for him to make it to the bigs, and I see enough between the batted ball luck and power explosion that I’ll take my chances and keep the crazy good young outfielder with all the hype. If I end up with Juan Encarnacion with a bit more power, I’ll have a decent consolation prize.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


110 Responses to “Selling High On Yasiel Puig”

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  1. Pauly says:

    isn’t his HR/FB rate almost 50%?!

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    • just because he’s certain to regress in certain ways doesn’t mean the premise that one should not sell high on him is incorrect.

      obviously, if you have found a trade partner that believes that puig will continue at his current pace, it’s less of a “sell-high” and more of a “you should probably make sure that trade partner has not recently suffered a traumatic head injury”.

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      • Pauly says:

        we’re saying the same thing.

        i think one should sell high on him for an established star. that HR/FB rate is so totally unsustainable along with his BABIP you’d be nuts not to move him for a star that fills a hole you might have. i’d especially move him in a keeper league where you can claim his value is even higher than a redraft league. you should be able to demand a haul in a keeper league.

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      • Bill says:

        If this trade is offered, accept the trade, then inquire as to the mental and physical health of your trade partner. It’s not like your partner will care much about his team while he’s battling for his life.

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  2. John says:

    Great article on Puig….I will not trade my Puig for anyone.

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    • Pauly says:

      Anyone?! I’m sorry but the Puig love is a little out of control.
      My CarGo for your Puig. Still holding?

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        I’d take CarGo in a second. But the buy low OFs? Not so sure.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        that’s a good one. I believe Stanton’s power more than Puig’s obviously, and Puig isn’t stealing a ton of bases yet. I’d take Stanton. More of a sure thing, with a real-life trade as the upside.

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      • Bobby Ayala says:

        Just traded Puig, Wil Myers, Scherzer, and J Zimmermann for Mike Trout and I couldn’t be happier. 10-team, 3-keeper, standard 5×5, and my rotation is still the deepest.

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      • Clifford says:

        thats a good trade if you aren’t trying to win this year. otherwise, terrible IMO. Yes, you got the best keeper for sure, but in such a small league, you would have likely had 3 great keepers to begin with anyway. Rather go for it this year.

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    • Beau says:

      LOL you. I would trade Puig for any established star or star-ish player regardless of position. When the bottom drops out on this dude it’s going to be BAD.

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  3. harpago17 says:

    This is a minor complaint, but could you adjust the end of the first paragraph to end with a “?” instead of a period? I must admit that my poor reading skills originally saw the sentence as “But it is the right one.” It wasn’t until the end of the article that I went back and re-read to see if I had the meaning wrong. I think proper punctuation would help address the issue.

    Btw, I really enjoy your articles, and sorry for being grammar police. I just know that I made the mistake, and think others might as well.

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  4. chompsmcgee says:

    Technically, manbearpuig is half monster, half manchild, and half linebacker playing baseball…

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  5. Crazyperson says:

    You wouldn’t trade Puig for Heyward in a redraft? What about guys who were a little lower in the season but doing well like Choo or Rizzo (in a redraft)?

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    • Urban Shocker says:

      No, no, and no. And to answer in advance, no, I don’t think he’ll keep this up. But this is where some game theory comes in: according to the crude but useful player rater, he is a top 10 player right now. So if I trade him, am I willing to say there is zero chance he’ll continue at a top 10/20 pace? Unless you are offered something that fills a glaring positional hole, I don’t think you take that risk.

      There’s a Wall Street saying, let your winners ride (and cut your losses). If you’re a Puig owner in a redraft, enjoy the ride.

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      • Joe says:

        The phrase “letting winners ride” implies that the obverse is negative or zero, which is wrong considering trade value potential.

        If you can obtain a top 20 player, then you must weigh the probability of Puig playing at that level, naturally. His value is essentially derived from power (HR) and average. Does he have top-5 power hitter potential, top-10, etc etc?

        Let’s say, for argument sake, he’s not in the top 5 but makes the top-10. A fair HR/FB is about 21%, arguably. Over 650 PA, that would put expected HR around 25. With his batted ball profile (even assuming same normalization), it would seem implausible for him to be anything more than a 20-25 HR guy (unless he is a rare exception). It’s harder to estimate SB numbers, but sticking around 15-20 seems fair.

        Don’t overlook the fact that he has a 15.3% swinging strike rate, largely fueled by a 41.1% O-Swing%. That is arguably worse than Stanton, Howard, Chris Davis, and Mark Reynolds. Once the babip regresses and the power normalizes, it would be surprising to see him hit for good average.

        Considering the Dodgers are a bottom 3 offense so far, would the R/RBI production even be there for Puig? If Puig stays in the 2-hole and put up a prorated 90-20-70-15-.280-.320 line…would you be happy given what you could acquire for him right now? Is that line fair or even generous? Given his company in the batted ball department, .280 might even be generous if he holds above 20% in strikeout rates. If he slumps later, would he be dropped in the lineup and/or loose playing time? I’m certainly jumping on a good offer and won’t be blindly holding in re-drafts.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        You see, I agree with most of this, and even like your back of the napkin projection. And that’s why I’ll take him over a guy like Heyward, who stopped stealing and was recently hurt. As I said on the podcast today, it looks a lot like an Alex Rios line. Cespedes is an interesting decision. But the truly buy-low OFs, like Kemp, I’m not risking it. Tulowitzki was a tough one for me.

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      • Urban Shocker says:

        Joe those are all great points, and your prorated median probability outcome is what I’m expecting. (Though he ran a lot more in the minors).

        The obvious issue with a trade, and why I made the Wall Street reference is that any savvy owner isn’t going to overpay, i.e. no one is going to offer you Cargo for Puig. Which means a potentially fair trade based on present value would be…baby Cargo? At which point, it probably makes sense just to let it ride.

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      • The Sicilian says:

        @Joe – Obviously his current .485 BABIP is unsustainable, but I wouldn’t be so quick to assume tremendous regression. Speedy hitters typically have high BABIP rates (because they can run out dribblers, bunts, etc.), and Puig’s career minor league rate is over .350. Meanwhile, he’s already credited with four infield hits (which have raised his average from .380 to .424), and I expect him to continue manufacturing base hits.

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      • Marshall says:

        I got Giancarlo for Puig. Keeper league. Wasnt the easiest trade to make, dont like trading the hottest player in the game, but i think 2 or 3 years from now Im going to be really happy I made the deal.

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      • Joe says:

        @The Sicilian

        I completely agree and didn’t dismiss that at all. His average, once adjusted for BABIP (which I might add is about 2x the normal rate vs GBs in particular) and HRs, will be lucky to be above .300 UNLESS changes are made.

        He has a BABIP on grounders of .431. Compare that to say Mike Trout (hard to argue there are many faster) who owns a career .306 BABIP on GB. That even includes a reasonably favorable sample due to Trout’s career .310 average. IF Puig had Trout’s GB BABIP instead, his average would be sitting around .360. Then we have to adjust for the FB BABIP rate. Let’s use say Braun or Miggy as a comp (we’ll call them power hitters who hit for avg as well). Gheir FB BABIP is about .160, while Puig’s is at .440. I’m not sure how to properly adjust for this one though, but it’s a 60-65% correction from those guys. Then you have to adjust for his strikeout rate that will (is) increasing now that they are throwing more out of the zone and with his contact/swing percentages. Just things to consider which lead me to my conclusions before.

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  6. sailenac says:

    Dont be SF Giant bias. Let the kid be great. I know you’re quietly afraid of him.

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    • Beau says:

      Giants fans aren’t scared of this dude. Rings tend to numb the fear.

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      • Yahmule says:

        Giant announcers (except Kuiper) and Padre announcers (except Enberg) are certainly anxious to see him cool off. They pretty much predict a slump every time he swings and misses. I understand homerism, but you would think they might like to just sit back and enjoy the spectacle a bit. One thing I really enjoyed last year was the way the announcers in Oakland openly talked about how much they liked watching Mike Trout play the game.

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  7. RPT says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but Puig had ~90 at bats last year in his first year as a professional player and ~170 this year. That’s not much, which means he’s essentially not only made it to the big leagues in roughly half a season as a pro, but he’s dominated the entire way including when he got to the show. That doesn’t happen on accident, it’s easy to see that this kid is indeed a special player. Am I expecting him to hit over .400 the rest of the year? Of course not, but much like others have said, there are VERY few players that I would swap him for in my Keeper league.

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  8. Dustin says:

    The low BB rate is obviously a concern, but part of walking is realizing that making contact with iffy pitches isn’t a good thing. When Puig starts to have poor results, isn’t that when the low BB rate will become a concern? As long as he’s running a .500 BABIP, there isn’t much incentive to wait for a pitch. Vin Scully mentioned last night that he’s hitting .800 when he swings at the first pitch. Why would he be waiting around for a “better” pitch to hit? He took walks in the minors, I see no reason to believe he’s not going to start walking as his bat cools off.

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    • Yahmule says:

      Having seen most of his ABs since his callup, I agree with this statement.

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    • ndavis910 says:

      This is the point I was hoping someone would make. Why on earth would you even want him to walk if he smacks the tar out of every pitch he makes contact with? BABIP is not a good statistic to use in this case (I’d argue it’s never useful, but that’s another story) and the walk rate needs context. Certainly the guy is hot, but he should be swinging the stick while he is. Let’s wait it out and see how he adjusts before we predict a massive dropoff.

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  9. IK says:

    Got offered Stanton and Grienke for My Puig and Chris Sale. What do you guys think?

    10 team, ROS, Redraft.

    Categories are

    Runs, HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG
    Wins, ERA, K’s, WHIP, Saves

    Thanks

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    • Urban Shocker says:

      You’re going to downgrade at pitcher to break even in the OF?

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Bad idea, because Greinke is worse than Sale. If you can get an actual upgrade over Sale, do it. Otherwise, it is just a lateral to poor move.

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  10. CaliforniaJag says:

    I have Puig in a keeper league for $3. Picked him up off waivers. Was recently offered $4 Edwin Encarnacion for him. This article makes me want to keep Puig, but I LOVE Encarnacion. Seems like I should still hold though, no? Tough decision.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Depends on your 1B situation.

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      • CaliforniaJag says:

        I have Allen Craig and Rizzo. Not desperate or anything…just saw it as a potential opportunity to cash on on a value ceiling. But I’m very unsure that he’s currently at his value ceiling.

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      • Ruki Motomiya says:

        E3 will probably provide more value this year, but Puig will provide more value in future years (Although not necessarily next year). I’d say, seeing as you have Rizzo, that I’d look for someone else, but I couldn’t fault someone who took a $4 E3 for him.

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  11. Brett says:

    Good enough for Adam Wainwright?

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  12. Jacks says:

    Had him as a non-keeper free agent pickup in a keeper league and traded him for a $2 Chris Sale ….

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  13. andrew says:

    traded my puig for his beltre and jose fernandez a week ago. keeper league but in win now mode as well.

    regretting it already…

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    • SleepNowInTheFire says:

      What’s not “now” about Puig? I don’t see how you won now or in the future… Fernandez looks great, but a prize hitter is much more valuable long-term than a prize pitcher.

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      • Joe says:

        Except that he notes that he also got Beltre. It’s a very good trade for him, depending on what his OF and 3B situations were. Even in a vacuum, I’d say he got the better end of that deal.

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      • Jason B says:

        Agree with Joe, I like the Beltre side of that deal.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Very good deal for you! Beltre will produce more hitting-wise than Puig will most likely and you got Jose Fernandez in there as well. (Also, the difference between prize hitters and prize pitchers over the long run is overstated)

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  14. harpago17 says:

    Was offered Gerrit Cole and Tony Cingrani for him in an NL-only keeper league where all three players will cost $1 next season, with $5 inflation each season thereafter and no time limit on owning a player. I turned it down with the note that I’d consider such a deal for Shelby Miller (also $1 next year), but I’m not even sure I’d trade Puig for Miller. Thoughts?

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    • SleepNowInTheFire says:

      See comment above. I don’t think any unestablished arms are worth as much as Puig. Puig has to be a top-5 value at $1.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      While I’d be willing to trade Puig for a pitcher, I don’t think Cole or Cingrani are established enough for it. Puig for Miller depends on if you have better hitting or pitching: If you have better hitting, you can probably get away with trading Puig, while you should hold Puig if you have better pitching. You also have to consider Miller’s control is probably not as good as it has been so far and will regress upwards.

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  15. Peter 2 says:

    He’s no sure thing to be a monster the rest of the year, but who the hell is? The bottom line is, my life and livelihood aren’t on the line when it comes to fantasy baseball, which is primarily a hobby to be enjoyed. And I haven’t enjoyed owning a player like Puig for a long time. Why pass that up by trading him, unless you’re completely overwhelmed by the offer?

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  16. Mikey J says:

    Essentially traded Puig ($10) for Machado ($4) in my keeper league, unsure how I feel about it – what you all think? Machado has the edge in price, position, and age but I have a nagging feeling that I should not have let Puig go. Thoughts?

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    • Jason Castro's mother says:

      Machado ALL DAY. Duh.

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    • Mickey J says:

      Forgot to mention, my league plays with three OF slots, so that’s why OF are particularly downgraded in my league – Machado gets a big ol’ check mark in my mind with positional scarcity (I find OF3-4 is one of the easier mid season things to find on free agency … & I already have Stanton/Upton as OF keepers) … But idk how I feel bout my trade. At least I dealt Puig after his insane first week :)

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    • SleepNowInTheFire says:

      I like it. Puig is awesome, but so is Machado. Puig could outperform Machado and it would still likely be a good trade for you b/c position and price. Good work Mikey.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Good deal.

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    • Jason B says:

      I feel like this post is a total #humblebrag. Smacks of “Gee look what I got for Puig!” with just a hint of “gee I dunno, what do you guys think?” unsureness thrown in at the end to elicit lots of “Great deal!!” comments…

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  17. JoshO says:

    I took Edwin Encarnacion for Puig in one of my leagues. I think I did well and Encarnacion is good value.

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  18. Josh says:

    I tried to move Puig in my league, to surprisingly little success. One fool has, on several occasions, tried to sell me, with an apparently straight face, Allen Craig for Puig AND Matt Kemp (and we’re in an OBP league!).

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  19. Ned Colletti says:

    Got offered Braun for Puig. Am I crazy to be scared off by a possible Braun suspension?

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    • Menthol says:

      No, I would be scared too. Which is not to say it will happen; in fact it probably won’t. But it is possible. Kind of a “Do you feel lucky, punk?” (Dirty Harry) situation. I’d sit tight.

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  20. Jason Castro's mother says:

    Hopefully Puig doesn’t cool off like Dominic Brown…

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    • Joe says:

      With his swinging strike rate and O-Swing%, I’d be surprised if we don’t see a prolonged slump to equal his prolonged success in the near future.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        and yet there are plenty of outliers even given those two rates. And neither of those rates is stable yet. He could easily adjust once they stop throwing in the zone.

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      • Joe says:

        For some reason there wasn’t a “reply” option below the name so I added it here (ignore if that’s a dumb comment).

        To reference: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

        As of 6/26 (prior to game), we’re 34% of the way to a stabilized HR/FB rate. For what it’s worth, if he stopped hitting HR, that rate would “stabilize” at 14%. Considering that’s highly improbable — to not hit a HR in the next 253 PA (assuming constant batted ball profile), it starts to paint the picture. Knowing that figure of 14%, let’s say he hits at that rate going forward. Over those 253 PA “on the road to stabilization”, he is then projected to hit another 4-5 HR which puts him at 11-12 over 50 FB over 339 PA — translating to 21-23 HR as a realistic floor. We’re close to having the GB/FB rates normalize, so there shouldn’t be too much variance in that department unless things systematically shift due to a root cause such as pitchers treating him differently going forward. They’re only throwing in the zone 45%, though. I’m going on and on now, but the point is that while there is still much to uncover — the power is at least partly legit, statistically, with obvious upside over the long-run I gather.

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      • Joe says:

        So yes, I see now it was a dumb comment. To clarify the HR floor, that was based on a prorated 650 PA season that I used in an example above. And yes, I do love tossing around fairly irrelevant projections when small sample sizes are available — makes me feel like a wall street analyst.

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  21. GVeers says:

    I think the best way to do this would be to look at the best 82 PA for players of Puig’s age. Those would be your comps. You need to substantially adjust for sample size to get any meaning out of the first two lists.

    Personally I find the K:BB much scarier than most. With that ratio, pitchers will find his weaknesses soon enough.

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  22. MrScanMan22 says:

    Just got offered My Puig and Verlander for Pujols, Price and GrilledCheese.

    10 team 4 keeper league. My notable other players: Harvey, Latos, Buccholz, Cole, Cano, Goldy, Longo, Myers, Ellsbury, Hanley, Heyward, Grandyman, Segura. To name a few. I’m tied for 1st. Love Price but don’t want my hometown emotional bias to affect my judgment. Could use Grilli as my closers are my weak point (Putz, Willhemsen, Hanrahan, Valverde & Madson were all on my team at one point). Now I’m riding Uehara, KRod and Pestano. Not a Pujols fanboy but won’t discriminate against value.

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Not a good deal. Grilli is good, but closers are a dime-a-dozen to find (Did you drop Putz? If so, is he still available? Pick him back up if you can), while Pujols issues means he isn’t much of a value for you (Especially in a keeper league), while Price is down this year AND his ceiling is basically Justin Verlander anyway. Try to find a better deal.

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  23. pthew321 says:

    In a twelve-team keeper, I’ve offered A-Gon, Trumbo and Wheeler for Puig and a 4-round slide up the draft board for next year. My pitching is deep, have Hanley to fill in at 3b. Am I insane?

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  24. Jon L. says:

    There’s some selection bias in producing these tables that may be skewing the results:

    “For this next table, let’s eliminate everyone who performed like this when they were older, but keep everyone who did so when they were younger.”

    “Let’s narrow down to a strikeout range that includes Puig, but is, on average, lower.”

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      Only true of the last one. All the top tables are just sorted tables based on different age levels. And the K% of the group in the last one is basically dead on for Puig.

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      • Joe says:

        I think, due to sample size and selection bias, it’s far better to evaluate him on his hitting profile (swinging strike rates, O-Swing%, etc). When you do that, it paints a different picture…

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  25. ming says:

    Just landed Puig and Gerrit Cole for Medlen and AJax. How’d I do?

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  26. Hunter Pence's Thorax says:

    I had no intention of trading Puig, was just content watching him rake in my deep dynasty league…until I read the comments section of this article and realized I must be WAY underestimating his current value.

    Dealt him for Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, and Lorenzo Cain and after reading the last 20 or so comments I’m thinking I didn’t get enough.

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  27. David G says:

    Would you trade Reyes for Puig? I have Segura and can’t play both. Puig would replace Dexter Fowler.

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  28. Mark M says:

    I just traded Puig for Kershaw. I didn’t like doing it but the offer was too good. I was also offered Cliff Lee by another team.

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    • Bill says:

      The hype around Puig is making normally sane people offer stupid trades. I’m in a league that is usually extremely conservative and I’m being offered crazy trades for him. I just need to decide which one is craziest.

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  29. Yahmule says:

    Like many powers hitters, they’re busting him hard up and in and then trying to get him to chase junk down and away. He took Marquis the opposite field for a HR in his first AB last week. The first pitch of his next AB was basically chin music, which ticked him off a bit and then the Padres were successful in getting him to flail at sliders a bit off the plate. The Padre announcers were gleeful, and like many people here, predicting he would slump soon. Of course, they have a vested interest in him not succeeding.

    Puig’s talent allows him to do some things that most players cannot, such as perform when he’s angry. His emotions probably got the better of him against the Padres in that game. When the Yankees plunked him, he stole second base on the next pitch. His next time up he homered on the first pitch.

    The thing that makes me laugh is the approach people suggest will be effective against him seem to indicate he is incapable of making adjustments. They also make it seem very easy. Just get ahead in the count and then make him chase junk away. Except, that means you have to throw a first pitch strike and he is not shy about jumping on the first pitch and driving it. Beyond that, you better make sure your outside offerings don’t catch too much plate because his opposite field power is in the upper one percentile.

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    • The Foils says:

      “Beyond that, you better make sure your outside offerings don’t catch too much plate because his opposite field power is in the upper one percentile.”

      see also MadBum’s 1-1 outside offering in Puig’s first at bad that did catch too much of the plate and found its way into the seats.

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  30. JC says:

    Puig/Gyorko for Ellsbury/Closer?? I need saves and steals, and have Profar who can play 2B.

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  31. ryan says:

    Who wins this deal in a franchise league…. Puig for Harvey and J Upton

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  32. Mack says:

    I guy offered me a trade: J. Zimmerman for J. Votto (pitching heavy league)… Already have gonzo, butler and cuddyer 1st base eligible. I was thinking about offering a few trade back:
    Puig, Werth, Zimmerman –> Votto, A. Jones, J. Locke
    Puig, Werth, Zimmerman –> Votto, Stanton, J. Locke

    What do you guys think?

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  33. 5 cent head says:

    Just traded Puig and Putz for B Harper and M Reynolds. have plenty of closers and lack depth at 3b (have Donaldson). how did I do? In another league trying a puig/moreland package for Ortiz/Hamilton.

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  34. nickatl says:

    good article. i picked puig as a sub for crawford. thought about making him a permanent replacement, but had to decide on the front end, and crawford is a keeper. now i wish i had made it permanent. have to release him when crawford activated.( a dodgers fan, i hate to hope for setback in crawford’s rehab. instead, i urge the dodgers to be cautious. he should be healed by september.) it will cause a league wide feeding frenzy when puig is released. i have to hope a lower tier team picks him up so i can trade for him. hopefully, none of my fellow owners follow fangraphs. meanwhile, kemp ran well last night and appears somewhat more comfy at the plate. i am hopeful he is finding is stroke. atl nick

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  35. CH says:

    Right now I’m starting Rutledge at SS in a standard 5 category+OPS H2H league and I have Puig. Someone offered me Segura for him. My other OF’s are Victorino,Aoki and Marte. I dominate in SB’s and struggle in HR/RBI/OPS.

    Thoughts?

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  36. LRG says:

    I was offered Allen Craig and Kenley Jansen from this guy for my Puig and Huston Street. It’s in a keeper league. I really dont know what to do. Should i pull the trigger and get a safer bat and upgrade my closers or ride out puig and hope he keeps it up??

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  37. CaliforniaJag says:

    Have now been offered $19 Carlos Gonzalez for $3 Puig and one of $42 Justin Upton/$16 Domonic Brown in my keeper league. Ughhhhhhhhhhhh. I’m on the fence.

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  38. Joker526 says:

    Carlos Gonzalez for Yasiel Puig and ___? Which is the better (more realistic) offer to get Cargo? Wil Myers, Lind, Freeman.

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  39. Emerald City Blues says:

    What about Puig for Felix Hernandez straight up in redraft? I could use the Wins to improve my position in roto league.

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  40. Cat says:

    10 team redraft league. R – HR – RBI -OBP and SLG% ( no BA ) K – ERA – WHIP – K9 and QS ( no wins )

    Was offered Matt Kemp and Jered Weaver for Puig.

    Other 5 OF ( start 5 ) are Justin Upton, Desmond Jennings, Markakis,Carlos Gomez and Will Meyers.
    Kemp’s shoulder healed enough to produce power the rest of the year ?

    Could use the SP upgrade.

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  41. Jared says:

    In my 5 player keeper league, I was recently offered:

    Yasiel Puig and J.J. Hardy for Jean Segura.

    It was very hard not to accept this trade. I think Jean Segura has more patience at the plate, has proven himself over more at bats, and could have an outstanding year next year. Puig is a question mark with unreal potential though. Not to mention I get a power hitting SS, although I will not keep him.

    My potential great season estimates for the two are:
    Jean Segura: .333AVG/15HR/60SB
    Yasiel Puig: .300AVG/35HR/25SB

    Would you make this trade? Why or why not? What about Segura for Puig straight up?

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