There’s a pretty good schedule of games tonight, let’s take a look at some of the better value plays for your daily Pick Six
Kelly Shoppach ($0.50)
Much of the ire Rays fans have toward Kelly Shoppach was greatly diminished in game one of the ALDS when the pudgy backstop hit two home runs and drove in five against C.J. Wilson. To the astute viewer it shouldn’t come as that big of a surprise, however. Despite his poor overall numbers – .176/.268/.339 – he hit well against left handed pitching, something he’s done over his whole career. His .788 OPS and .349 wOBA against southpaws this season were the lowest figures of his career, and they’re still above average. Today he’ll face Matt Harrison, another lefty. Harrison has a pretty pronounced platoon split for his career (4.56 FIP vs RHB, 3.98 vs LHB) but the number against right handed batters have improved dramatically this season (3.57 FIP). With a K/9 under 7 and a GB% of 47 he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He’ll work low in the zone to try and induce weak contact and Shoppach will try to take advantage of any mistakes Harrison happens to make. For the low, low cost of $0.50 the reward outweighs the risk.
Jhonny Peralta ($0.50)
The fact that Peralta only costs fifty cents is pretty ridiculous and represents the Pick Six consumer one if not the biggest bargains in the entire game this post season. Hell, Joe Savery is going for one dollar. Peralta had a big comeback season, belting 21 home runs while posting his first +.800 OPS season since 2008 and first +.350 wOBA season since 2005. He also has reverse splits, putting up a .366 wOBA vs right handed pitching and .329 against lefties. That will come in handy tonight as he faces A.J. Burnett. Like Peralta, he also has reverse splits this season. He hasn’t been good against lefties by any means (4.28 FIP) but the numbers against righties are downright awful (5.33 FIP). Burnett had one of his better months of the season in September and still ended it with a 4.56 FIP, granted with 11.05 K/9. Another thing working in Peralta’s favor is the fact he’s playing at home. This season he had a +146 point difference in his home and road OPS and a .53 point difference in wOBA. Burnett actually pitched worse away from homer friendly Yankee Stadium (4.96 road FIP). We all know he has the ability to come out and dominate but more often than not the past two seasons that hasn’t happened. It’s likely a few Tigers’ hitters will have nice days against Burnett, but none with a better value than Peralta.
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