Shortstop Risers and Fallers: Theriot, Rollins and Aviles
The updated shortstop rankings will be available on Tuesday. Until then lets take a look at some shortstops that have risen and fallen over the past fortnight.
Risers:
The-Riot is a second basemen for the Giants, qualifies as a shortstop for our purposes. Owned in just five percent of leagues he’s hit .403 over his last 46 at bats. His three steals is tied for tops at his position over the past two weeks. He’ll never hit for power – 17 career HR in 827 games – but is capable enough to go on a hot streak. His four hit game last night was the fifth time in the past eight games he’s had multiple hits. There isn’t much depth at the position so if he can keep a starting job, and Bruce Bochy loves veterans, there’s a good chance he’ll be able to maintain a .275-.290 average with double digit steals. That has real value in deeper mixed and N.L. only leagues.
As many predicted before he signed his latest contract with the Phillies this off season, the 33-year-old hasn’t hit well. He’s currently hitting .251/.301/.346 which, if the season ended today for some odd reason, would be the lowest OPS of his career. He’s swinging at more pitches outside the strikezone than ever before and is making the least amount of contact he has in a decade. Unlike Theriot, Rollins is owned in a large portion of leagues (90%), mostly based on name value alone. Less heralded players like Kyle Seager and Jed Lowrie are outperforming him by miles but are owned in less than 70 percent of leagues. Rollins looks to have found a nice hot streak, though. Over the past 10 games he’s raised his average from .224 to .251 and added six extra base hits. He’s stolen just one base in that time but is still on pace to swipe ~25 for the season. With his OBP now sitting above .300 maybe Rollins can be a steady, if not good, producer for the rest of the season.
Fallers:
Higher profile players have also performed poorly over the past two weeks, namely Derek Jeter and Asdrubal Cabrera, but they’re more likely to rebound than Aviles. Currently Yahoo! has Aviles as the fourth highest ranked shortstop. He hasn’t been doing much to help himself stay there. Over the past two weeks he’s hitting .231/.222.250 with zero(!) walks. In fact he hasn’t drawn a walk in over a month. His season totals still look respectable but he’s heading in the wrong direction in a quick way. On May 1st I wrote about how Aviles was exceeding expectations when he was hitting .286/.323/.516. Since then he’s swung at 43.1 percent of pitches outside the strikezone, tops among shortstops. You’re making me look bad, Mike. He hit poorly last season and after a good start this year is right in line with his 2011 numbers. Jump off the Aviles ship before it sinks any deeper.
Someone offered me James McDonald for Aviles two weeks ago and I didn’t even make a counter offer. I think it was the fastest offer-to-accept time in the history of our league, haha.
Was expecting to see Lowrie on the risers list… wonder where he’ll fall in the rankings. Aviles walk rate is scary whereas A Cabs K:BB ratio blows my mind.
Love it-I’ve had all 3 rostered for a week(Lowrie all year)
I still like Aviles for his flexibility. In ESPN he can play second, third, or SS. In a league with limited moves, that still has value.
Seager offers the same but with a better lineup spot and more consistent numbers (he walks too!). He made Aviles expendable for me.
Both have some major flaws: Seager can’t hit at home and Aviles can’t hit righties.
Seager is only a 3B in the ESPN league I’m playing in. I want to drop Aviles but having trouble finding another option with similar flexibility.
How ’bout Dee Gordon as a riser?
I think Aviles biggest value was when he was being plugged into the top of the batting order. I expected it to last until Crawford or Ellsbury returned, but Nava and Sweeny have been hitting the ball well and Valentine has been putting them in the 1 hole.
Aviles is streaky, and will go on a tear again, but from the bottom of the lineup, it doesn’t feel worth it to ride out his lows.
All of what you say about Aviles is true … except he is the Shortstop for the Boston Red Sox, a team that scores 5.19 runs per game, 0.9 higher than league average, and second in the league behind Texas (5.34) and above St.Louis (5.15). And he has versatility.
He might not take a lot of walks, but he also strikesout on 15-18 % of the time, and he’s gonna put the ball in play on a team that will have a lot more runners on base that other teams, so his RBI’s will increase.
Plus with a manager like Bobby, he will shift up and down in the lineup when he’s hot and due to matchups quite often, but even if he hits 8th or 9th, it will be ameliorated by the team he is on.
And he steals bases with some pop. 2010 was no fluke. He’s a career .284 hitter in the major leagues, and he’s gonna be the Red Sox shortstop all year unless he gets hurt.
.270 avg, 80+ runs and rbis, with 10-15 steals and 10-15 home runs is a rare shortstop qualifying player not named Hanley Ramirez. Drop him at your own risk, because someone else in the league will pick him up.
I have to agree with Bob, in saying Aviles’ value is increased by his pos fleibility on ESPN, where I’ve had him on roster since picking him up as FA in April. But I also agree with SaggyChild. I’m not sure taking up a roster spot while riding his lows is worth it anymore. I’m sure someone else will pick him up if I drop him, but he’s not alluring enough to trade. I need the roster spot. He may streak again, but I doubt it will be a prolonged streak.