Comments on: Snake Draft Strategy: The Cheapest Pitching Staff Possible

By: JoeC

JoeC — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 15:34:37 +0000

There is a slight problem with your theory though: in real drafts, where players are drafted don’t correspond to their ADPs. For example, in my main league’s draft, only 6 of the 9 pitchers you profiled were actually available at the pick you recommended they be taken.

It’s even worse when you consider that 2 of the 6 that were available to take at the time you recommended were Homer Bailey and Mike Minor, one who’s on the DL and the other who’s in the Minors.

So for the 7 pitchers who are actual viable starters today, only 4 of them were available in the rounds you recommened they be taken.

This is the main problem with this “wait for pitching” strategy: the guys you want may not be there late in the game. However, this is not to say that I don’t agree with you “in general”. I think you DO have to wait to fill out the majority of your staff and spend those early picks instead on offense. The main reason for this is that it’s MUCH EASIER to pick up starting pitching off the wire during the season than it is competent offense.

Good article though, and definitely food for thought.

Ricky Nolasco
Your Rd 15 pick (picks 169-180)
ADP: 181
My draft: 195
Possible: Yes

Hiroki Kuroda
Your Rd 16 pick (picks 181-192)
ADP: 193
My draft: 187
Possible: Yes

Ian Kennedy
Your Rd 17 pick (picks 193-204)
ADP: 194
My draft: 185
Possible: No

Edwin Jackson
Your Rd 18 pick (picks 205-216)
ADP: 211
My draft: 242
Possible: Yes

Jordan Zimmerman
Your Rd 19 pick (picks 217-228)
ADP: 229
My draft: 265
Possible: Yes

Jorge De La Rosa
Your Rd 20 pick (picks 229-240)
ADP: 232
My draft: 198
Possible: No

Scott Baker
Your Rd 21 pick (picks 241-252)
ADP: 257
My draft: 222
Possible: No

Mike Minor
Your Rd 22 pick (picks 253-264)
ADP: 255
My draft: 247
Possible: Yes

Homer Bailey
Your Rd 23 pick (picks 265-276)
ADP: 285
My draft: Not drafted
Possible: Yes

By: Mike Podhorzer

Mike Podhorzer — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 22:53:34 +0000

Webb just had a setback after feeling something on the top of his shoulder. At this point, who knows when he will actually make his return and when he does, how effective he will be. I think he could be safely dropped assuming your league is 12 teams or fewer.

By: Dr. Paul

Dr. Paul — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 19:12:23 +0000

Mike,

What about Brandan Webb. I picked him up 25th round in two mixed leagues?

By: Wade8813

Wade8813 — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 02:35:27 +0000

In a draft, it seems to me that there isn’t much of a reason to not start picking pitchers after your starting lineup (plus maybe one bench) are taken. Bench are valuable, but not nearly as much as your first pitcher.

On the other hand, in auction every dollar you don’t spend on pitching can be used to make your lineup better (theoretically). You can just keep bidding more and possibly end up with multiple first-round talents. No matter how much hitting you want in a snake draft, you’re going to end up with 1 first round player plus MAYBE a player that you view as first-round caliber who will fall to you.

By: A Hill O' Beans

A Hill O' Beans — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 02:45:34 +0000

I tried this very same strategy today, mind you it was a 10 team league. My hitting is unstoppable and my pitching….well, it’s got plenty of potential at least.

Buchholz
J. Sanchez
D. Hudson
Bumgarner
Kennedy
Gio Gonzalez
E. Jackson

By: B N

B N — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 02:11:23 +0000

It’s tough to say. I still think my favorite strategy tends to be to look at the biggest dropoffs and avoid falling into them. Basically, you try to maximize team value by minimizing the dropoff you’re going to see at any position between when you draft and your next pick. So, if the last SS worth a roster spot is still on the board- you take him and fill your SS, unless you think some other spot would be weaken your team even more if not addressed.

Pitchers, after the top couple of tiers, turn into one heck of a free for all- there isn’t a major dropoff. That means this sort of strategy tends to draft most of its pitchers towards the end. Personally, I don’t think that’s a bad thing. Pitchers are more volatile and especially in your standard shallow 12 team league, reliability is pretty overrated- there’s always plenty of talent left in the pool.

I think this has also been aggravated, at least in Yahoo, by the choice to have 2 DH spots in their default leagues (WTF by the way). This means there is even more competition for the top hitters (for which there are huge, consistent dropoffs compared to the waiver wire). While the IP limit has been increased also, this just tends to mean you don’t have the luxury to sit out your starters for bad matchups, not that you need a whole extra body.

By: B N

B N — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 01:41:21 +0000

I agree that wins are not nearly as volatile as people think. People only think they’re volatile because they look at pitcher stats. Look at their team run support and their bullpen quality, and you can very quickly figure out which teams are going to give their pitchers a lot of wins…

Some basic hints, choose teams that rhyme with:
1. Stankees
2. Wedlocks
3. Willies
4. Strays
etc.

I mean, look at Lackey’s season last year and then look at his 14 wins. Raise your hand if you think that is repeatable.

By: B N

B N — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 01:33:49 +0000

I think technically your surest advantage ideally comes from “market timing” things so that you can grab the best hitters possible, while still grabbing the best pitchers possible. So all you really need to be is about 1 round ahead of people probably. At that point, you’ve kept pace with their batting and are gaining advantage with your pitching. There’s very little point in drafting someone 5 rounds earlier than you have to, even if they are undervalued by 6 rounds.

By: DrBGiantsfan

DrBGiantsfan — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 00:45:23 +0000

Also, you all might want to check out Brad Johnson’s article in today’s hardballtimes.com about how “pitching backwards” works in fantasy baseball too.

By: DrBGiantsfan

DrBGiantsfan — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 00:42:31 +0000

Excellent analysis. The problem with the draft offense first strategy is if everyone else is doing it too, then you are fighting with everybody else for the same premium offensive players and by the time you get around to drafting pitchers, you are fighting with everyone else looking for undervalued pitching. It’s no different than Moneyball and undervalued commodities. Pitching is now THE undervalued commodity in fantasy baseball.