Starting Pitcher Velocity Decliners
On Saturday, I took an early look at the 10 starting pitchers who have seen their average fastball velocity increase the most. Since velocity tends to gradually increase into the summer, I wanted to only capture the pitcher’s last start, and decided to use the “Last 7 Days” Split filter. In fact, there is a far greater number of starters whose velocity is down than whose velocity is up. Today, I will use that same method, but instead focus on the 10 starters whose velocity has declined the most. This is not the list you want to see your fantasy starter on!
| Name | 2012 FBv | 2011 FBv | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Vogelsong | 88.5 | 91.5 | -3.0 |
| CC Sabathia | 91.5 | 93.8 | -2.3 |
| Tim Lincecum | 90.0 | 92.3 | -2.3 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 89.6 | 91.7 | -2.1 |
| Roy Halladay | 89.9 | 92.0 | -2.1 |
| Brandon Beachy | 90.1 | 92.0 | -1.9 |
| Carl Pavano | 87.1 | 89.0 | -1.9 |
| Kevin Correia | 89.0 | 90.8 | -1.8 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 90.1 | 91.7 | -1.6 |
| Felix Hernandez | 91.7 | 93.3 | -1.6 |
Last year during his surprise season, Ryan Vogelsong never averaged below 90.0 miles per hour with his fastball in any of his starts. In his first two starts this year, he has failed to average that mark. Most fantasy owners already assume he was in for a big regression this year to begin with, so this loss of velocity only adds fuel to the fire. Interestingly, his strikeout rate is way up. However, his SwStk% has barely budged, so the early K/9 bump looks like a complete fluke. Strong surface stats to open the year gives his owners a window to trade him away as some non-believers may start to come around.
CC Sabathia‘s velocity has been down over his first three starts, though it hasn’t affected any of his underlying metrics. Though, it’s possible that his inflated line drive and HR/FB rates are a product of the decreased velocity. But that could simply be a small sample fluke.
Perhaps the most talked about velocity decliner is Tim Lincecum. If you start back from his debut in 2007, his average fastball velocity declined every single year through 2010. The trend was then interrupted in 2011, but then continues again in 2012. Surprisingly, his SwStk% has been amazingly consistent, which is quite a testament to his off-speed pitches. While his strikeout rate has jumped so far this year, the number is deceiving as it is inflated by his insane .426 BABIP. His K% is actually down for a third straight season. As much as I want to say to go out and get him based on his 3.04 SIERA, I remained concerned enough not to give a full endorsement.
Anibal Sanchez had some shoulder problems over the spring, and now his velocity is down. Hmmmm. Maybe he is still building up arm strength as he moves further away from the issue. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed some time again at some point due to that shoulder.
After experiencing down velocity at some point during the spring, the loss has extended into the season for Roy Halladay. And so far, only great fortune has allowed him to avoid being called a disappointment. His K% is down, BB% up and his SIERA sits at an un-Halladayesque 3.95. His F-strike% is down, supporting the increased BB%, but his SwStk% is right where it usually is (aside from last season’s career high). Funny how Halladay’s velocity drop is nearly as dramatic as Lincecum’s, but since Lincecum has had terrible luck on balls in play and Halladay has had great luck, you only read about the impending doom for Lincecum because people only look at their respective ERAs.
Brandon Beachy‘s last two starts featured average fastball velocities below any start he had last season. Though from the surface it appears that Beachy is picking up where he left off last year as his ERA moves closer to his 2011 SIERA, his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically. Now his current SIERA is much more in line with his actual 2011 ERA. I don’t think the velocity drop here is that big of a deal though since he averaged 91.1 in 2010, so this shouldn’t raise concerns of a possible injury. But, he was extremely unlikely to post another 10.0+ strikeout rate again, and this velocity decline won’t help matters any.
Looking at Madison Bumgarner‘s PITCHf/x velocity charts reveals a pitcher whose velocity has fluctuated quite a bit from start to start in the past. While his velocity gradually increased throughout 2010, it was in a downward trend last season and now his average velocity has declined in each of his last two starts. With only 7 strikeouts in 17.1 innings and a meager 5.5% SwStk%, is it time to panic? Man, between he, Lincecum and Vogelsong, is someone poisoning the water in San Francisco to offset all the magic they have enjoyed from a depressed HR/FB ratio in the past?!
Four starts in and Felix Hernandez‘s velocity still has not rebounded to previous levels. Of course, he has pitched superbly anyway, with strong peripherals resulting in a fantastic 2.71 SIERA. Like Lincecum, Felix’s velocity has steadily declined since debuting in the Majors. Does anyone still remember that he averaged 95.8 miles per hour back in 2005 during his rookie campaign? His velocity then dropped into the 94.0 mile per hour range, which is still excellent, before falling to just 93.3 last year and then dropping further so far this season. So we have yet another ace who bears close monitoring to see if his velocity improves.
Obv, people not looking deeper past ERA plays into it, but there’s probably more talk/worry about Lincecum because he’s also publicly stated that he’s scraping his slider.
Another that has me worried is Matt Moore:
2011 (only one start): 95.7
2012: 93.6
Last start in 2012
Ave FBv: 93.3
Max FBv: 95.3
Only MLB start in 2011
Ave FBv: 94.4
Max FBv: 97.3
I know there are studies that show how important velocity is, but I think articles like this require caveats regarding the incompleteness of the supporting data. It’s not like decreased velocity is ALWAYS a harbinger of doom, or the opposite predictive of success. If we had this conversation about Lincecum in 2010, his velocity decrease would have correctly predicted a drop in FIP. Then in 2011, the velocity bounces right back up to 2009 levels and his FIP…stays right where it was the previous year. It seems that while we know that velocity matters, we don’t really know when and to what extent a velocity shift is significant.
With that said, I fully understand the need to focus on stabilized stats, and that restricts us to velocity and swing% at this juncture. Can’t wait to see contact rates stabilize! Woo hoo!
The small joys of sabermetric fantasy players.
Wait one week. We have at least a 7 part series planned on pitcher aging. Basically, velocity is very significant and if a pitcher can maintain their velocity, they don’t “age” at all.
Prior to this season, Cliff Lee had four consecutive seasons of fastball velocity increase, from 89.0 to a peak of 91.5 last season.
Pretty impressive.
Fangraphs…where pleas for statistical rigor are almost immediately rewarded. Bravo.
Looking at Anibal Sanchez’s start yesterday, his velocity looks to be slightly over 91, so far his best start in terms of velocity.
Glad to see no one noticed my 3.7 MPH drop in velocity thus far. With my injury history that still gives my fantasy owners time to unload my dead carcass onto some other owner before they realize what is happening!
Hi Brandon, you aren’t throwing 4-seam fastballs. You replaced it with a sinker, which is humming along at the same speed as your 4-seam last season. Your cutter is also faster.
Don’t I feel silly!
Perhaps the better discussion would be around the early signs of how this change in pitch selection is faring and how others who have made similar changes have fared in the past??
What about Brandon Morrow? Is decrease in FB velo cause of decreased SwStr% and K%?
Perhaps not quite among the “just missed” is Ubaldo. He’s down 1 mph on the standard readings and 1.8 mph on Pitch F/X. He also has an 11/11 K/BB and a 5.7% SwStrike%. I’d be in full sell mode with him if I’d drafted him on any of my teams, though I suspect part of the reason you left him out is that you’re tired of people telling you how great a sleeper he is while you argue he’s a huge risk.
There are two questions I have though about this excersize in general, not to dispute the validity of the theoretical practice, but more “devils advocate” practical issues.
1. There was a lengthy discussion in the gainers thread about the error rate of speed guns, both standard and Pitch FX. The conclusion seemed to be there was actually a fairly sizable error rate from stadium to stadium, even in the supposedly standardized Pitch FX. So even if an objective velocity measurement is predictive in a short sample, doesn’t the lack of objective measurement create a big sampling issue? An error rate of even 1 or 2 mph in one of three starts could destroy the validity of the numbers on any single pitcher.
2. Do you know of any work done on velocity trends throughout the year? Its not hard to construct an anecdotal argument that pitchers would generally be more inclined to reduced velocity early in the year than increased velocity (cold weather, still building arm strength perhaps i.e. Anibal), though I’ve never seen any evidence to support this one way or the other. Perhaps the better question, what is a typical distribution of pitcher velocity readings from given three-start samples? How large is the sampling variance when dealing with limited sets?
Not sure why Ubaldo didn’t come up, maybe because he hasn’t pitched enough innings yet to be “qualified”. But yeah, I would have been in sell mode during spring training! After all, one of my bold predictions was that he would be worthless again. Oh, and he was just traded for Bryce Harper in my single season 12-team mixed league.
Yeah, can’t really talk to the error rates of the system, but obviously it could be an issue.
I believe it was Tristan Cockroft who did it, but I know ESPN (of all places) recently published an article looking at average velocity for each month of the season, and the trend was up. It probably wouldn’t be too hard to just look on FanGraphs at the league stats tab and then use the monthly filters to find it.
I literally can’t tell if you’re serious when you write “is it time to panic” about Bumgarner.
Well, he was missing bats with similar velocity at the end of last season, but he’s not now. His Z-Contact% has to be close to the worst in baseball, if not the worst, but he is throwing plenty of strikes (could be related to his high Z-Contact% – batters could be expecting strikes). I think his next couple of starts will show where he’s going.
I’m serious and Abscess described the situation well. Bumgarner is no stranger to a loss in velocity either. It happened in the minors and although his ERA didn’t show it, his strikeout rate plummeted.
Where does a reader need to go to compare velocities in 2011 and 2012. Is there any easy way to do this or do you have to go pitcher by pitcher? … Mike, I’ve enjoyed your recent articles on FB velocity very much and hope that this becomes a regular feature at Fangraphs–keep up the good work!
Thanks, appreciate it and glad you’re enjoying it! You certainly don’t have to go pitcher by pitcher, it’s very little manual work required. What I did was go to the Leaders link and then clicked on only starters. Clicked to the Pitch Type tab which shows pitch velocities and also used the “Last 7 Days” Split filter (but you can choose whatever time period you want). I exported this data.
Then I went to the full season of 2011, exported the Pitch Type tab data as well. I copied this and pasted it onto the same sheet as the 2012, matched up the names using VLOOKUP and then subtracted.
Oh great, I own CC, madbum , anibal and beachy in a keeper league.
Justin Masterson is down 2.7mph from last year, not sure how he’s not on this list.
Felix was hitting 93 each fastball in the 8th his last time out (12k performance vs the indians). His arm is still loosening up, his velocity will be fine.
isn’t the trope that velocity increases during the season? if so, it wouldn’t seem correct to compare full season MPHs (2011) to 3 starts at the beginning of 2012. If anything, compare April 2011 to April 2012.
Sabathia’s velocity was down significantly early last year too before taking off, along with his overall performance. That seemed to coincide with a pretty noticeable uh…physical expansion, and he’s drastically slimmer this season than last. I doubt it’s a coincidence.
So is it time I should be worried about Halladay maybe look to trade him?
Also tied with Felix/Bumgarner at -1.6: Tommy Hanson. That downturn could unfortunately be very telling as to the health of the shoulder, obviously.
There’s no problem with Hanson, but there is with pitch f/x. It classifies his new two seamer as a four seamer, and Beachy’s four seamer as a cutter.
Beachy has replied to a capitolavenueclub.com tweet stating he doesn’t throw a cutter.
what about weather conditions and temperature factors? is there a website where we can do a 2010 to 2011 by year or by month? Most of the guys above pitch in colder spring climates. would be a good idea to see this data after may and june.
Maybe the radar gun is just messed up in San Fransisco?