Hey, bounce back week! After a split week with two very bad suggestions, we rebounded a bit and only Anthony Rizzo kept the streamers from being perfect (sorry about Wade LeBlanc). It’s a bit of a stream-heavy weekend, with 28 of the 60 scheduled starters on Friday and Saturday sitting below the 50% ownership tag, but they’re a bit light on upside plays. Nonetheless, let’s dive in. As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership, roughly, when the streamers available allow.
Carlos Villanueva (48% owned) – Nope, he’s not as good as the numbers suggest right now. He’s got a 2.29 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, neither of which will last too long. But this shouldn’t be the weekend it corrects – the Reds can’t hit righties right now to save their lives, and their whiff-heavy ways should allow ‘Loso to continue to rack up a surprising number of strikeouts. I understand some trepidation here with Votto and Choo stroking northpaws well, but the lineup has been struggling a great deal beyond that pair and Todd Frazier in the early going. I wouldn’t stake my reputation on this one, but five innings and seven strikeouts is a reasonable expectation.
Jose Fernandez (21%) – Let’s give the kid another shot before we write him off. The ERA has jumped to 4.50 after a trio of mediocre starts but the FIP is still a reasonable 3.68. Add in nearly a strikeout per inning, and he’s ownable in deeper leagues as is. But this weekend he draws the Phillies, who aren’t the powerhouse they once were. In fact, Philadelphia is posting just a .308 wOBA against righties, and they’re hardly walking at all, giving Fernandez a bit of a buffer with his control. Last time he faced the Phillies, he shut them down over six innings with just four baserunners; this turn may not be quite that strong, but it will be helpful for your ratios.
Wade Davis (7%) – He’s been dropped in a boatload of leagues, and with good reason. He’s had a couple of horrific starts in a row and could eventually be ticketed for the bullpen. However, he’s got a good set-up to redeem himself and buy more time to figure it out in the rotation. The White Sox strike out plenty, and Davis can get whiffs. The White Sox rarely walk, allowing Davis some wiggle room around the strike zone. And the White Sox don’t hit, posting just a .295 wOBA against righties in the early going, thanks in large part to their terrible on-base ability. Alex Rios is the only regular hitting right now, and it’s a good time for Davis, and risk-inviting fantasy owners, to take advantage.
Jonathan Pettibone (1%) – Pettibone draws the Marlins, which in many cases is a set-it-and-forget-it stream decision. Pettibone has a ho-hum 4.47 FIP in the early going (just two starts) but had shown an ability to get strikeouts and limit walks prior to reaching Triple-A last year. Against a Marlins squad that rarely wins, rarely walks and has just a .257 wOBA against right handers, he’s likely in for the best start of his young career.
Week 4 Average: 6.2 IP, 3 W, 3.65 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 1.1 WHIP, 5K, 3-of-4 successful
Season Average: 5.5 IP, 1.5 W, 5.19 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.4 WHIP, 4.5 K, 9-of-16 successful
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