You got a bonus pick last week and we still killed it overall. Edwin Jackson was the only ho-hum start, posting a decent ERA but failing to strike many batters out or secure a victory. The rest were on point, though, so let’s try and ride that momentum for what might be the final edition of “Stream Aim Fire” before we move to a new format. As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership wherever possible (this week it wasn’t, really).
I also want to note quickly that if the Arz/SD series were in Petco, I’d be rolling with Stults, McCarthy and Cashner. As it is, though, it’s going to be nearly 100 degrees at Chase Field, pumping up the likely run scoring environment for that series. Chase has been uncommonly friendly so far but won’t be as things heat up.
A.J. Griffin (49% owned) – The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks up a bit from his stellar rookie season, but Griffin is still a decent fantasy option. The decline in ground ball rate is also of some concern, as is the ridiculous 24.1% line drive rate. So why stream a 4.20 FIP given all of these negative indicators? In a word, Astros. The Streamin’ ‘Stros continue to be an effective strategy (and unfortunately the Marlins don’t provide us with any options for Friday and Saturday), as they have a below-average wOBA and a well above-average strikeout rate. Last time he faced Houston, he posted 8 strikeouts in six innings, allowing eight baserunners and just a pair of runs. Dial it up again.
Ricky Nolasco (2%) – Since I’m not using McCarthy this week, as a blogger I’m contractually obligated to talk about Nolasco instead. As always, Nolasco is underperforming his peripherals, furthering his reputation as the anti-Cain. But a 3.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP are serviceable. Plus, when you don’t walk anyone and are playing against a team that rarely walks in the White Sox, you give yourself a bit more room for error. The South Siders also strikeout more than an average squad and have just a .300 wOBA against righties, setting Nolasco up well for everything but a win. Thanks again, Marlins.
Jonathan Pettibone (5%) – The Nationals are averaging less than three runs a game over their last dozen. They’ve been held to two runs or less eight times in that span. The offense is sputtering, posting a .654 OPS as a unit with just a .289 on-base percentage. Bryce Harper is the only stick that’s swinging. Pettibone, meanwhile, has been making the smoke-and-mirrors thing work to a 3.00 ERA. The peripherals are terrible (4.84 FIP, thanks to his tiny strikeout rate), but you can survive against Washington without missing bats.
Week 7 Average: 7.7 IP, 0.6 W, 1.40 ERA, 3.57 FIP,0.9 WHIP, 4.2 K, 4-of-5 successful
Season Average: 5.9 IP, 0.4 W, 4.29 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 4.2 K, 17-of-29 successful
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