First a look at the running totals through half of week nine:
Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:
Ryan Vogelsong – 33.3% ESPN/31% Y!/68% own, 43% start CBS – v. WAS (.315), v. COL (.348)
There are typically two schools of thought when it comes to recommendations. Oftentimes, it’ll boil down to a young, unproven guy with some strikeout potential that some people haven’t quite gotten wind of. Other times, a safe veteran can be the play, where a win is perhaps more likely the the ceiling on strikeouts may be stunted. Vogelsong is sort of a mix of the pair, as a not-so-young gun at 36 (37 in July), but not necessarily a low-ceiling strikeout guy this season (7.8 per 9). The Colorado matchup looks scary on the surface, but check out the wOBA splits for them:
Home: .402 wOBA
Road: .301 wOBA
I’ll take my chances with Vogelsong at AT&T twice next week (2.15 home ERA/4.88 road ERA).
Jarred Cosart – 0.7% ESPN/4% Y!/22% own, 11% start CBS – @ARI (.315), v. TBR (.304)
Cosart is well known for his amazing ERA and shoddy peripherals last year (1.95 ERA, more walks than Ks), and while they’ve only marginally improved this year (6.4 K/9; 4.2 BB/9), it’s more a “what have you done lately” dynamic that’s impressive with Cosart. Since his cataclysmic start versus the otherworldly A’s offense on Apr. 18 (7 ER, one out recorded), Cosart has been absolute nails. In eight starts, the 24-year-old righty has a 2.95 ERA and allowed a triple-slash of .253/.332/.326. The peripherals still aren’t strong (33/21 K/BB in 48.2 IP), but I still think they show growth. I like both of these matchups for Cosart as well, especially with the Astros rolling.
Josh Collmenter – 3.6% ESPN/8% Y!/33% own, 25% start CBS – v. HOU (.310), @LAD (.320)
Collmenter will actually square off against Cosart on Monday in Arizona. And while there isn’t much flashy about Collmenter, he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any outing all season long. That doesn’t necessarily make him blow-up proof, but that sort of stability is something to clutch onto. The Dodger matchup may in fact be a bit scary, but we’ll take our chances on Houston even as they’ve started to swing the sticks a bit better (.327 June wOBA, .331 May wOBA)..
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