Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 7.1-7.7

Here are this week’s recommendations, with ownership figures help from Twitter pal Zach Swanson:

Phil Hughes – 16.1% ESPN/32% Yahoo! – @MIN (.311 team wOBA), v. BAL (.333)

Hughes hasn’t been all that great this year (4.82/4.40/4.43), but his peripherals are almost all identical to last year, when he was a +2.3 win pitcher with 16 wins, a 4.23 ERA, and solid strikeout rates. The penchant for home runs is a bit troubling (1.7 per 9 in ‘12/1.5 per 9 in ‘13), but the Twins don’t hit many. That may only be one half of this week’s matchups for Hughes, but it’s not a strong week for options here either.

Roberto Hernandez – 0.7% ESPN/2% Yahoo! – @HOU (.297), v. CWS (.292)

Hernandez is up to most of the same tricks that made him a solid mid-rotation guy for a spell in Cleveland, primarily including a solid groundball rate (51.4%) that while good, still pales in comparison to his impressive 57.9% career mark. But Hernandez’ is right around his career strand rate (a bit low), and that in conjunction with a less-than-ideal HR rate and lots of balls in play have made Hernandez’ pitching-slash a bit unwholesome (4.98/4.50/3.45).

It’s still possible to see some good projection for Hernandez. His strikeout rate of 7.4 per 9 is almost two full whiffs more than his career mark, and he’s shaved a full walk of his career marks too. This week is a good time to take a step forward, as both of these offenses are markedly worse than league average (.313 wOBA)

Samuel Deduno – 2.7% ESPN/3% Yahoo! – v. NYY (.297), @TOR (.318)

Career evolutions around the age of 30 rarely take place, so there’s plenty good reason for pessimism surrounding Deduno’s solid body of 43.1 innings this season. But he’s limited the free pass in ways never thought possible (2.9 per 9 versus career mark of 5.0) and gotten groundballs by the bucketload (60.7%) thanks in large part to a phenomenal amount of sink on his fastball (3.2 z-movement draws parallels to noted enthusiasts Justin Masterson and Doug Fister).

But for now, keep an eye on the walk rate. Deduno’s stuff is good enough to rack up strikeouts, but as the strikeouts rise, so too can the walks. That’s going to be the danger with Deduno, whom skipper Ron Gardenhire calls “effectively wild.” If he can stay within his game as he’s shown so far, he should be an effective spot-starter for fantasy teams this week. Deduno and Hughes will actually square off at Target Field on Tuesday.

Previous Results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin SloweyUbaldo JimenezJoe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe BlantonJames McDonaldEric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade DavisCarlos VillanuevaPatrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio TeheranJason HammelGarrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott DiamondNick TepeschAndrew Cashner)
Week 6: 2-3, 32.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (Justin GrimmJuan NicasioHector Santiago)
Week 7: 1-0, 29 IP, 3.41 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP (Julio TeheranPhil HughesScott Kazmir)
Week 8: 1-0, 34.2 IP, 4.93 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP (Jhoulys ChacinKevin SloweyDan Straily)
Week 9: 3-1, 34 IP, 2.65 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 0.94 WHIP (John DanksAndrew CashnerChris Tillman)
Week 10: 4-0, 35.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 1.12 WHIP (Tony CingraniCorey KluberJohn Lackey)
Week 11: 0-1, 27 IP, 5.67 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP (Dillon GeeDan StrailyUbaldo Jimenez)
Week 12*: 0-2, 19 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.8 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP (Esmil Rogers, Kevin Correia, Eric Stults)

—————————————————————–
Total: 19-18 (.514), 351.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP
League Averages (Starters): .495 win percentage, 4.07 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP




Print This Post

In addition to Rotographs, Warne is a Minnesota Twins beat reporter for 105 The Ticket's Cold Omaha website as well as a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com


12 Responses to “Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 7.1-7.7”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Kaline's Ghost says:

    What about Justin Grimm?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. johnnycuff says:

    just wanted to say that i appreciate you posting league averages for comparison. i wish all regular waver wire authors would do the same.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. pudieron89 says:

    instead of listing the wins as a percentage of decisions shouldn’t you list wins as a percentage of starts? the way it is seems a bit disingenuous.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Cliff says:

      Seems more like the same thing. His “decisions” essentially count for 1 start. Why would he list their overall winning %? He’s trying to express quantitatively how he’s done so far predicting successful streamers, and not just how pitcher X has done this season. That would be pointless for him.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Ruki Motomiya says:

        I think the point he was making is that, since this is based on streaming, the record should be based on how many starts were made, rather than their W/L record, since a no descision is the same as a loss for fantasy purposes (IE If he had 3 wins and a no descision, it’d be a .750 winning percentage, not a 100% winning percentage)

        No idea if this would be a good idea, just saying what I think the OP was trying to say.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Then why not multiply the number of weeks played by 6? I think it’s safe to assume six starts in each week (though sometimes guys get demoted, hurt, or bumped from the rotation).

        It’s just not a statistic I’m interested in adding to my spreadsheet. I don’t say that maliciously, I just have a lot of them to keep up with as is.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Don Gately says:

    Thoughts on Tyler Chatwood (@ SD, @LAD)?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Billy M says:

    Thoughts on streaming options for tomorrow: Andrew Casher @Mia or Zack Wheeler Was?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>