First a look at the running totals through week 14 / the All Star break:
Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:
Jacob deGrom – 31.9% ESPN/31% Y!/59% own, 27% start CBS – @SEA (.299), @MIL (.320)
deGrom has sort of come out of nowhere, as a right-hander one strikeout off a one per inning pace despite never matching that at any minor league level of his four seasons on the Mets farm. deGrom has pretty good heat (in the 93-94 mph average range), and has found double-digit whiff rates on four of his five preferred offerings (four-seamer, slider, change, curve). And while his four-seamer and slider are inherently elevatable — is that a word? — he also gets healthy grounder rates on his two-seamer, change, and curve. That level of swing-and-miss stuff combined with grounders when he needs them suggests there may be more than what meets the eye here. And as is the case with most of the recs here week to week, this’ll be a come for the Mariners, stay for the Brewers kind of situation.
Collin McHugh – 9.0% ESPN/23% Y!/43% own, 7% start CBS – @OAK (.323), v. MIA (.309)
The belief is that McHugh will return to make his start Tuesday versus the A’s, but check back here for another rec in the event he has a setback. Wins have evaded McHugh for much of his career (0-8 entering this season, 4-8 this year), but the secondary numbers have looked good for the 27-year-old right-hander who has perhaps been overshadowed by teammate Dallas Keuchel this season, but — with an adjustment for innings — has been nearly as good. McHugh’s jam is the curveball, which has spiked with a 17.1 percent whiff rate this season. That’s a steady three-year increase from his first big league season, though this is also the first season he’s thrown more than 116 curves. The A’s matchup is bound to be pretty tough, but the Marlins should make up for it. McHugh’s flyball profile plays up in both parks, for what it’s worth.
Ryan Vogelsong – 11.0% ESPN/17% Y!/52% own, 22% start CBS – @PHI (.292), v. LAD (.321)
Vogelsong has been quietly awesome for the Giants this season, with a 3.86 ERA and 7.7 K/9 through 19 starts. He’s also had two stints of six games without giving up a home run — both of which amount to over a month without someone taking him deep. April wasn’t friendly to the 36-year-old righty (37 on Tuesday), but since then he’s gone 5-6 with a 3.44 ERA and a .679 OPS against. And again, the Phillies matchup is ultra accommodating, while the Dodgers one is a bit more difficult.
Print This Post