First a look at the running totals through week 15 (and an apology for being extremely late this week due to a 10-year high school reunion):
Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:
Nathan Eovaldi – 13.7% ESPN/22% Y!/55% own, 28% start CBS – v. WAS (.312), v. PIT (.320)
The Eovaldi rec is a tough one, as he’s gotten absolutely rocked in his last five starts (0-3, 6.39 ERA, and just 14 strikeouts in 31 innings). That’s brought his K/9 down to 6.2, and has bumped his ERA to a season-high 4.20. He’s also seen a decrease in groundball rate, now checking in at a subpar 42.9 percent. Still, Eovaldi gets the rec because he’s still throwing smoke, and outside of Arizona’s Chase Anderson there aren’t a ton of other options. Hopefully Eovaldi can find a second wind; he’ll need it.
Jake Odorizzi – 18.5% ESPN/34% Y!/83% own, 68% start CBS – v. MIL (.321), v. LAA (.330)
If you get annoyed with this rec based on how much he’s owned, keep in mind he’s also facing two top-seven offenses and has only won six of 20 starts so far. Like teammates Chris Archer and David Price, Odorizzi is on a roll of late. In his last eight starts, dating back to June 10, Odorizzi is 4-2 with a 2.39 ERA, .607 OPS against, and 9.7 K/9. Odorizzi can get dusted up for home runs quite routinely, as he’s allowed nearly one per nine innings despite a sub nine percent HR/FB rate. But with a groundball rate of 33.4 percent, there’s ample opportunity for him to allow the longball. Luckily the Trop suppresses home runs pretty well so far this season (89/90 HR park factor LHB/RHB per StatCorner). That should hopefully help him overcome these two tough offenses, who are Nos. 6-7 in home runs.
Trevor Bauer – 7.0% ESPN/20% Y!/75% own, 55% start CBS – v. SEA (.296), v. TEX (.308)
Bauer, like Eovaldi, is one whose season has been a bit underwhelming given the start he had and the expectations that came with it. Through four starts, Bauer had fanned 29 in 22.1 innings, and was carrying a 3.63 ERA. Maybe the .247/.326/.435 line — good, but not great — should have foretold the things to come. Since then — dating back to early June — Bauer’s had a 4.04 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and 21 walks in 62.1 innings — all coming with an oddly better (arguably) line of .279/.330/.417. Bauer’s rocking a high BABIP so far this season, more a testament to the shaky Indians outfield defense than anything — dead last as a team in UZR/150, UZR, and fourth-worst in RZR — but as a flyball pitcher he should still hopefully see some good regression down the stretch. At least better than the .325 BABIP he currently has.
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