Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 8.4-8.10

First a look at the running totals through half of week 16:

31-21 record
4.00 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Kevin Gausman – 4.4% ESPN/14% Y!/56% own, 31% start CBS – @WAS (.310), v. STL (.305)

As a brief aside, it’s a bit odd to see the Cardinals offense that far down — 21st among MLB in wOBA — but in the end that’s part of what makes Gausman such a favorable option this week. Gausman has done a very nice job for the Orioles this year, especially given how many times he’s been up and down — he’s only made three of his ten starts this year on regular four days rest. The strikeout deficiency (6.0 per nine/15.8 percent) is a bit odd for someone whose average fastball checks in at 95.2 mph, and even more so when considering his solid forkball (20.7 SwStr%), but in some ways it makes sense when considering his 90 percent-plus contact rate on fastballs both in and out of the zone. A hittable fastball isn’t the end of the world, but it is a bit odd when it’s that hard.

Dillon Gee – 18.4% ESPN/26% Y!/72% own, 35% start CBS – v. SFG (.301), @PHI (.297)

Gee is just downright steady — 22-22 w/ 3.79 ERA over past three years and nearly 400 innings — and it surely helps to have a pair of bottom five offenses opposing him this week. It couldn’t come at a better time for the right-hander, who has allowed four, six, and five earned runs in his last three starts respectively (8.10 ERA), swelling his season ERA from 2.56 to 3.77.

Phil Hughes – 26.5% ESPN/43% Y!/81% own, 44% start CBS – v. SDP (.276), @OAK (.324)

The Padres matchup is phenomenal for Hughes (last in MLB in wOBA by 20 (!) points), and it comes at home, where the right-hander is inexplicably struggling despite his flyball heavy approach. Right now, Hughes has a home ERA of 5.51, and a road ERA of 2.92. That makes this week’s matchups a bit better, as he gets the punchless Pads at home before heading to the unfriendly confines of O.Co, which has a 75/95 HR park factor (and 88-93 for flyballs, for what it’s worth) and a team which just traded away one of its best power threats (Yoenis Cespedes). This might be a good chance for Hughes to get back on a roll and get that ERA under 4.00.




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In addition to Rotographs, Warne is a former Minnesota Twins beat writer for 1500 ESPN Twin Cities, and current sportswriter for Sports Data LLC in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com


6 Responses to “Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 8.4-8.10”

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  1. phil hughes says:

    don’t worry guys, instead of trying to catch the ball i will just duck next time.

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  2. Bryan says:

    The strikeout deficiency (6.0 per nine/15.8 percent) is a bit odd for someone whose average fastball checks in at 95.2 mph, and even more so when considering his solid forkball (20.7 SwStr%), but in some ways it makes sense when considering his 90 percent-plus contact rate on fastballs both in and out of the zone.

    Any indication he’s tipping pitches? Or even that he’s not mixing in the other stuff enough that dude’s are just sitting fastball? It just seems exceptionally odd to have that kind of contact rate on heat like that…

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  3. Mike says:

    Brandon, any thoughts on Duffy for this week?

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  4. JMH says:

    What about Charlie Morton? Facing the Marlins and Padres at home where he’s been pretty good this season.

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