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Super 2 Ownership Rates

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On May 22, 2011 @ 4:15 pm In Meta Analysis,Prospects,Strategy,Waiver Wire | 24 Comments

Teams try to avoid having a rookie get labeled with the Super 2 status so they can pay the rookie less over their career. The call up time is coming soon, so it now looks like it may be time to pick up one of these rookies before other fantasy owners in your league.

Teams avoiding the Super 2 status usually have an idea when the deadline has passed. Last year for example both Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton were both promoted to the majors on June 8th. Generally, fantasy owners will take note of possible players that will be promoted and seem to pick them up a few days early. I never knew when owners started picking up these players, so I tracked a few of the players since this season started.

At the beginning of the season, I asked my fellow writers at Fangraphs for names of players that may be held back to avoid Super 2 status. About 15 players were mentioned and so far this season, 11 of them still remain in the minors. Here are the players I tracked:

Mike Moustakas
Dustin Ackley
Desmond Jennings
Lonnie Chisenhall
Jordan Lyles
Jason Kipnis
Jarrod Parker
Devin Mesoraco
Mark Rogers
Chris Carter
Brett Lawrie

Of these 11 players, 3 (Moustakas, Ackley and Jennings) have maintained some level of ownership rate at ESPN. Here are the ownership rates since the beginning of the season:

It can be seen from these 3 players that their ownership was higher before the season started and dropped to a minimum about a month into the season. In the last couple weeks, the ownership rate has begun to creep up. All the ownership rates are near or less than 1%, so in most leagues these players are available. I have no idea how much the rates will continue to increase (that is why I am tracking the data), but it may be time to pick up any of these players if you plan on it. I will continue tracking these players until the call ups begin and a few weeks after the call ups. I will then report back with the final results.


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