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Ten Bold Predictions, A Mostly Terrible Retrospective

Posted By Michael Barr On October 3, 2012 @ 9:15 am In Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Alrighty then, let’s just get the self-flagellation out of the way so I can enjoy the playoffs. Back in March, I was cajoled into providing my ten bold predictions for the 2012 season, and looking back on them, I think we can successfully get me out of the bold prediction business.

This will be quick and painful for me, but perhaps it will give you some amusement to take your mind off of any fantasy baseball related failures that this day concludes.

1. Dan Haren will win 20 games.

Since I’m going to take a beating here, I might as well tell you that I picked Dan Haren for the AL Cy Young too. It was an argument wrapped up in his rotten luck with run support in 2011, and figuring the addition of some guy named Al might help that, I thought he’d have a darn fine chance of racking up the wins. He rewarded me with 12 and what was probably his worst season since he was a rookie with the Cardinals. Super.

2. Hanley Ramirez will go 30-30.

24 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He was certainly useful as a shortstop in fantasy leagues, but overall, his counting stats were just disappointing.

3. Billy Butler will hit 25 home runs or more and drive in 100+ runs

Well, that really wasn’t all that bold, now was it? Coming off 15 and 19 home run seasons, it wasn’t like he was exactly demonstrating home run derby material, but he’d hit 21 before so the potential was certainly there. 30 would have been more bold, and he might just do it.

4. Aramis Ramirez will hit fewer than 20 home runs.

Gah. .328/.375/.612 in the second half with 17 home runs (so far) pretty much sunk this one. Another great year from Ramirez.

5. Asdrubal Cabrera will hit 15 or fewer home runs and steal 15 or fewer bases

Sixteen home runs and nine stolen bases didn’t make any owners happy if they were expecting 25 HR and 17 SB again, but Cabrera bested me here.

6. Carl Crawford will steal more than 50 bases.

Can I stop now?

7. Mike Morse hits fewer than 20 home runs

If he were at all healthy this year, he’d have hit plenty more than 17, but his ISO did dip down to .169 after that .247 from 2011. I’ll take credit for this one, but it’s kind of a cheapie.

8. Chris Carpenter fails to win 10 games.

Well, this was written before we all found out he wouldn’t really be pitching much this season, but this one feels about as good as the Morse prediction.

9. Chone Figgins becomes fantasy relevant again.

See #6.

10. Adrian Gonzalez will hit 40+ home runs

Sigh.

It turns out my best prediction was one I didn’t even make. I was about to predict A.J. Burnett for 15+ wins and 195 strikeouts but then he took a foul ball off his face and it looked like maybe his time in Pittsburgh was going to be cursed. Burnett has won 16 and should get one more start, although I doubt he’s going to strike out 18 batters to get to 195. But in terms of boldness, that was probably the winner of the bunch.

Anyone want stock tips?


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