The Daily Grind: 4-11-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Frustration Set In
  2. DFS Pitchers
  3. Traditional Fantasy Picks
  4. That There Table

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1. Dealing with frustration?

Yesterday was mixed for me. I fell in love with the FanDuel lineup I built and entered it in more dollars worth of contests than my entire first week (not hard, I entered about $10 in week one). The lineup I built should, would, and could win tournaments every day of the year, but yesterday it flopped hard. It’s frustrating to watch a perfectly crafted lineup fail to get out of the box, but that’s the dual nature of gambling and baseball. These things happen.

When you’re confronted with an extended losing streak, the urge is to look in the mirror and change what you’re doing. Yesterday you were beat by Sam Fuld, so today you’re going to pony up for those overpriced fringe guys. Wrong. Losing can inform you of a bad process, but it can also be nothing. You should constantly reexamine your process, but remember to keep theory in mind. Just because you’re getting beat by crappy players in sub-optimal lineup positions doesn’t mean you should also use them.

The day was “mixed” because my consultee barely cashed in some tournaments and won all his 50/50’s. We were on a mini-losing streak due to bad pitching.

2. DFS Picks

They’re all night games today, so you’ll have a lot of choices. Let’s look at some pitcher plays.

For $4,200 Carlos Carrasco against the White Sox could be a steal. Or maybe he’ll get mashed, the conditions are right for a few home runs.

Tyler Skaggs costs $5,400 and faces the Mets. There isn’t much to worry about in that lineup for Skaggs. His home stadium is also a poor place for home runs, which should help him.

On the other side of that matchup is Dillon Gee for $5,700. He’ll also benefit from the stadium but has to avoid Mike Trout.

Rick Porcello costs $6,200 for his game against the Padres. Their offense has struggled to get off the ground, just look out for lefties.

A.J. Burnett at $6,600 is remarkably cheap for a pitcher of his quality. The matchup and stadium aren’t fantastic, plus there is rain in the schedule.

If you want to go expensive, Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez, Jose Fernandez, and Madison Bumgarner all have fantastic matchups, parks, or both. They cost between $8,800 and $9,800.

3. Saturday Pitchers

We’ll start the hitter picks soon.

To Start: Brett Anderson is a risky pick for tomorrow. He’ll face the Giants in San Francisco, which gives him a good matchup and park. The bigger question is whether or not he’s still a good pitcher.

Nate Eovaldi is going to run into trouble with his fastball heavy repertoire, but the Elder Phillies probably aren’t the team to dole out the pain.

Taylor Jordan is a decent pitcher. The Braves strikeout a lot. Those factors could produce a winner.

To Exploit: Alfredo Simon pitched well his last time out, but he’s not a starter. Getting past five innings is going to be a problem.

As I keep saying, I really like Felipe Paulino. I want him to do well. The platoon happy Indians probably won’t let it happen.

It’s not that Carlos Villanueva is bad. He just has the misfortune of squaring off against Adam Wainwright.

Drew Hutchison versus Bud Norris at Camden Yards? George Takei says “Oh My!”

Tanner Scheppers the rotation pitcher has not been all that and a bag of chips. Not even one chip. The Astros aren’t world beaters at the plate, but they aren’t bums either.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Four stadiums may see some kind of rain, but it doesn’t look like any postponements are imminent. Be wary. The stadiums are Citizen’s Bank Park, Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium, and Great American Ball Park.

The Link. So we have a lot of green games tonight, which tells me to build lineups around pitchers. Keep in mind that some of those green games will be played in rainy or drizzly conditions.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, RotoWorld, and Rotoballer. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


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Nolan L
Guest
Nolan L

Are we sure facing the Giants still qualifies as a good matchup for a pitcher? I’ll grant you AT&T is a pitcher-friendly venue, but SF is third in runs scored so far this year and tied for second in home runs. Small sample size, I know, but based off what we’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t feel great starting a guy like Anderson against them.

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