The Daily Grind: 4-17-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. What not to do
  2. DFS picks
  3. Friday picks
  4. Table

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1. What not to do

Yesterday I was beaten in a tournament by a guy who played Cliff Lee, Chris Johnson, Evan Gattis, and B.J. Upton. In case you didn’t know, the Phillies were playing the Braves, so this foolish owner stacked against himself. He got very lucky in that Lee threw a 13 strikeout complete game, and Gattis hit a bomb. The reason you don’t ever want to do this – especially in a tournament – is because it destroys the number of ways you can win. A tournament is all about maximizing points. That’s why we stack lineups. Using a stack against your pitcher is like taking points away from yourself.

Also I’m pretty sure Upton is the worst pick you can take. I’m only half snarking.

2. DFS Picks

Early: There are five early games today. In the Factor Grid (section 4), four of them are labelled red and one is labelled green. Everybody in the world is going to be in on Erasmo Ramirez versus Tanner Scheppers, and you should be too. The alternatives just aren’t stackable.

Late: Franklin Morales versus Ian Kennedy offers an enticing opportunity for lefty hitters. Of course, Morales himself is a lefty, which could counteract the good weather and park factors. Then again, he’s pitched poorly out of the rotation.

I don’t dislike Taylor Jordan. I expect to recommend using him several times this season. I do think a matchup against Adam Wainwright is the kiss of death. Of course, ask Tom Koehler about his last outing against Stephen Strasburg.

Night baseball in Minnesota will be very cold. If the bats can get loose, Mike Pelfrey and Dustin McGowan could be in danger.

The sweetest stack of the night is in Houston, where the Royals face Scott Feldman. He’s allowed one run, walked eight, and struck out seven in 20.2 innings. Oh and he HIT five batters and features a .119 BABIP against. #RegressionIsComing

3.What’s up on Friday

Pitchers to Start: After watching Alfredo Simon‘s last start, I’ve changed my mind about him. He’s usable against bad lineups like the Cubs. His breaking balls were much better than I remembered it, and he’s always had a nice fastball. He was working a nasty sinker, slutter, splitter combo.

If you’re partial to groundballers with a chance to win, you can take either side of the Kyle Lohse versus Charlie Morton game. Of course, they’re pretty evenly matched which hurts your odds a bit.

Like Feldman, Aaron Harang has benefited from a .191 BABIP. Unlike Feldman, he’s pitched pretty well even without the luck. I’m open to riding the hot hand, plus he’s playing the Mets.

Nate Eovaldi is a high risk/reward play whenever it’s his turn. He’s at home against a tepid Mariners offense.

Tyson Ross has filthy movement. Sometimes he can’t control it, so be careful.

Pitchers to Exploit: Felipe Paulino belongs in the bullpen. I was hoping he’d begin the season there. Tomorrow he must somehow best the Rangers.

Enjoy the Denver brewed special recipe run sauce, brought to you by Jonathan Pettibone and Tyler Chatwood.

Hitters (power): You can try a couple left-handed Athletics against Jarred Cosart. Josh Reddick comes to mind, but his bat is frigid.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is batting fifth when he starts. Tomorrow might be one of those starts.

Chris Johnson should have cleanup duty against Jon Niese.

David Murphy should like facing Drew Hutchison.

Hitters (speed): Ben Revere and Tony Gwynn Jr. (if he starts) are solid speed plays. Maybe Charlie Blackmon will be leading off for the Rockies.

Rajai Davis is facing a righty, but Jered Weaver is a soft tosser. I’m not worried about the lack of platoon advantage.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It remains cold in Minnesota, although the rain/snow threat is gone today. It’ll be a chilly doubleheader. The rest of the league is dry although some games will be a bit crisp.

The Link. It looks like the two games in Texas and one in Chicago are the games to target.

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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, MLB Trade Rumors, and The Fake Baseball. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


14 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 4-17-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Repper says:

    You don’t think stacking against an ailing Burnett at PHI is a good idea?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      It’s not a bad idea. Which is as close as I can come to answering your question.

      The cold weather and lack of LH bombers have me thinking this is a neutral matchup. If he wasn’t hurt I’d be using him everywhere.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • dklcr says:

      if BB is one of your hitting parameters, it’s probably a great idea.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. FeslenR says:

    everyone should ALWAYS be active when Pelfrey starts

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. chris says:

    I’m a fan of the Burnett stack myself. He’s pitching through an injury which seems to be affecting him and, cold as it sounds, that seems like something that can be exploited.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Kris says:

    Vargas vs Min and Martin perez vs. CHW tomorrow as well. Where would you slot them?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Brad Johnson says:

    I like Vargas a lot more than Perez based on park and opponent lineup.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. amoonguss99 says:

    Rangers offense is +wRC of < 80 last wk and 88 on the year. They'll prob make me look stupid today but outside of Choo as a spot hitter my LUs steered away from them… and I prob will at least until they start to show some worth (tho w the way I'm running lately that'll probably be today hahah)

    Granted Erasmo has posted xfips of 5.6, 7.6 and 3.3… I just don't think the rangers have any pulse atm

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. drewcorb says:

    Who do you like better ROS: Tyson Ross or Robbie Erlin? I liked Ross going into the season but had never even heard of Erlin. They both look pretty solid now but I’m having trouble distinguishing them from each other. They look pretty similar.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. James says:

    Where can I find a daily probable starting pitchers chart that posts their wOBA splits?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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