- A couple observations
- DFS time
- For Monday
Yesterday I said to stack hitters in Boston, Texas, and Colorado. I did not say to use Rays or Cubs hitters, yet those were the top scoring offenses for their respective time slots. Between weak hitting and bad bets on Tony Cingrani and Corey Kluber, my rosters performed the worst they have all season. On DraftKings, my lineups came as close to dead last as I’ve ever been (279 out of 285). FanDuel didn’t turn out as badly because I splurged for a 19 point Max Scherzer. Still, only two hitters bothered to provide offense so I wound up with 29 points.
I felt great about my rosters yesterday. It was the second time this season I was really excited about my choices and it was the second time they flopped hard. It’s important to remember that a very optimized lineup is a gentle nudge in your favor, not a guarantee of winnings.
2. DFS Picks
There are way too many stacks today. It’s some kind of ridiculous.
Hector Santiago is quite hittable for a lineup like the Tigers.
The Phil Hughes stack is always a good choice.
As is the Carlos Villanueva stack.
And speaking of good stacks, Erik Johnson draws the Rangers matchup in Texas.
3. Monday Sauce
Almost everybody is playing tomorrow, and they’re almost all night games.
Pitchers to Start: Travis Wood is starting to look like a must own. He’s buffed his cutter usage, which in turn has buffed his whiff percent up to 10.9 percent. Now he’s striking guys out and limiting walks, which makes him look like an ace. Even with regression, he should be usable.
Wily Peralta was a breakout candidate entering the season. He had the stuff to succeed, but not the command and control. The early results look positive, although he’s seemingly become a pitch to contact pitcher. Maybe that’s a good thing when 60 percent of balls in play are on the ground. In any case, a start against Andrew Cashner and the Padres isn’t the best matchup. Nor is it the worst.
It’s a risky play, but Paul Maholm has given almost this exact Phillies roster more than a few fits over the years.
Pitchers to Exploit: The Indians can put more than a few lefties in the lineup against Jeremy Guthrie.
The Angels aren’t the scariest offense, but they’re scary enough against a pitch to contact guy like Tanner Roark.
Through three starts, John Danks has been pretty good. As I’ve been saying, he really needs to prove himself before I stop trying to exploit him.
The Cubs have a good matchup against Bronson Arroyo, which should open up a few offensive options.
Hitters (speed): This seems like a day where Charlie Blackmon would hit leadoff.
The Braves have been sneaking Ramiro Pena in at third base against right-handed pitchers. He usually bats eighth, so this is only a very deep league play.
Rajai Davis will have the platoon advantage. I love when this happens.
J.B. Shuck will probably hit leadoff for the Angels against Roark.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
It’s sunny and warmish throughout the league today. Texas and Colorado could see isolated thunderstorms, but they shouldn’t affect the games too much. You weren’t going to use those pitchers anyway.
The Link. The usual suspects have the best combination of weather and park factors for hitters.
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