The Daily Grind: 4-20-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. A couple observations
  2. DFS time
  3. For Monday
  4. Table

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1. Observations

Yesterday I said to stack hitters in Boston, Texas, and Colorado. I did not say to use Rays or Cubs hitters, yet those were the top scoring offenses for their respective time slots. Between weak hitting and bad bets on Tony Cingrani and Corey Kluber, my rosters performed the worst they have all season. On DraftKings, my lineups came as close to dead last as I’ve ever been (279 out of 285). FanDuel didn’t turn out as badly because I splurged for a 19 point Max Scherzer. Still, only two hitters bothered to provide offense so I wound up with 29 points.

I felt great about my rosters yesterday. It was the second time this season I was really excited about my choices and it was the second time they flopped hard. It’s important to remember that a very optimized lineup is a gentle nudge in your favor, not a guarantee of winnings.

2. DFS Picks

There are way too many stacks today. It’s some kind of ridiculous.

Just when I maybe thought Brandon Morrow was something, he had a garbage outing. He’s opposed by Carlos Carrasco, who’s been dealing solely in garbage outings.

Hector Santiago is quite hittable for a lineup like the Tigers.

Brandon Maurer and Kevin Slowey could both allow crooked numbers, but they also have a nice park environment to wield their craft.

Bullpen game in Tampa between Vidal Nuno and Cesar Ramos. The Yanks used Dean Anna an inning yesterday to help keep the pen fresh.

The Phil Hughes stack is always a good choice.

As is the Carlos Villanueva stack.

And speaking of good stacks, Erik Johnson draws the Rangers matchup in Texas.

My last stack pick is the A’s against Brad Peacock. I could go deeper – Roberto Hernandez is in Denver today! – but at some point we have too much information to parse.

3. Monday Sauce

Almost everybody is playing tomorrow, and they’re almost all night games.

Pitchers to Start: Travis Wood is starting to look like a must own. He’s buffed his cutter usage, which in turn has buffed his whiff percent up to 10.9 percent. Now he’s striking guys out and limiting walks, which makes him look like an ace. Even with regression, he should be usable.

Wily Peralta was a breakout candidate entering the season. He had the stuff to succeed, but not the command and control. The early results look positive, although he’s seemingly become a pitch to contact pitcher. Maybe that’s a good thing when 60 percent of balls in play are on the ground. In any case, a start against Andrew Cashner and the Padres isn’t the best matchup. Nor is it the worst.

It’s a risky play, but Paul Maholm has given almost this exact Phillies roster more than a few fits over the years.

Pitchers to Exploit: The Indians can put more than a few lefties in the lineup against Jeremy Guthrie.

The Angels aren’t the scariest offense, but they’re scary enough against a pitch to contact guy like Tanner Roark.

Through three starts, John Danks has been pretty good. As I’ve been saying, he really needs to prove himself before I stop trying to exploit him.

The Cubs have a good matchup against Bronson Arroyo, which should open up a few offensive options.

I guess Ryan Vogelsong got pushed back? Here he is again, this time against Jorge de la Rosa.

Hitters (power): John Mayberry Jr. should be in the game against Maholm. Marlon Byrd is also largely available and should bat cleanup against the lefty.

You can take a stab at Chris Heisey against Francisco Liriano.

The real prize of the day is Jonny Gomes against Wei-Yin Chen.

Hitters (speed): This seems like a day where Charlie Blackmon would hit leadoff.

The Braves have been sneaking Ramiro Pena in at third base against right-handed pitchers. He usually bats eighth, so this is only a very deep league play.

Rajai Davis will have the platoon advantage. I love when this happens.

J.B. Shuck will probably hit leadoff for the Angels against Roark.

Speaking of leadoff men, Norichika Aoki‘s ownership is falling, yet he’ll bat first against Zach McAllister tomorrow.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s sunny and warmish throughout the league today. Texas and Colorado could see isolated thunderstorms, but they shouldn’t affect the games too much. You weren’t going to use those pitchers anyway.

The Link. The usual suspects have the best combination of weather and park factors for hitters.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


15 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 4-20-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. amoonguss99 says:

    Concerned about the weather in Texas?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      The report I saw wasn’t concerning. Just 30% chance of passing storms which usually works out to 0% of anything. Should I take a closer look?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Brad Johnson says:

        None of my lineups are even adjacent to Texas, so I’ll leave the deep dive up to you guys.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • amoonguss99 says:

        First 2 hrs are clear and then 70% for an hr. 30-40% for the rest of the time.

        If it is bad, it could be called after X IP, though I think they’ll get a large portion of the game in.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Satoshi Nakamoto says:

    50% chance of rain in denver 1 hour into the game.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Abdoozy says:

    Hi Brad, how do you feel about Mike Leake @ PIT tomorrow?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Corey says:

    19 APR 14

    “Don’t take a stab at David Hale. People are going to tell you to do it, but don’t. Trust me. There’s no need to load up on Mets, I just wanted to warn you.”

    ‘Preciate that awesome advice, Brad.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. asdfasdf says:

    Hey Brad,
    I am in a 10-team NL-Only league, and I just traded Lance Lynn and Gerardo Parra for Jayson Werth. My OF is pretty bad and I had a bunch of SP. For reference, Lynn has been worth 91 points, Parra has been worth 54, and Werth has been worth 63. (Pitchers in our league are usually worth more). Do you like this trade? Thanks a lot!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      Just based on the name value, I love it. I am extremely confused by a points system where Werth’s 123 wRC+ in 74 PA is only 9 points more than Parra’s 74 wRC+ in 90 PA.

      In a 10 team format, you should be able to find somebody better than Lynn on waivers. Maybe not right away, but eventually.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • asdfasdf says:

        Hi Brad,
        Thanks for your response! Actually it is a 10-team NL-only league, so there are very few good players on waivers. The next best SP for example is probably Marcum or someone like that. As for the point difference, sorry but Parra is actually at 51 not 54, but yeah I don’t know why there is such a small difference. Do you still like that trade considering that it is NL-only?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Brad Johnson says:

        Yea it’s still a reasonable trade, although that does affect the calculus.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. asdfasdf says:

    Yeah, I just have a lot of pitching and a lack of hitting so I figured I should do something about it. Thanks!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Dan Gladden says:

    My outfield could use a boost, should I drop swisher for Kubel, Joyce, David Murphy, or Ackley?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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