- …And we’re back
- DFS for Today
- Fantasy for Tomorrow
1. What did I miss?
Certainly not two home runs from Kyle Seager. While I didn’t have any time to watch baseball these last two days, I was able to monitor my normal fantasy teams. Nice to have Seager finally pull his weight.
What else happened that maybe didn’t show up in my fantasy stats?
2. Today’s DFS
Early: Six games fit in the early bucket. Not a single one of them is a hitter’s paradise, so we’ll have to play it by matchup.
And therein lies the rub. With Edwin Jackson, Michael Bolsinger, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco, Brandon Cumpton, and Bruce Chen on the hill, who do you exploit? Jackson and Bolsinger have a strong cross breeze to knock down the baseball. Bedard and Nolasco play in one of the least hitter friendly parks in baseball, but at least weather won’t get in the way. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are no place to stack today.
I’ll probably focus on the Diamondbacks against Edwin Jackson with a generous side helping of right-handed Twins and left-handed Rays.
Late: Only five games in the late bucket. The schedulers that be have made Thursday twice thin.
Bud Norris and Drew Hutchison are both reasonably decent pitchers, but they also both carry an implosion risk. Since the Rogers Centre is always one of the best parks for home runs, this isn’t a bad place for a do or die stack.
Brett Oberholtzer maybe isn’t as bad as I keep saying he is. He’s not a fantasy asset by any means, but he looks like he can maintain a 4.50 ERA without too many meltdowns going forward. He won’t do better because extreme fly ball pitchers don’t usually sport a 3.2 percent HR/FB.
Kyle Kendrick can get swatted around by lefties from time to time, but I’m not going to Chavez Ravine for any stacks tonight.
3. Tomorrow’s not DFS
If you want to be completely unexcited about your prospects, Henderson Alvarez will probably do just fine against the Mets. He also probably won’t record many strikeouts or the win.
The only thing hinky about Jesse Chavez‘s line is his 27.5 percent strikeout rate compared to a 8.5 percent whiff rate. He’ll probably strikeout fewer batters going forward. He’ll probably walk more guys. For now, he has a 2.93 FIP, which is all I need to know going into a game against the Astros.
Robbie Ross already made the lefty-leaning Mariners look pretty bad. We’ll see if he can do it again.
Pitchers to Exploit: Ubaldo Jimenez doesn’t have a tough assignment against the Royals, but he’s having trouble rolling ground balls and Baltimore is friendly lefty power hitters.
Let’s try out the Rays against Erik Johnson at the Chicago Slugging Grounds.
Brad Peacock is on the wrong side of the Jesse Chavez matchup. I say that because the A’s are a strong offense, not because Chavez is comparable to King Felix.
Run the Yankees lefty-stack, headlined by Kelly Johnson. Anyone better will absolutely be owned.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The weather is clear although it’s still a bit nippy at many stadiums.
The late games are hogging all the hitter friendly parks. Overall, it’s not the best day for my particular process. That probably means I’ll win with the way my luck has been running backwards over the last 10 days.
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