The Daily Grind: 4-26-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Results of our poll
  2. DFS Pickings
  3. Sunday Selections
  4. Table

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1. Poll Results

Nearly everybody who responded to my informal poll plays deep tournaments or leagues where stacking is the most viable strategy. As such, I’ll continue to focus section two on stackable pitchers. If you’re looking for pitchers to use, the previous day’s column will have my recommendations. Interact those with the table and weather warnings to find which pitchers are best.

2. Today’s Stacks

Early: We have six early games and few stacks to work with. The bad part about stacking against Hector Santiago and Vidal Nuno is they’re both lefties. The good part is they aren’t very effective lefties. Nuno is a fly ball oriented soft-tosser while Santiago features a better fastball, perhaps more extreme fly balling ways, and suspect control.

Clay Buchholz hasn’t been sharp in the early going. The Blue Jays lineup can explode for some crooked numbers, but it’s extremely top heavy.

Phil Hughes hasn’t been as terrible as his 6.43 ERA. Sure, he’s homer prone, but most of the damage against him comes courtesy of a .394 BABIP. The park is favorable today too. And here’s the part where I suggest to stack Tigers anyway.

Late: Nine games in the late column. If the Orioles game isn’t interrupted by rain, you can run Royals righties against Wei-Yin Chen and Orioles lefties against Jeremy Guthrie. I’ll be sticking to the Baltimore side.

It’s a shame it’s going to be cold in Chicago tonight. The lefty-lefty matchup of Cesar Ramos versus John Danks plays into the Cell’s 114 HR park factor for righty hitters.

Bronson Arroyo is the kind of pitcher who can shut down the Phillies without a second thought. As witnessed by his 9.50 ERA, 7.14 FIP, and 5.04 xFIP, he’s been all kinds of bad this season.

3.Tomorrow’s Targets

Pitchers to Start: Dillon Gee will face the Marlins at home. It’s a classic waiver wire start.

Taylor Jordan has been…how you say…terrible. But, so has the Padres offense and I’m betting on the arm in this one.

Wily Peralta‘s ownership is surging due to a good start to the season. He’s not a 2.19 ERA pitcher, but he probably is capable of a mid-3’s ERA. Tomorrow he faces the lowly Cubs.

Danny Salazar is very close to a demotion or a stint on the disabled list or something. But if there’s any place he can succeed, it’s AT&T Park against the Giants lineup.

The Rangers have to be happy Matt Harrison is back. He has the stuff to shutdown the lefty-heavy Mariners offense. For the record, I count Justin Smoak as a lefty, even though he’s technically a switch hitter.

I like Brandon McCarthy‘s matchup against the Phillies. I expect some strikeouts.

Pitchers to Exploit: I don’t have much respect for the Royals offense, but Miguel Gonzalez is equal opportunity about allowing bombs. I think even Ben Revere could swat one of him (no, I’ve gone too far).

I’m not sure who’s pitching for the White Sox tomorrow. It might be Hector Noesi. If it is, jump on him.

Collin McHugh was unbelievably good against the Seattle Mariners in his first start. He struck out 12, walked none, and allowed three hits over 6.2 scoreless innings. It was a big outlier game from a pitcher who’s upside is at the back of a rotation. I’m willing to bet the Athletics’ bats spank him.

Despite Salazar receiving a recommendation to start, you can continue to exploit Ryan Vogelsong.

Hitters (power): You can try Kelly Johnson against Garrett Richards.

Domonic Brown‘s ownership is declining. He might be worth a peek against McCarthy.

David Murphy is somebody to try against Vogey. If Michael Brantley happens to be available, take him first.

Chris Carter and Jesus Guzman should enjoy the platoon advantage against Tom Milone.

You’ll have some kind of Rays platoon available, we just don’t know the specifics.

You can try Lucas Duda against Tom Koehler.

Hitters (speed): Norichika Aoki has been hitting the waiver wire recently. He’s still pulling leadoff duties for the Royals.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The four games in New York, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. might see some more rain today. It looks like the day games (Yankees, Nationals) should be safe, but rain could interfere if they go past three hours. Monitor the night games. St. Louis might see a thunderstorm. A cold day in Chicago might neutralize an otherwise good target game.

The Link. Four retractable roof stadiums appear to be the safest plays for DFS, although I think it’s safe to use Yankee Stadium. There aren’t many premium pitcher locations today.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


4 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 4-26-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Will says:

    Have you seen Taylor Jordan’s 1st inning versus the rest split? Like the kid and he can be good, but good lord he kills himself right from the start. (At least he made an exception to make Pujols happy when he served up his 500th homer later in the game.)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Will says:

    Also, why does Steamer think Revere will hit two homers this year?! Does it just assume any player will do that much at the very least? I tried looking up his fly-ball distance, but that database only shows the top 300 so of course he isn’t on it…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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