- Advice for a losing streak
- DFS for today
- Fantasy action for tomorrow
- Table Time TM
1. My advice for a losing streak
Yesterday, commenter Cybo gave some advice related to gambling. Specifically, he suggested you increase your bets the more and more you lose. I quipped that’s how you get a knee cap broken by an Italian guy from Jersey, and well…I wasn’t being facetious. My own advice for a losing streak is simple, and you’re less likely to dip into the kids’ college fund.
We’ve identified DFS is about building a good process and sticking to it. If you’re losing, one of two things is happening: you have bad luck or a bad process. Self-evaluation is a challenge, you have to be honest to yourself, but you also have to be correct in your honesty. It’s just as easy to conclude a good process is bad as it is to mistakenly think a bad process is good. There are three scenarios.
You’ve identified a bad process. Good for you, now reduce your bets and practice a better one.
You think it’s all bad luck. Great, keep betting as you always do, and you should eventually spike a lineup.
You’re unsure. You should probably reduce your bids and research areas to improve your process.
2. Today’s DFS
It’s all late games again; a full slate of 15. Unfortunately, weather threatens to cancel a few. It’s a challenge but also an opportunity.
Boston is merely cold rather than rainy like several other games, so you can still try to stack Red Sox righties against Erik Bedard. The Rays pen has been taxed on this road trip, so they should also give up a few runs.
There is a 50 percent chance of rain in Kansas City, where the Royals are set to face Dustin McGowan. I just wish the Royals had a better offense.
Here you go, an honest-to-goodness game with decent weather, a good park, and an exploitable pitcher. I had small hopes Jarred Cosart would turn the corner this season, but I’m now convinced it’s time to move him to the bullpen. Target Nats, especially the lefties.
3. Tomorrow’s Fantasies
Pitchers to Start: Brandon Cumpton is a no frills, get-the-job-done kind of guy. With Chris Davis on the disabled list and a tendency towards ground balls, his matchup isn’t terrifying. He’s opposed by Bud Norris, who gives up his share of crooked numbers.
Aaron Harang faces the Marlins in Miami. He may still have an ERA under 1.00 this time on Thursday…
I’ve grown edgy about Drew Hutchison because he passes the stats test but not the eye test. However, a start against Kansas City is not to be poopooed.
Pitchers to Exploit: Hector Noesi pitched in relief the other day and now he’s starting tomorrow. It’s not like it’s short rest or anything, but I doubt he’s stretched out. Even if he were, there’s a reason he’s on his third team of the season.
Felix Doubront‘s whiff and strikeout rates are way down. His walk rate is up. The end result is a pitcher with a 6.00 ERA and matching 4.88 FIP/xFIP.
To me, Carlos Carrasco is showing signs of turning the corner. Despite a 6.95 ERA, his peripherals have produced a respectable 3.68 FIP and xFIP (weird to have two guys with perfect matches). The Angels feature a potent lineup, so I’ll refrain from recommending him today.
Mike Pelfrey has been indescribably terrible. Personally, I think he’s hurt, but it doesn’t even matter. He needs to stop pitching for big league teams.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Ugh. These days are the worst. There’s rain everywhere, but more to the point, there’s uncertain rain everywhere. Games in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Cincinnati, Chicago, Kansas City, Minnesota, and St. Louis could all be affected. Only St. Louis is below a 50 percent chance of rain. As if that isn’t enough Boston will be in the low 40′s and Minnesota in the 30′s.
The Link. Today’s factor grid should be giving us a ton of green options, but the uncertainty of rain has temporarily reduced many of them to yellow. Sometimes it’s best to just sit these days out rather than obsessively monitor the weather. Then again, if you avoid any nastiness, you’ll probably have a competitive advantage.
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