- The role of luck in DFS
- DFS Info
- Monday fantasies
- The standard table
Yesterday, a commenter asked about the role of luck in DFS. My best analogy is poker. The outcome of any single hand is largely luck. The player has control over betting strategy and positioning (to an extent), but the cards will fall as they will. In DFS, a player can control whether his guys are starting with a good matchup, park, and position in the lineup. But once the games start, the stats will fall as they will.
When we transition from one contest to many, that’s where we see skill enter the equation. Anybody can beat Phil Ivey once. Very few people can beat him playing every day for a week. Again, the same is true for DFS. Some scrub almost beat me yesterday starting Johnny Cueto and Dillon Gee on Draft Kings. One of the worst strategies you can take in a tournament is starting two pitchers from the same team. I’m going to beat that guy a lot this season, but yesterday was almost one of those losses.
2. Today’s DFS picks
Remember all my neigh saying about CC Sabathia? This is the day to put it into action. I’m not sure if I will yet. Actually, I usually don’t get rosters in on time for Sunday games, so I probably won’t. I’m already pissed. (And yes, I’m feeling equine today. Neigh).
Here’s something I didn’t expect to recommend…try stacking the Marlins against Ian Kennedy. There’s great weather for baseball in Miami and it’s a sneaky pick. These kinds of plays can backfire, the Astros let me down hard against Tyler Skaggs yesterday.
The Cardinals face Edinson Volquez. REPEAT: THE CARDINALS FACE EDINSON VOLQUEZ. Tell the president or something.
The Angles of Los Angles of Angleheim face Scott Feldman. Watch (not on MLB.tv, Sunday games are blacked out) for geometric domination.
Do consider starting Taylor Jordan ($4,200), Erasmo Ramirez ($5,500), Nathan Eovaldi ($5,600), Alex Wood ($6,100), A.J. Burnett ($6,900), Justin Masterson ($7,000), Jon Lester ($7,500), Sonny Gray ($7,500), and any of the six most expensive guys (you’ll see them). Whew, that’s a lot of viable starters today. Prices are from FanDuel.
3. Pitcher plays for tomorrow
Tomorrow doesn’t appear well suited for DFS play, but regular fantasy owners need to bulk up for the thin schedule.
To start: The good news? Corey Kluber is down to 61 percent owned in Yahoo. The bad news? Last start was so bad that I’ll be leaving him on my bench.
Kyle Lohse is a solid veteran, but he’s not somebody you want to own full time. He’s useful on Monday against the Phillies.
Don’t start him, but keep an eye on Jarred Cosart. He’s talked about as a breakout candidate if he can reel in the walk rate. He didn’t issue any free passes in five innings last time around.
Tanner Scheppers‘ first start was bad and he was only facing the Phillies. Boston is a much harder matchup.
I’ve put Kyle Kendrick in this exploit section for over two years now, and he still does his best to change my mind. At the end of the day, this is still a guy whose only weapon is a sinker. And some days that sinker is completely busted.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Looks like the weather is mostly cooperating today. Houston will be drenched, but that’s why they have a retractable roof (actually it’s not…). Toronto will probably have the roof closed too.
I’m not sure I believe the 0/10 weather rating for Colorado. The report I’m looking at says the temperature should be around 50 degrees for the game. I’m going to pretend it says 5/10.
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