- One week down
- Thin day DFS
- Normal fantasy on Tuesday
- Look at the colors
1. One week down
We’re through the first week, which means we have a few more ideas about how playing time is going to shake out, especially for hitters. That said, managers are still being pretty unpredictable with the order of their lineup – several are playing the hot hand game. I continue to believe that it would be irresponsible of me to recommend batter/pitcher matchups one day in advance, so we’ll hold off on adding that feature into this week. As with before, if you have a situation that needs to be addressed, leave a comment.
Week one was pretty good to my bank account. Thanks mostly to two tournaments, I finished the week with a 258 percent rate of return. Remember, the specific players you choose don’t matter, it’s all about refining your process.
2. DFS advice
It’s a thin schedule today, perhaps you should consider taking the day off.
Early: There are four games in the early bin but you’re effectively looking at two of them. The matchup in New York features Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda. That sounds like a fine day for a Yankees stack. The game in Houston also looks stackable, with Jarred Cosart squaring off against C.J. Wilson. The other two games have inferior conditions and/or better pitchers. That means Michael Wacha, Tony Cingrani, or Scott Kazmir are your pitcher options.
Late: There are four more games late. You can cross the game in Cleveland off your list, there is an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms, and it’s expected to rain before and after the game too. That leaves you with a few sources of offense. Tanner Scheppers imploded in his first outing, and Boston is a much harder matchup than Philadelphia. The other game to target is in Colorado. The White Sox throw Felipe Paulino against Jordan Lyles, which could produce more than a couple runs. If you need to pick a pitcher, it looks like John Lackey or bust. The other game features Matt Moore against Jason Vargas. I expect both pitchers to be blah all season long.
3. Streamables for Tuesday
Tomorrow is a good day for low strikeout, high ground ball rate pitchers. Keep in mind, today’s game in Cleveland could get cancelled.
To Start: Ivan Nova is a scouting and data pick of mine, but he has to put away his four seam fastball to truly breakout. A matchup against the Orioles is not easy, but he could ground ball his way through it.
Kyle Lohse isn’t exciting, but he has a friendly matchup against the Phillies.
Tim Hudson will be home against the Diamondbacks and looking to burn a few worms. What a creep.
I love Charlie Morton. In real life more than fantasy, but he’s still great.
To Exploit: As I’ve been saying, I’ll continue to bet against Kyle Kendrick because his sinker is so hit and miss outing to outing. When he has it, he’s very tough. When he doesn’t, he’s one of the worst pitchers in the majors.
I generally like Lance Lynn, but there a couple left handed bats in the Cincinnati lineup that give me pause tomorrow.
Hector Alvarez is a decent command/control pitcher, but he was really off last time around.
4. Table Time TM
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
One game already bit the dust – the Philadelphia Phillies preemptively cancelled their contest against the Brewers. The game in Cleveland is also very much under threat of rain. That effectively leaves you with three games for the late tournaments. That’s going to produce some overlap…
The link. The games in Colorado and New York appear to be the best for long balls. That short porch is in play today, and the Yanks have been fairly disappointing offensively. Watch out for late rain in New York. Houston’s another nice choice.
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