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The Daily Grind: 4-9-14

Agenda

  1. It’s a long season
  2. Another split day at DFS
  3. Thin Thursday Cometh
  4. The Factor Grid

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1. It’s a long season

Yesterday was disappointing. Not because I lost or even because I gambled more money than all my other days combined. No, the disappointing part was that there were just a few obvious “best” plays and they let me down. In particular, Tyson Ross and Charlie Morton failed to capitalize on extremely pitcher friendly conditions. With Ross, control was a huge problem, I think it might have been too cold for him to get a good feel on his pitches. I don’t know what happened to Morton.

In any case, it’s a long season. Each day is a lottery ticket, so try not to get upset if you lose with a really good roster. It’ll come back to you another day.

2. DFS Picks

The first Cleveland game isn’t being counted anywhere, so I’m going to ignore it.

Early: Let’s address the second game of the doubleheader first. It’s tricky because you’ll have tired players and fatigued bullpens. It’s tough to know whether that will go in the hitters or pitchers favor, but what we do know is that it’s a cold day in Cleveland. I would avoid it.

The two hitter friendly stadiums in this tier – Coors Field and Fenway – combine to have three exploitable pitchers. In Colorado, Juan Nicasio hosts Erik Johnson. In Boston, Robbie Ross has the tough job of keeping the Red Sox bats quiet.

Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Guthrie are also worthy targets in Kansas City.

Late: Again, the hitter choices are pretty easy. The Blue Jays face Lucas Harrell, which is a gift from the DFS gods. The Astros see the always uncertain Brandon Morrow. He’s a sneakier guy to stack against.

The Yankees feature the other surefire play. With Tanaka on the hill, they’ll face Miguel Gonzalez. Stack those New York lefties.

I’ve grown to like Brad Hand, but he’s being thrust into the rotation on short notice. He might not be able to go deep in the game, even if he’s pitching well.

The Brewers get to see if Ryan Braun can continue his home run streak against Roberto Hernandez.

3. Thin Thursday

It’s a not very thin Thin Thursday.

To Start: Dan Straily draws the dream matchup against the Minnesota Twins. Don’t give me lip about their offense scoring runs, it’s terrible.

Michael Pineda has a tough assignment against the Red Sox. However, his opponent Clay Buchholz doesn’t appear to be the good version of himself this year. At the very least, his velocity is down.

Marco Estrada draws mixed reviews. I like him against the Phillies offense, but he has to out pitch Cliff Lee.

Jenrry Mejia is an excellent play for tomorrow. The Braves still have a high upside offense, but they strike out a ton. With Mejia’s wicked stuff, we should have some good results.

To Exploit: Ryan Vogelsong versus Randall Delgado is a game meant for scoring runs. Too bad it’s in San Francisco.

It’s going to take a month of successful work for John Danks to climb out of the exploit section. The Indians are good at matching up with platoons, so you should have some hitter options here too (Ryan Raburn anyone?).

Dallas Keuchel has to retire a couple home run happy Jays in Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista. At some point, Edwin Encarnacion is going to join the party.

I sort of like Mike Pelfrey in a he’s-good-enough-in-the-real-world sort of way. Like the Indians, the A’s come at you with all kinds of platoon advantages. I think he’ll get overwhelmed.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s cold again in Cleveland for their double header. The rest of the league is free and clear.

The Link. There are four stadiums that look especially good for hitters tonight. Two of them are day games and two of them are night games, so you’ll have a few choices no matter when you play.

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