- Evaluating a winning roster
- Today’s DFS
- Sunday Selects
1. Evaluating a winning roster
From time to time, let’s take a look at winning rosters. From yesterday’s $5 Single comes Doyer69 and his 62 point onslaught.
Jason Vargas – Nice selection of a left-handed pitcher against the Seattle Mariners. I went with shinier picks including Jose Fernandez and Michael Wacha, but only Tyson Ross, Yu Darvish, Tommy Milone, and Corey Kluber outperformed Vargas.
Tyler Flowers – Flowers was very cheap, but for a reason. As the nine hole hitter of a home team against a sinker baller, this is a classic example of bad process, good result. Flowers also simply isn’t a very good hitter. Of positive factors, the new McCarthy might be a bit homer prone (probably not) and the home stadium was attractive.
Jose Abreu – Despite a lack of the platoon advantage, it’s hard to fault anyone for using Abreu.
Aaron Hill – Here’s another guy who was down in the order without the platoon advantage. Another bad process play.
Todd Frazier – Clearly this particular user doesn’t give a fig or a frog for platoon advantages. Chacin was shaky in his first outing, so stacking against him made some sense. Joey Votto made for a better target.
Alexei Ramirez – Same story as Flowers except with more contact and less power.
Mike Trout – Sure, why not. Although once again we have a guy without the platoon advantage. It matters less when the player is named Mike Trout.
Jose Bautista – A right-handed hitter against a hard throwing, right-handed, ground ball specialist. Bautista did exactly what was expected of him 0.25 points.
Gerardo Parra – The very last hitter is a platoon advantaged leadoff man for an away team. At least one pick made sense!
Overall – Doyer69 was the lucky recipient of six home runs and a good start. You’ll go far if you can put those two factors together.
Moral of the story – A good process doesn’t always win. We’ve discussed this before, but the best you can do for yourself is to stack the long odds ever-so-slightly in your favor. The odds were stacked against Doyer69, but he won anyway.
2. Today’s DFS
Early: We have three games in the early bin and there’s just one obvious stop for offense.
If you require additional hand holding, the remaining pitchers in order of exploitability are Kyle Gibson, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer. If you’re thinking about using Scherzer with the target game above, forget about it.
Late: We’re left with 12 games for later.
Right-handed White Sox will see the eminently hittable Wade Miley.
The Brewers have a righty-leaning lineup, and they’ll face the now home run prone CC Sabathia.
Eric Stults hasn’t been very effective this season. As a lefty in Petco, at least the park is on his side.
3. Sunday Selects
Pitchers to Start: Jon Niese is off to a fast start this season. If he’s still on the waiver wire, consider using him against the Phillies tomorrow. He’s already stifled them once.
While we should be expecting an ERA around 4.00 for Aaron Harang, the Cubs offense is mediocre. Atlanta’s ballpark also works in Harang’s favor.
Robbie Erlin flashes good stuff and the ability to strike out hitters. He has to work pretty hard for his success and seems prone to the occasional blow up. I like his matchup at home against the Marlins.
Pitchers to Exploit: The Twins have a rather right-handed lineup. It will go to work against rookie left-hander Robbie Ray.
I project Homer Bailey to make a full recovery from his early season woes. He’s mostly been the victim of a high BABIP and home run rate. His 3.43 xFIP is in line with past performances. However, the Rockies have a formidable lineup and Cincinnati is a hitter’s haven. .
The Baltimore Orioles will try to pour some gasoline on Jarred Cosart.
The Diamondbacks start Chase Anderson tomorrow. He’s definitely a person of interest insofar as his peripheral statistics yielded a 6.33 K/BB ratio through six Triple-A starts this season. Said Anderson was also the subject of some attention from Carson Cistulli early last season. Here he is throwing some filthy dead fish changeups. If his debut wasn’t at U.S. Cellular Field, I might even try using him.
Anderson is opposed by Hector Noesi.
Load up on right-handed Bostonians in Texas against Robbie Ross.
Corey Dickerson may play against Bailey.
Hitters (speed): Michael Saunders remains the everyday leadoff hitter in Seattle. Woof.
Scooter Gennett is a two-hole hitter with just enough to his game to be interesting.
Gerardo Parra is a nice place to start against Noesi, but feel free to use any Diamondback at your disposal.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Thunderstorms could affect several cities tonight including New York, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. At least none of the early games are affected.
The Link. Be especially careful of storms with your pitching staff. I don’t think any of the games will be rained out, so the hitter picks should be safe. With many hours until game time, it’s your responsibility to confirm my hunch. In other words, don’t blame me if you’re screwed by a rain out.
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