- Use Your Peripherals
- Tuesday DFS
- Wednesday Picks
1. Use Your Peripherals
To a FanGraphs audience, this should go without saying, but do remember to use peripheral statistics. When players have a wonky batted ball profile or crazy swing rates, change is probably coming. However, predictable change is rarely recognized on DFS platforms. Traditional fantasy owners can be slow on the uptake too.
Last week, Blake Murphy wrote about swing rates on wasted pitches over on the main site. I’ve since used the same data to speculate about the effect on fantasy performance. Empirical testing is in the works.
Oh, and how are people feeling about Tyler Lyons today?
Once again, they’re all late. Which is kind of a shame since these early weekday contests can give the underemployed an operational advantage.
The Mets aren’t a powerhouse and some of their best hitters are left-handed, but there are still a few options to play against Vidal Nuno.
I’d be comfortable using the Phillies best left-handed hitters against Matt Shoemaker.
R.A. Dickey is a high-risk, high-reward play against the Cleveland Indians. Part of the risk-reward profile is the potential for a noisy meltdown.
The Twins against Felix Doubront would be a great matchup in Boston. Alas, this game will be played in Minnesota.
Like with the Twins, I would feel a lot better about the Athletics stack against Scott Carroll if the game was in Chicago.
Mike Minor might not be all the way back. If you’re feeling frisky, the Giants stack is a sleepy choice. Just keep in mind, the smart money is never on Giants hitters at home.
Pitchers to Start: I’ve said my peace (piece?) about Garrett Richards more than once. He has a weird profile. I can’t seem to figure out why he’s succeeding when the only notable change is a big decrease in first pitch strike rate. In any case, the Phillies feature a weak lineup after Chase Utley, so Richards could have another strong outing.
I’m comfortable using Brandon McCarthy against a mostly right-handed Nationals squad.
I might as well mention him because he’s new and shiny, but I won’t be starting Rafael Montero at Yankee Stadium. However, I might be willing to start Montero at Citi Field which is where he’s actually playing. I hate these split series…
Corey Kluber is 65 percent owned on Yahoo, which means some of you can pick him up to face the Blue Jays. The matchup is icky, but he has a good shot to earn a win.
Pitchers to Exploit: Wei-Yin Chen bounces between the start and exploit portions of this column. The Detroit Tigers have a right-handed juggernaut, so Chen is in a bit of trouble.
Jhoulys Chacin is still getting back into the swing of things, so there might be an increased risk of a clunker. In the meantime, the Rockies get to use their righty stack against Jason Vargas. Unfortunately, the park isn’t conducive to right-handed power.
Dustin McGowan remains on a short leash. Have I mentioned the Indians are very left-handed?
Kevin Correia is too hittable to survive an outing against the Red Sox.
Gordon Beckham will probably bat first or second against Milone.
John Jaso tends to wield his OBP stick against middling righties. Does he really belong in the power section? No, but he’s not a speed guy either.
Hitters (speed): Look for Nyjer Morgan to pull leadoff duties again.
Norichika Aoki is yet another leadoff man to consider.
Last but not least is Rajai Davis, who might be the trump card on your waiver wire.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
We have possible wet weather across the east coast, including Baltimore, Cincinnati, New York, and Philadelphia. None have a risk higher than 50 percent, so monitor throughout the day.
The Link. Lots of green, lots of red, and possible weather. We’re swimming in choices today.
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