The Daily Grind: 5-19-14 – Presented by FanDuel


  1. Roster Analysis
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Tomorrow’s Tilts
  4. Table

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1. Roster Analysis

One way to win the FanDuel Squeeze is to hit eight home runs. Let’s take a look at Bedroombully’s roster, which put up an impressive 82.75 points. He used a lineup of:

Felix Hernandez
Devin Mesoraco
Justin Morneau
Dee Gordon
Matt Dominguez
Jimmy Rollins
Alex Gordon
Mitch Moreland
Chris Carter

Both Dominguez and Gordon hit two home runs, while Carter, Moreland, Rollins, and Morneau hit one apiece. This is a roster I would never construct – it’s pretty obvious this owner went with the tactic of using a top pitcher and value picks. His most expensive position player was actually the only drag on his roster. While I don’t care for this particular process, at least he’s following one.

Were I to execute a similar lineup, I would put more focus on top of the order hitters for away teams. As such, Morneau, Dominguez, Moreland, and Carter will almost never make one of my rosters. They can still win a day for you, but they’re not the percentage play.

2. Daily DFS

There are only five games today, and they’re all late. Let’s comment on all games.

The Indians have performed poorly against left-handed pitching like Drew Smyly. Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn, Yan Gomes, and Mike Aviles have not done their part. The Tigers matchup versus Corey Kluber isn’t inspiring. Neither Kluber nor the Detroit lineup is a clean bet to perform well.

The Nationals assault is just a bit right-handed with Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche on the disabled list. As such, Mike Leake isn’t a bad play. The worst part about his start is he’s opposed by Stephen Strasburg. The Reds lineup is also shorthanded with Joey Votto on the sidelines and Jay Bruce on the disabled list.

Wily Peralta has the job of retiring the Braves, which typically means he’ll record lots of strikeouts, allow several home runs, or both. The Brewers have one of the better matchups today against a less-than-sharp Mike Minor.

Scott Carroll is the king of balls in play. About 12 percent of plate appearances against him have ended with a strikeout or walk. A Royals stack seems advisable. Meanwhile, the White Sox are down their best right-handed hitter, so they’re looking quite a bit less fearsome against Jason Vargas. Paul Konerko should be a cheap option.

Dallas Keuchel has a tough job getting through Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron, and friends. Garrett Richards has an easier task retiring the Astros.

3. Tomorrow’s Tilts

Pitchers to Start: Trevor Bauer has a tough assignment against the Tigers, but it’s survivable. He seems to have figured out his problem with walks allowed. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he’ll be prone to multi-home run games.

Doug Fister draws the depleted Reds lineup. Unlike depleted uranium rounds, depleted lineups are less potent.

Anthony DeSclafani was impressive in his debut. The Phillies should be an easier opponent, although they beat up a couple Reds starters over the weekend.

I like Josh Beckett against the New York Mets. Do be aware of the 3.94 FIP.

Drew Pomeranz has been great in a couple five inning starts. The Rays will be his biggest test to date, but Tropicana Field will be on his side. He needs to throw more than five innings to be truly valuable.

Pitchers to Exploit: With J.A. Happ opposing Felix Doubront, it seems like a great day for righty bats at Fenway.

The Rays will trot out Jake Odorizzi. It’s a learning process for Odorizzi, but he’s better than his 4.89 ERA.

The Mariners lefty-stack is visiting Arlington, Texas and Colby Lewis. You’ll have a lot of choices.

The Giants draw lefty Franklin Morales at Coors Field. This is a rare occasion where you should go stock up on Giants.

A couple select Padres are worth a look against Kevin Correia.

Hitters (power): Jonny Gomes will draw the start.

Travis Snider might be worth a shot against Miguel Gonzalez.

Seth Smith is the guy to use in San Diego.

You could try George Springer against Tyler Skaggs.

Justin Smoak has a rare favorable matchup.

Hitters (speed): James Jones, Michael Saunders, and Brad Miller also appear usable against Lewis.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Well, at least the weather is clear today. If the reports are to be believed, we’ll barely see any clouds tonight.

The Link. Uh…This isn’t very helpful today, is it? Play the matchups.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.

18 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 5-19-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. wjylaw says:

    This might be one of the dumbest things ever written:

    As such, Morneau, Dominguez, Moreland, and Carter will almost never make one of my rosters. They can still win a day for you, but they’re not the percentage play.

    If you’re not playing Rockies at home, or guys with good match ups at home who also have good splits, you really have no legit “process”

    Your beloved “process” should be re-named “Precious”

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    • Brad Johnson says:

      Considering Morneau’s price and position in the lineup, he’s usually not near the top of the points/$ pool at 1b. He wasn’t yesterday. There are too many 1B who offer the same production and an extra .5 PA per game.

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      • wjylaw says:

        Hopefully there’s not a “fantasy malpractice” Complaint filed against you.

        No longer worth arguing. Up 8x my initial deposit on FanDuel since April.

        If you think the theoretical road at bat is worth more than how players and teams actually perform good for you.

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      • Brad Johnson says:

        If we want to compare dick sizes, I’ve deposited $15 and my FD account including withdrawals is at $1725. That’s 115X my deposit. I think I have you by a hair on the results.

        I’m not saying using Morneau is an invalid strategy, but it’s not one I would have ever used yesterday. I’ll use him if and when he’s near the top of the points/$ pool subject to other constraints.

        As I’ve said more times that I can count, there are a lot of different ways to succeed at DFS. I only use a couple of them.

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      • wjylaw says:

        Once again you’re keeping it as classy as ever. And I guess using your logic, I’m actually up something closer to 25x since my initial roll never got really used. But then again, I’m not “an expert” who writes a piece on a site that’s paid for by the company he’s trying to get people to play on.

        But whatever, you’re a shill/tout for a fantasy site.

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      • Brad Johnson says:

        Now you’re just trolling. Good day sir.

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    • chris says:

      One of the dumbest things written in the history of humanity? Wow. With all of the horribly evil things people have written over the course of our history on this planet, I never would have guessed that something written about daily fantasy baseball would rank so high on the list.

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    • amoonguss99 says:

      I don’t mind Carter/Dominguez 4-5 combo vs Danks and think that was a sharp play regardless of outcome…

      In that same game I could see Gillespie going over Dominguez but he gets a mini stack w CC

      Peralta actually has not been recording a lot of ks… He seems to be getting lucky in terms of giving up a HR a start but never getting roughed up. Never know either w the Braves tho.


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  2. Mooseman78 says:

    Haters….gonnnnnnnnnn hate.

    In other news. Brad are you in the Survivor(JDS, Just dont Suck). If so, is it possible to justify Strassy over Richards, at the 3K discount Richards offers?

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    • Brad Johnson says:

      No, I haven’t done any of the satellites, I think they’re a rip off. The probability of spiking two lineups to make money is ridiculously small.

      I don’t think the upgrade is justifiable. I mean Strasburg should pitch pretty well, but Richards could basically match him. There’s obviously more uncertainty with Richards, but not much more.

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      • Brad Johnson says:

        And I always play to win rather than place. I don’t think playing it safe works in tourneys in the long run. I don’t have data to support that assertion.

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  3. Cybo says:

    I gotta say its pretty low class bashing on someone’s lineup like that. You even go so far as to include their user name. Sure you definitely know your stuff when it comes to baseball but as far as just plain courtesy and class you got quite a lot to learn there. You speak of “dick measuring contests” sarcastically and then immediately whip yours out and point to its size as justification for your douchery.

    With all due respect you don’t know a damn thing about Bedroombully’s process. All you know is his result. Perhaps that winning lineup was just one of several he entered that day that his process generated. You don’t know that. Its not exactly some brand strategy new to play multiple DIFFERENT lineups in the same contest.

    All in all you sound like a whiney loser Brad. “You may have won today but your process isn’t as good as mine”. Really dude? How old are we? These kind of comments I expect from my 12 year old, not from a grown man. Have some class dude. And maybe a little restraint the next time you think its a good idea to openly bash some stranger in your internet column.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      I didn’t realize I was bashing? I thought I said he did a good job with a strategy I wouldn’t use. Nor am I specifically commenting on the relative goodness of strategies. Based on my numbers, the percentages didn’t favor his lineup, but I say all the time my method is not the only way to get the job done.

      If you want to simplify things, there are two dynamics at play, expected value and expected variance in value. He used a high variance* “value” lineup with a low variance pitcher. I happen to believe in using the opposite strategy, but I never said my way is better. I just understand it more so it’s the one I’m going to use and teach.

      *Technically, the top players are always going to be the highest variance in a one game sample, so I’m referring to a hypothetical “player quality adjusted” variance.

      Now the lineup I sampled about a week ago, I bashed. It was a objectively terrible lineup and a good teaching moment. I do believe I complimented this particular guy while commenting on how I would tweak his particular methodology.

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    • amoonguss99 says:

      Brad can / did obviously defended himself but I didn’t see a bash there whatsoever. Also, I think understanding what the top players think / do on a particular day is crucial to making better decisions myself…

      The first couple weeks of DFS I targeted low cost H2H matchups against player names I recognized from other websites as being “good” and then would try to reverse engineer their thought process…

      Also the other guy seemed like a troll

      Tho maybe for lineup comments Brad could pull out LU’s that are single entry since you would expect most good players would put forth their “best” LU when they only have one bullet in events like the Ace/Single etc etc etc

      In the squeeze ppl do all kinds of weird shit

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      • Cybo says:

        Brad beat up some other guy’s lineup a week ago pretty badly, I suppose he wasn’t very mean to this guy. My apologies for airing my grief here. Still, I thought made my point pretty clearly. Its pretty damn rude to just put someone’s name and lineup in your column for all to see and critique. They didn’t ask for that. Is it really necessary to include these people’s names and lineups and everything else in your column? Is that fair to those winners? I dunno, I guess it just bugs me.

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      • Brad Johnson says:

        Well I’m trying to use the lineups as a learning opportunity/lesson, so including them is important. I don’t need to include the names, but they’re just pseudonyms and I’d want the credit personally. Were I him, I wouldn’t care if somebody who didn’t beat me thinks my roster is crap. I won. It doesn’t matter if I have the worst process in the world, winning just one day pretty much ensures I won’t lose money on the season so long as I don’t increase my daily buy-ins.

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  4. Dave says:

    Bash away whoever you like as long as you keep writing good columns that make me money.

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  5. dwdavis3 says:

    Just wanted to say how much I look forward to your article each day and how much I appreciate the information. Thanks

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