- Multi-Entry Tournaments
- DFS Picks
- Saturday Sauciness
1. Multi-Entry Tournament Advice
Previously, I’ve admitted to some confusion about the best way to attack multi-entry tournaments, I find the math tricky. With my own money, I’ve entered the same lineup multiple times with mixed success. Yesterday, my consultee came to me about submitting multiple entries in a $2 tournament we play, so it was time to do some research.
What I did not find was anybody who helpfully broke down the math. What I did find was plenty of advice, and it was all intuitive. For a tournament with a top heavy pay structure, it can be best to enter many similar, but slightly different lineups. The goal is to maximize your chances to spike the top spot while also cashing with every roster. The FanDuel Squeeze pays the top 10 percent of performers with a $2,000 top prize. I consider it to be top heavy. If your tournament pays more than the top 10 percent with a lesser reward for the top spot, then entering the same lineup becomes more strategically viable. Slight variations can still be beneficial.
PS, I find the math tricky because the one way I know how to solve it would take more time than I care to commit. Looking just at the top spot, a single entry has a 1 in 10055 shot at $2,000. A lineup entered five times has a 1 in 10050 chance to win $4,850. The five entry lineup costs five times more but has a chance to win about 2.5 times more at the top end. On the other site I use, one entry has a 1 in 5,750 chance at $600. Five identical entries would have 1 in 5,745 odds at $1,750. In this case, there’s almost a three times payout for the top spot. The tournament also pays the top 20 percent of the field, so a single lineup entry is more likely to pay on a given day.
At the end of the day, you’re doubling down on risk-reward. Your odds to make any money decrease, but your odds to make a lot of money increase.
2. DFS Picks
Early: With just one early game, there isn’t a typical early/late split to play today. There aren’t even enough late-late games to split up the action. In other words, you’ll miss Adam Wainwright stuffing the Cubs this afternoon.
Late: You can try the White Sox lefties against Danny Salazar. The Salad Czar is coming off his best outing of the season, but he still has a fly ball and home run problem.
Ubaldo Jimenez versus Ricky Nolasco would be another excellent stacking opportunity if the game was to be played in Baltimore. Alas, Target field and chilly night conditions hurt offensive expectations.
I have a bad feeling about Zack Wheeler‘s repertoire at Coors Field. I think he’s going to try to power through hitters and get lit up as a result.
3. Saturday’s Play
I want R.A. Dickey in Pittsburgh, and I bet he’s available in some leagues.
Drew Smyly isn’t much as a fantasy starter. However, the Kansas City Royals do not possess a dynamic lineup, especially against left-handed pitching.
I’m all over Brandon McCarthy at San Diego tomorrow. I’m calling double digit strike outs for a second straight outing.
Pitchers to Exploit: Jake Odorizzi will be a viable major league starter, but he’s an easy exploit target at Yankee Stadium.
The Red Sox have some platoon bats for a guy like Tommy Milone. They’re tough on mediocre lefties – so is the Green Monster.
Bruce Chen is pitching hurt and no everybody knows it. Find all the Detroit righties.
Jonny Gomes seems to be batting fifth against lefties.
Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is a must play tomorrow against Chen.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
All those plaguey storms are finally gone. We’re left with typical April night weather. Welcome to May, post climate change. I was promised lamb.
The Link. The best weather games are in bad parks for home runs, so let’s just stick with the usual suspects.
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