The Daily Grind: 5-2-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Multi-Entry Tournaments
  2. DFS Picks
  3. Saturday Sauciness
  4. Table

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1. Multi-Entry Tournament Advice

Previously, I’ve admitted to some confusion about the best way to attack multi-entry tournaments, I find the math tricky. With my own money, I’ve entered the same lineup multiple times with mixed success. Yesterday, my consultee came to me about submitting multiple entries in a $2 tournament we play, so it was time to do some research.

What I did not find was anybody who helpfully broke down the math. What I did find was plenty of advice, and it was all intuitive. For a tournament with a top heavy pay structure, it can be best to enter many similar, but slightly different lineups. The goal is to maximize your chances to spike the top spot while also cashing with every roster. The FanDuel Squeeze pays the top 10 percent of performers with a $2,000 top prize. I consider it to be top heavy. If your tournament pays more than the top 10 percent with a lesser reward for the top spot, then entering the same lineup becomes more strategically viable. Slight variations can still be beneficial.

PS, I find the math tricky because the one way I know how to solve it would take more time than I care to commit. Looking just at the top spot, a single entry has a 1 in 10055 shot at $2,000. A lineup entered five times has a 1 in 10050 chance to win $4,850. The five entry lineup costs five times more but has a chance to win about 2.5 times more at the top end. On the other site I use, one entry has a 1 in 5,750 chance at $600. Five identical entries would have 1 in 5,745 odds at $1,750. In this case, there’s almost a three times payout for the top spot. The tournament also pays the top 20 percent of the field, so a single lineup entry is more likely to pay on a given day.

At the end of the day, you’re doubling down on risk-reward. Your odds to make any money decrease, but your odds to make a lot of money increase.

2. DFS Picks

Early: With just one early game, there isn’t a typical early/late split to play today. There aren’t even enough late-late games to split up the action. In other words, you’ll miss Adam Wainwright stuffing the Cubs this afternoon.

Late: You can try the White Sox lefties against Danny Salazar. The Salad Czar is coming off his best outing of the season, but he still has a fly ball and home run problem.

The Rays will probably be tired, but at least they didn’t have far to travel last night. The righty stack performed decently last night against Felix Doubront. Now they’re face Vidal Nuno.

Dan Straily versus Clay Buchholz at Fenway opens up all kinds of opportunities to stack.

Ubaldo Jimenez versus Ricky Nolasco would be another excellent stacking opportunity if the game was to be played in Baltimore. Alas, Target field and chilly night conditions hurt offensive expectations.

The Mariners lefty stack is viable Brad Peacock on the hill. He’s opposed by Felix Hernandez, so today does not look good for the Astros.

I have a bad feeling about Zack Wheeler‘s repertoire at Coors Field. I think he’s going to try to power through hitters and get lit up as a result.

3. Saturday’s Play

Pitchers to Start: Dallas Keuchel has a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners. He’s opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma.

I want R.A. Dickey in Pittsburgh, and I bet he’s available in some leagues.

Drew Smyly isn’t much as a fantasy starter. However, the Kansas City Royals do not possess a dynamic lineup, especially against left-handed pitching.

I’m all over Brandon McCarthy at San Diego tomorrow. I’m calling double digit strike outs for a second straight outing.

Pitchers to Exploit: Jake Odorizzi will be a viable major league starter, but he’s an easy exploit target at Yankee Stadium.

The Red Sox have some platoon bats for a guy like Tommy Milone. They’re tough on mediocre lefties – so is the Green Monster.

Kevin Correia is getting mashed and bashed. The Orioles are a little short-handed on power without Chris Davis, but they can still hammer a mediocre starter.

Break out the lefty bats in Cleveland against Scott Carroll and Justin Masterson. Speaking of Masterson, he has his command and control in check, but his velocity is still averaging less than 90 mph.

Bruce Chen is pitching hurt and no everybody knows it. Find all the Detroit righties.

Hitters (power): Kelly Johnson, Yangervis Solarte, and any other Yankee who is mildly left-handed should be used.

Jonny Gomes seems to be batting fifth against lefties.

The Royals have been stubborn about playing Mike Moustakas, but Danny Valencia should start tomorrow. With Lorenzo Cain on the disabled list, Justin Maxwell isn’t blocked from spot duty either.

Moises Sierra will have the platoon advantage against Francisco Liriano, but recommendations can’t come any more tepid than this one.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is a must play tomorrow against Chen.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

All those plaguey storms are finally gone. We’re left with typical April night weather. Welcome to May, post climate change. I was promised lamb.

The Link. The best weather games are in bad parks for home runs, so let’s just stick with the usual suspects.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


15 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 5-2-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Phil says:

    Moises Sierra was optioned out. No Liriano for him.

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  2. DeQuarium Lumpkin says:

    Keuchel or McCarthy for Saturday?

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  3. amoonguss99 says:

    I couldn’t buy any hitting stats yesterday, or at the very least, line them up with my pitchers that did well ;)

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    • Brad Johnson says:
      FanGraphs Supporting Member

      SRod baby. I used him on DK, but I opted for Tulo over him in FanDuel, or else I would have had some big money yesterday. Still made $57 overall, which is a nice start to the month.

      Juan Nicasio also did the job for me. He was the guy I was referring to when I said I had a target.

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      • amoonguss99 says:

        Yeah Nicasio was def a solid choice. I actually had several shares of Elias as a punt and still lost a lot… I was all in tulo/blackmon/cargo/morneau…

        New day tho I feel optimistic haha

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      • amoonguss99 says:

        And my shares of big erv and others were a dumpster fire. Think I came in top 5 or 10 bottom in the $10 single entry. Boom haha

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      • Mooseman78 says:

        At least you 2 didnt have Nicasio….and SROD….and still didnt finish in the $$$$$. I think I was the 3 one on the bubble!
        FUN!

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      • Brad Johnson says:
        FanGraphs Supporting Member

        I faded the Rockies stack intentionally. I think the evening news was saying to stack Rockies yesterday and I actually thought Bartolo had a chance to shut em out. He didn’t, but they still didn’t put up big point value despite all the runs.

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      • Brad Johnson says:
        FanGraphs Supporting Member

        Moose, did the rest of your roster zero out?

        I so nearly started Scott Van Slyke. Would have been in place of Dickerson, so just 6.25 points, but that would have doubled my return on the day. Shucks.

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  4. geo says:

    Bruce Chen isn’t pitching at all; the Royals already said so yesterday. Not sure who is, though.

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    • geo says:

      Plus they just placed him on the DL. Still no announcement of tomorrow’s starter, though.

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      • Brad Johnson says:
        FanGraphs Supporting Member

        Ugh, last year it was MLB.com providing unreliable Prob starters. This year ESPN is the pain in the bum.

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  5. Mooseman78 says:

    They must have! I just signed up for DraftStreet, so it was a $2 tourny while I get used to the site. So I think I had a solid score….around 55ish But I was right around the 20th percent.

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  6. Pat says:

    I somehow broke even putting up 23 points in H2h, 50/50s and 3-5 person leagues. My mini Rays stack was terrible with Forsythe & Myers, Perez nothing at C and Billy Hamilton got hurt lol. Only thing that saved me was Juan Francisco and the rockies stack I had.

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