- The Right Bet
- Daily DFS
- Friday Stuff
1. The Right Bet
I recently had a reader ask what sort of bankroll is required to ride out variance. We were discussing the high value tournaments on FanDuel. A poker player would probably tell you your bankroll should be between 10 and 100 times your daily bets, depending on your aversion to risk.
I also have some small amount of data at my disposal for large guaranteed contests. This season, over about 50 games played, I have spiked three times. Let’s halve that and say we can expect to spike three times out of 100 if we have a good process. So if we expect to spike every 33 days and account for the random nature of the game, a bankroll of 50 bets should be safe. So long as you don’t increase your bets, you should only need to spike once to pay for your season.
Of course, there are other wins to consider. Of the seven weeks, I’ve lost money in only two of them – about $30 and $300 respectively. My coldest streak without any positive payouts was about 10 days. As such. we’re probably more than safe with 25 days worth of bets. If you’re less risk averse than I, you can probably get away with 15 days. The way I view these smaller payouts, my goal is to break even between spikes. I’m fine with taking my money in chunks.
Remember, we’re assuming you have a good, effective process. If that remains unproven, be cautious.
2. Daily DFS
Early: We have five early games from which to choose today.
There’s nothing wrong with Henderson Alvarez, he’s a thoroughly adequate major league pitcher. However, he is one of the weaker pitchers in this time slot. The Marlins put up 14 runs yesterday in their monstrous ballpark, maybe today is the Phillies turn. I’d be looking at a value pick here or there.
Yu Darvish and the Rangers will play at Comerica Park. If you caught my piece about park factor visualizations, you’ll recall Detroit’s home field is decidedly neutral. The Rangers face left-handed rookie Robbie Ray and will aim to hand him his first rough outing.
Today might be the only day all season I recommend targeting Tim Hudson. Sinker ball pitchers can have trouble at Coors Field – just ask Brandon McCarthy. The backdoor two seamer inside to lefty hitters can be particularly dangerous. Hudson is opposed by Jorge de la Rosa, who makes for a much more classic stacking option.
Last but not least, Mark Buehrle and the Blue Jays take on Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Can either pitcher be easily exploited? Not really, but you can try certain right-handed hitters from both lineups to patch your roster.
If you’re wondering about the fifth game, I’m not using anybody at Tropicana Field against Sonny Gray or Alex Cobb. I’m sure someone (many of them) will fade a bad outing from Cobb or Gray. They may even beat me, such is baseball.
Late: We get eight games late, which is a nice number to work with in my opinion.
Does anyone know who’s starting for the Indians? A cursory search turned up no obvious candidates aside from moving Masterson up a day. This is made necessary because Josh Tomlin was called upon in extra innings yesterday. Whoever gets the nod will probably be exploitable in some way. And lest you forget, Baltimore is a good place for offense.
It’s never a bad idea to use a couple lefties against Lance Lynn. He sure stifles the right-handed bats though, which tends to keep the games in check. Perhaps you’re better off targeting Cardinals hitters against Wade Miley.
U.S. Cellular Field is a haven for power, which would have made the original matchup between David Phelps and Hector Noesi all the more enticing. However, Chris Sale is making his return instead of Noesi.
Safeco Field is not a place for offense, but the Mariners will see exploitable right-hander Jarred Cosart. If you’re a regular here, you may remember me mentioning the left-handed nature of the Mariners lineup.
3. Friday Pickles
So long as his xFIP remains in the mid-3’s, I’m on board with Homer Bailey.
Chase Anderson isn’t special, but he can keep you in a game. Which is much the same as can be said about Bartolo Colon. Neither team has much of an offense, so this could be a low scoring affair. It’ll also be a low strikeout affair.
Pitchers to Exploit: The Indians collection of lefties look enticing against Bud Norris. Thanks to Camden Yards, they receive a +28 rating to home run power.
I don’t really know what to do with R.A. Dickey. Maybe he’s exploitable or maybe he should be started. Maybe you want to stream Oakland lefties, or maybe you don’t. His outings tend to be good or bad, with little room in between.
Are we trust Scott Baker to perform well? No, no we are not.
You’ll have to wait to exploit Noesi until tomorrow. He’ll face Hiroki Kuroda.
Danny Duffy is always a risk to meltdown. He’s about as predictable as something that’s extremely unpredictable.
Continuing the theme of Mariners lefty bats versus scrubby Astros starters – there’s Brad Peacock.
Justin Smoak is cold, cold, cold, but he also hits better as a lefty.
Maybe C.J. Cron will send one long tomorrow.
Try Gerardo Parra against Colon.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
In the early batch, Coors Field has a 40 percent chance of scattered storms late in the game. Boston has a 30 percent chance of showers all day long, but it looks like they would be short. Of the late games, only the Mets are at risk with a 40 percent chance for storms.
The Link. We’re still lacking for green games, but we do have several high weather scores.
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