The Daily Grind: 5-25-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Satellites
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Monday Mania
  4. Table

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1. Thoughts on Satellites

For the uninitiated, a satellite is a tournament that offers entry to another, higher priced tournament if you win. For example, FanDuel is offering a $2 satellite to their $200k Survivor series. If your lineup outperforms 111 others, you’ll receive a $200 ticket. As an aside, the Survivor Series is a really cool idea, I just wish they had a $25 entry analog.

What do you think of satellites? My impression is they’re a rip off. In the example above, FanDuel makes $222 for their $200 ticket, then applies another rake at the next level. Usually, you have to really spike to win your ticket. Then you need to spike again to win money in the bigger tournament. If you put $2 into a Squeeze contest and spike hard enough to win a satellite, there’s a good chance you’d make more than $200. Then you can just buy your way into the larger tournament or keep the cash.

2. Daily DFS

I’ll split the contests by time slot, just remember your options are full day or late contests.

Early: Los Atleticos have a few very attractive options to stack against Blue Jays lefty J.A. Happ. He (Happ) isn’t terrible, but he is exploitable.

Colby Lewis is pretty fringy, but the Tigers feature best as roster patches. Unfortunately, they cost quite a bit more than your standard patchwork.

Certain very expensive Brewers have a drool worthy matchup against Randy Wolf. Certain affordable Brewers are also viable options. Just remember Marlins Park kills home runs.

The Diamondbacks have an easier lineup to use for patching your DFS roster. Rafael Montero has a ton of talent, but he might be a little overwhelmed at the major league level. With a doubleheader today, they’re liable to overextend Montero if he pitches well.

I need to invent a word that means “inordinately left-handed.” The Indians lineup is that word. And they’ll face Orioles homer prone hurler Miguel Gonzalez. Oh joy!

Brandon Workman versus Jake Odorizzi has the makings for more than a few runs scored. The game is to be played at Tropicana Field. I prefer greener pastures, but I might take a share of this game somewhere. Keep in mind, the bullpens had to work pretty hard in yesterday’s 15 inning affair.

Late: The Yankees offense faces another mediocre pitcher at U.S. Cellular Field. This time it’s right-hander Andre Rienzo. He brings a 4.00 ERA, 5.33 FIP, and 4.80 xFIP.

You can’t play this one on FanDuel, but a game between Daisuke Matsuzaka and Zeke Spruill sounds mighty exploitable. We could play the game on Jupiter and it would still be exploitable. On second thought, even if the players could survive and we crafted some form of playing surface, the planet’s gravity would be too great to throw 60 foot pitches.

The Atlanta Braves face Franklin Morales. He probably belongs in the bullpen. He’ll be there soon enough. In the meantime, there are a couple potent Braves bats awaiting your pleasure.

3. Monday Mania

It’s a full day of fun even though it’s a Monday.

Pitchers to Start: Even though the game is to be played at U.S. Cellular Bandbox, Jose Quintana looks like a favorable choice tomorrow. The Indians have been incapable of punishing left-handers, mostly because certain switch hitters are scuffling.

Chase Whitley looks useful tomorrow. Between his short leash and matchup against Michael Wacha, he probably won’t record a win.

I like both Tyson Ross and Brandon McCarthy. They’re both sinker ball pitchers who can rack up strikeouts (the skill is new to McCarthy). They’re facing pretty terrible lineups too.

Pitchers to Exploit: If you allow for a normal BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB ratio, Clay Buchholz has been mediocre rather than execrable. We’ll see if he can keep the home run or strikeout Braves in check.

The Rangers are rather banged up, but Kevin Correia is pretty hittable these days. I wouldn’t go hog wild at Target Field.

The Tigers finally face a lefty! You don’t know how long I’ve been waiting to tout a couple right-handed Detroitists. Too bad the game is to be played in Oakland.

Chris Young has pitched poorly despite a 3.53 ERA. He has to turn pumpkin in a big way eventually, perhaps the Angels juggernaut is the team to do it.

While it’s not a high octane offensive environment, there’s a lot to like about the Colorado Rockies visiting Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies.

Hitters (power): J.D. Martinez should start against Milone. I’m pretty excited about his power despite the high whiff rate. Maybe it’s time to nominate him in Ottoneu.

Matt Joyce is startable against Drew Hutchison.

Yan Gomes has hit pretty well recently. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Quintana.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis finally has the platoon advantage. I wonder if he’s forgotten what lefties look like.

There’s always Norichika Aoki and his special blend of bland leadoff work.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Aside from a 30 percent chance of storms in Atlanta, we’re looking at a clear day of baseball.

The Link. We have a little bit of everything today. The pleasant weather across the league should help balls fly.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, MLB Trade Rumors, and The Fake Baseball. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


11 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 5-25-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Jay says:

    Your comment about the Satellites and Survivor – there is a $25 Survivor that started a few weeks ago. I regretted not entering it and I would have advanced every night thus far. Down to 1/3 to 1/4 of the original field now. Would have been something fun to keep tracking. Seems cash game lineups have done just fine so far.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. ldavidjm says:

    Personally I don’t play satellites for DFS but for poker they were a good value due to the especially terrible quality of competition. Its easy (in DFS) to just insert the same lineups in a million games so don’t know if the sharks bother or not…. like you said, double rake.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      Yea I loved poker satellites back when I played. Though it could be frustrating to get forced all-in pre-flop with KK on the second hand only to get called by five terrible hands and lose. I usually hoped my first 10 hands would be shit so I could fold them without regret. There were always way too many call stations early on, killed the odds of great starting hands.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ldavidjm says:

        Noooooooooo………………. just how you love people starting hitters vs their own pitchers in baseball you need to love people calling your KK!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Brad Johnson says:

        I love it when it’s heads up. I hate it when it’s 6 handed. At best I’m a 25-30% to win the hand in that situation.

        That’s assuming I didn’t run into rockets or someone with an ace with 3 in the deck.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Darryl Strawberry says:

    Hey Brad, I am looking to cash in on Cueto. Have set my sights on a 2 for 1 in Kluber and Cobb. Thoughts?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. bp says:

    Feeling the Indians and Angels stacks today.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Anthony says:

    $25 Survivor is down to 1200 from 5500. Hoping to keep the positive momentum forward later today.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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