- Playing the numbers – the hot hand
1. The Hot Hand Advantage
Playing the hot hand is a staple of DFS and traditional fantasy. It’s an attractive theory because it absolutely passes the smell test. However, we FanGraphs types know there’s no such thing as a hot hitter. And thanks to The Book, we can cite proof.
Let’s be quiet about our little advantage. When a hitter’s running hot, it’s usually because he has a .500 BABIP, 40% line drive rate, or some other soon-to-regress variable. Hot hitters are usually the most pricey, so we can spend our money elsewhere. Let the hot handists play the Marlins stack in Miami.
Conversely, cold hitters are more risky. Health, off-the-field issues, ineffective mechanical adjustments, or updated scouting reports can sometimes explain why a hitter is struggling. And sometimes it’s just bad luck. We want to buy the bad luckers, not the truly cold hitters.
2. Today The game in Cleveland appears to be excluded from both FanDuel games today. It has a weird 6:05 start time.
Early: Five games are in the early batch.
The Yankees lefty stack will see Jake Odorizzi. Any fly ball righty at Yankee Stadium means stacking time.
You can try stacking against Jake Arrieta. Nothing in his minor league numbers suggests he’ll be better this time around.
Red Sox righties are in a good spot against Tommy Milone. Expect a couple balls slamming off the monster.
The Twins can send a very right-handed lineup against left-handed pitchers. Wei-Yin Chen has a modest problem with righties. On the other side of the matchup is Kevin Correia, who has a not so modest problem with major league hitters this season.
Late: We’re left with nine games for the night slot.
Apparently Danny Duffy is starting for the Tigers in place of Bruce Chen. So you can hang on to Rajai Davis. Duffy is more than a little wild, so anything could happen. The last time I saw him pitch, he nearly broke Melky Cabrera‘s tibia.
Ryan Vogelsong is home run prone, so a couple Braves hitters would do nicely in your lineup.
Jenrry Mejia relies on pitch movement, so he could find Denver to be an unpleasant surprise.
Pitchers to Start: Corey Kluber isn’t safe against a surprisingly potent White Sox offense, but he’s usable.
Edinson Volquez has a couple potent hitters to retire in the Blue Jays lineup, but much of the order is composed of weak hitters.
Tyson Ross draws the glorious and glorified matchup against the Diamondbacks. Too bad Ross can’t face the Padres.
Pitchers to Exploit: I’m inclined to try to Indians lefty-stack against Andre Rienzo.
I do not think Miguel Gonzalez is viable. Even in Minnesota.
I don’t know what’s up with Collin McHugh, but he’s a fly ball righty pitching in Houston. Even if he has improved, it’s not a good place for him. The other side of this game features flammable starter Brandon Maurer.
Sean Rodriguez is running hot. Wait, did I just say something about hot hitters? No matter, a platoon advantage is a platoon advantage.
Maybe George Springer will finally light up the scoreboard against Maurer.
I guess Anthony Gose is worth a stab if all you need is speed.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Another cool spring day. Pittsburgh could see some sprinkles, but they should clear up before game time.
The Link. Houston has excellent weather conditions for home runs. The rest of the green stadiums have decent weather.
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