The Daily Grind: 5-31-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Another Month in the Books
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Sunday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Two Months Down

I’ll be off tomorrow due to an early baseball game of my own, so let’s talk end of month accounting today. It’s important to track how you’re performing as a DFS owner – it can help you to identify areas to improve. May was a mixed bag for me. Pending the outcome of today’s contest, I’ve lost money in the last two weeks. However, the first full week of May was a huge win for me. While consistent success is desirable, you have to remember the GPPs are basically a loaded lottery game. And they’re only loaded in your favor if you have a good process.

I’ve been feeling a bit unfocused when selecting my lineups recently, perhaps because I’m testing what I’m calling a “spray approach” in the Squeeze contests. By fielding many different rosters, I feel like I’m getting away from some of the core ideals of my process. I’ve yet to decide if that’s a good or bad thing.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Nine games fit in the early contest (sorry Rangers-Nationals).

Kevin Correia isn’t a bad major league starter. He can provide a quantity of tolerable innings. His 6.34 ERA is terrible, but he also has a 3.87 FIP. A game at Yankee Stadium could still be ugly.

The Royals are trying out youngster Aaron Brooks on the hill today. He’s a relatively unheralded sinkerballer. Look for left-handed Jays. On the other side of this matchup is Marcus Stroman, a very much heralded right-hander. Youngsters still choke, so think about including left-handed Royals.

It’s hard to pick out too many players from the Padres offense. They face Andre Rienzo. I think he has another level he can hit, but he’s not there yet.

You could think about starting Franklin Morales against the Indians due to their poor offense against lefties. However, it’s probably safer to play a few select right-handed bats against Morales.

The Mets have enough lefties to make this a tough game for Kyle Kendrick.

Jacob Turner isn’t much of anything these days. He actually profiles pretty similarly to Correia, so maybe it’s worth taking a stab at some Atlanta hitters.

Late: We have five late games from which to choose.

I know Jake Odorizzi is hittable and therefore prone to clunky outings. I don’t know much about Rubby de la Rosa since I haven’t seen him pitch since 2011. Even though it’s been three years since I last saw him in the majors, he’s only 25-years-old. He’s a hard thrower, which has led me to wonder why the Sox don’t just cut him loose in the ‘pen.

Brandon Cumpton is a pitch to contact guy who avoids all free passes. We’ll see if the Dodgers can square him up.

Tyler Skaggs and Tommy Milone have tough assignments against two teams that hit lefties hard. It makes this a tough game to handicap since they’re both reasonably decent pitchers.

3. Tomorrow’s Picks

Pitchers to Start: I usually avoid Mark Buehrle due to his low strikeout rate. However, I do like when he faces lefty heavy lineups like the Royals. There’s a lot of talk about him being tougher against opposite handed hitters. The numbers don’t really agree, although he doesn’t really show any platoon split.

Everyone is still avoiding Aaron Harang. He’s starting to remind me of John Lackey last season. I don’t know why he’s striking out batters at his best rate since 2007, but his swinging strike rate is also elevated. The fly ball pitcher will visit Miami tomorrow, so there’s plenty of real estate for mistakes.

Jon Niese draws the much vaunted Phillies matchup. Lefties used to be an automatic start against the Phillies, but the roster is more balanced now. Also, it’s less good.

Pitchers to Exploit: Most days I’m looking at Phil Hughes as a guy to start, but not tomorrow. He returns to his old stomping grounds at Yankee Stadium. Pull out those Yankee lefties.

Lefty Eric Stults will have to contend with the hitter friendly park factors of U.S. Cellular Field. The Sox have a couple lefty-mashers to send to the table.

Roenis Elias has a tough assignment against the righty-stacked Tigers.

Hitters (power): J.D. Martinez has the platoon advantage against Elias. He didn’t start the last time they faced a lefty, which is disappointing given his everyday upside.

Wei-Yin Chen seems like the kind of pitcher Chris Carter can hit.

Gordon Beckham and Dayan Viciedo are easy starts against Stults.

Daren Ruf and Marlon Byrd are worth a shot against Niese.

Jonny Gomes has another start coming to him with Erik Bedard on the bump.

Danny Valencia should start against Buehrle.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis also faces Elias.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Everything resembling bad weather will be seen at domed stadiums. In other words, all clear.

The Link. I think this is the first time I’ve seen the weather app spit out five 10’s. Two are in pitcher friendly stadiums, which makes those plays a little less attractive. That leaves the other three in hitter friendly venues.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


6 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 5-31-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Satoshi Nakamoto says:

    Is there any information about whether the retractable roof stadiums are closed or have the tops open? I’m assuming the HR factors will change for Rogers Center, Minute Maid Park, ARZ, etc.?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      I wish I had that information. You can look up if the stadiums are opened or closed around game time, but the relevant park factors are unknown to me.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Satoshi Nakamoto says:

        Well that stinks for people who want to really crunch the data.

        What’s your guess? Do the HRs fly better when the dome closed or open at Rogers Centre? I’m guessing there’s more HRs with it closed? Stop the wind dead?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Brad Johnson says:

        I’m guessing the wind isn’t the biggest factor, it’s air pressure and humidity.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. ldavidjm says:

    Question about process…. when you’re filling your roster, how does picking your last player or two usually go? Usually I get my pitchers, my stack, a few targets and then I’m left with $XXX dollars and need (seems like always) a 2B SS or C. And then its like today on Draft Kings….whelp, I have 5000 left I guess I better get Chase Utley since that’s about how much he costs…

    And that’s one of the better feeling picks, many times its SS whoever who’s batting 7th but all I have left is 3200 or whatever. Guess I’m wondering if this is typical or not

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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