The Daily Grind: 5-6-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Do your taxes
  2. DFS Picks
  3. Wednesday Watch
  4. Table

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1. Do your taxes

The Tax man cometh for your winnings. Yesterday was a very successful day for both me and my consultee. I made about $750, most of which was on FanDuel. I’m slightly peeved since I got locked out of the Squeeze AND the Squeeze #2. The big one filled by three hours before game time while the smaller filled 1,000 spaces within the 5 minutes it took me to set my Bunt lineup.

My consultee had to fill out some tax documents, so I have some minor insight into the process now. I’m told you’ll want to fill out a W-9 and claim your winnings as “entertainment.” The amount you are taxed can vary, but it will probably be around 28 percent for most people. The good ol’ governmental rake. It’s harsher than any rake FanDuel has to offer, but at least it only applies to winnings. I’m trying to look on the bright side.

2. Tuesday DFS

They’re all late again, and we get to see three Robbie’s pitch.

Cleveland’s lefty hitters are enticing against Samuel Deduno. The Twins don’t have many lefties to use against Josh Tomlin, especially with Joe Mauer probably out of the lineup. In other words, the Minnesota stack isn’t a percentage play.

Blake Treinen is a person of interest. He throws 95 mph out of the pen, but it remains to be seen how he’ll do as a starter. He opened four minor league games, but averaged less than three innings per outing despite excellent results. I can’t claim to know his story, but this sounds like a bullpen game.

I’m comfortable-ish using right-handed Astros against Robbie Ray. I’m more comfortable using right-handed Tigers against Brett Oberholtzer. Too bad the game isn’t in Houston.

The Reds don’t have a deep right-handed stack, but a few guys like Todd Frazier are worthy of consideration against Felix Doubront.

Hector Noesi versus Edwin Jackson should be a high scoring affair, just watch out for rain.

Lefty Rangers and righty Rockies are the plays tonight in Colorado. My consultee is tired of me trotting out Prince Fielder. A home run from him would have doubled our winnings, so I don’t blame him.

The Padres have a lousy offense, yet there are a couple lefties who could benefit from some quality time against Jeremy Guthrie. And Petco is actually friendly to lefty hitters.

3. Wednesday Watch

The A’s and Mariners have a doubleheader tomorrow. Enjoy.

Pitchers to Start: Tim Lincecum‘s biggest problem is home runs. I’ll continue to target him in places where home runs are scarce.

Rick Porcello will face the Astros. I think it’s a good thing. What do you think Martha?

Pitchers to Exploit: Bronson Arroyo has the unpleasant task of pitching in Milwaukee. Beware fly balls.

Aside from a ton of home runs, Dan Straily‘s peripherals seem fine. The Mariners are rather left-handed and lefties have mashed Straily.

Danny Salazar versus Ricky Nolasco: A meeting of two pitchers who have seemingly lost it. “It” being the ability to pitch to a low ERA.

I bet the A’s really get after Erasmo Ramirez in the second game of the doubleheader. He’ll look like he’s throwing beach balls after Felix Hernandez.

There’s Brad Peacock waiting to be hammered by the Tigers.

Travis Wood and John Danks travel across town for Wednesday’s game. At The Cell, all pitchers are in danger of self-immolation.

Jorge de la Rosa versus Colby Lewis sounds like a stomping match.

Speaking of which, pull out the right-handed hitters for Vidal Nuno versus Hector Santiago.

Hitters (power): Try a couple Phillies righties against Mark Buehrle. They say Buehrle is harder on righties. The data says he pitches them the same, but I’ll use Marlon Byrd and John Mayberry Jr. all the same.

Get yourself a C.J. Cron for Nuno. I’ve actually picked him up outright in two leagues while I evaluate him.

Yangervis Solarte is worth consideration for his balls in play skill set.

Gordon Beckham seems to bat up in the order against left-handed pitchers.

Michael Brantley is a middle of the order bat at the moment. His matchup tomorrow is lovely.

Hitters (speed): Michael Saunders and Brad Miller are good targets for a swipe or two.

Is the Donnie Murphy the Rangers two hole? I guess he’s worthy of a stream start if so.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Chicago has a risk of rain today. The rest of the league is clear, so monitor the weather carefully if you’re thinking about using anyone in Chicago.

The Link. The factor grid looks similar to yesterday, except there are even more red stadiums for pitcher picks. I think it’s pretty obvious where you want your offense today.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


24 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 5-6-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Satoshi Nakamoto says:

    Huge if but if Cron can get over his nervousness quickly he could take advantage of some juicy matchups over the next month.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. ABSkippers says:

    Brad, what make you of Khris Davis? Atrocious peripherals. Atrocious. O-swing%, contact %, swstr, etc all headed in wrong direction. But he has a track record of solid walk rates and high but not obscene K rates, and a .200 ISO is hard to come by these days.

    12 team mixed roto keeper. I’m 3rd in saves but injury and trades have left me without a closer for the time being. I can dump Davis for Jim Johnson (I have Gregerson) or possibly some other middling closer, which seems disappointing. Is he worth holding on to or just dump him?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • FeslenR says:

      if you need power, hang onto Khris. If not, dump.

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    • Brad Johnson says:

      I quietly wasn’t buying Khris Davis heading into the season. He reminded me of John Mayberry, but I wasn’t confident in my assessment. Having watched him a bit this season, I think the Brewers need to option him so he can mash some weaker competition.

      That said, I’m not sure it’s worth your time to go after a middling reliever. Personally, I’d rather roster a handful of elite setup men and wait for the dust to settle.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. chri521 says:

    Did you go with your strategy of entering a lot of higher buying 50/50 or doubleups?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      I rebooted my POC after I lost interest the first time. I’m doing one $1 entry per day. Right now I’m 1 for 3. I might try to scale if after a month I have a 66% or better win percentage. Otherwise, the money just isn’t there.

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      • chri521 says:

        Ah so you do the daily bunt and try to nail a lineup, and on days you feel really confident you try and multiple enter the $2 squeezes as well?

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      • chri521 says:

        Woops commented before I saw your other answer, nice work. Been trying to work on optimizing stacking and it looks like mini stacks have been working out better than full team stacks for these tourneys.

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      • Brad Johnson says:

        FanDuel forces mini-stacks anyway with a max of four players per team.

        On FanDuel, I do the bunt and single plus 3-10 Squeeze entries (depends on the day). My consultee uses DraftKings where I enter about $6.25 worth of games. Just enough for me to track the lineups I give him without his log in data.

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      • chri521 says:

        Can take this off to DM if you want but always curious, how does your consultee arrangement work if you don’t mind telling? Is it like a financial advisor / money manager where you guide decision making for someone’s bankroll and agree to a cut of profit?

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  4. amoonguss99 says:

    I was foolish and faded tulo. Thought I could put the money to better use – I couldn’t. What’d you hit that put you up 750? Yesterday was prob my biggest or second biggest losing ;)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      $600 in the Single, $48 in the bunt, $1.80 in a 50/50, $111 across three DraftKings contests.

      Eovaldi
      Posey
      Fielder
      Gennett
      Carpenter
      Tulo
      Barnes
      Stubbs
      Choo

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      • amoonguss99 says:

        Solid work… I think of how I faded tulo and smh haha.

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      • Brad Johnson says:

        I keep ending up with Tulo even though his price is restrictive. For what he costs, he has to hit 2 HR to payoff. Without a cheap Eovaldi option yesterday, there was no way I could roster him.

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  5. David says:

    is the Factor Grid Renovation now complete?

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  6. Chris says:

    Another Khris Davis question,

    Currently have him and George Springer on my bench with Trout, Blackmon, Cain as my starters. Do I drop Davis or Springer for any of the following:

    Saunders
    Villar
    B. Pena
    K. Suzuki
    Cron
    Tavares (on waivers until tomorrow and I have waiver #15 so I doubt I get him anyway)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      You could try speculating on Taveras. It doesn’t hurt to put in a bid even if it’s very unlikely. I don’t think Cron is likely to outperform Davis, but he might. And if Davis is firmly on you bench, then it doesn’t hurt to speculate. I think we’re pretty sure Davis won’t have a .406 wOBA or .316 ISO anytime in the near future.

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