- How to use the Factor Grid
- DFS Picks
- Fish Friday
- Table Talk
1. How to use the Factor Grid
If the player picks are the meat and potatoes of this column, the Factor Grid is the savory gravy. Without it, the meal is filling, but not very special. Understanding how to use the grid can help fantasy players of all shapes and sizes. Luckily, I’ve written a post specifically on this topic.
The weather component is the black box section. I use a third party holistic grade from SI Weather. I do not know anything about their formulas. What I do know is their 0-10 grades correlated with home run production in 2012. Zeroes are bad, 10’s are good, and everything in between is in between. It would be great if I could say each increment correlated to a 2 percent increase in home run production, but I can’t. I use the grades to inform my choices, but the park factors take 96 percent of the weight.
2. DFS Decisions
Early: Two games are in the early bin, which force an “all day” option. I avoid all day games like something you would want to avoid, especially on a platform like FanDuel. On some other platforms, you can sub after the contest starts but before each individual game.
So unless you like all day contests more than me, you’ll miss out on the Kevin Correia special.
Late: We have seven games late. Some people prefer the full slate of options, I do not. The thin slate usually means fewer points are needed to win. Skill can get you in the 40-50 point range with frequency, but only pure luck can take you above 70 points.
Matt Harrison has to contend with a potent Rockies lineup. They sawed through the Rangers’ first three offerings like kindle – two of which were fellow lefties.
Jake Arrieta and Scott Carroll also have a hitter friendly stadium to contend with. The difference is the quality of competition. The two pitchers have combined to allow one run over three starts, so recent performance is on their side. You should know I don’t give a fiddlers fiddle for recency. (On a similar note, Adam Jones made me a lot of money last night).
3. Friday Fried Lutefisk
And we’re back to 15-headed action, and they’re all night games. Good, I get to sleep in tomorrow.
The Corey Kluber express is gaining steam once again. Tomorrow, he’ll pitch in a very pitcher friendly park.
Doug Fister is back tomorrow, although I’m unsure who I feel about a debut matchup against the Athletics.
Pitchers to Exploit: Scott Feldman returns from the disabled list tomorrow to face the Orioles and the specters of regression.
Left-handed Rangers will benefit from a dose of Clay Buchholz. He’s getting through some of his outings on pitchability, but not all of them.
I wouldn’t necessarily bet against him, but I do worry about Brandon McCarthy at U.S. Cellular Bandstand.
The Nationals have a few right-handed hitters who punish lefty-pitchers like Tommy Milone.
Brandon Maurer does not seem to be reliable insofar as his skill as a starting pitcher. He does seem to show up on time, which is a different type of reliability.
Hitters (power): Tyler Moore will either start at first or designated hitter.
C.J. Cron appears to be getting a full trial.
Hitters (speed): Norichika Aoki is still a leadoff hitter, which makes him valuable against struggling righties like Maurer.
Leonys Martin may bat second against Buchholz. Not leadoff, but close.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Most of today’s weather is clear or protected by a dome. Texas appears to have thunderstorms lined up for during the day. They may linger into the evening, so keep an eye out. Similarly, Chicago has a very low risk of storms. These are the top games for run scoring, so watch carefully.
The Link. Two of the three best stadiums tonight have a storm risk. It’s also expected to rain in Toronto, but they have a dome.
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