- Ideal Lineup Followup
- Daily DFS
- Wednesday Picks
1. More Thoughts on Lineups
This is a reaction to last night’s crazy contest. I entered two teams on FanDuel, one of which scored 53 points. There have been days where I’ve made a lot of money with 53 points and days where I’ve missed entirely. More often than not, you’ll finish towards the bottom of the money with a point total over 50. That particular roster only had three good hitters – Victor Martinez, Jose Reyes, and Jason Kipnis. Combined with Charlie Morton, they fueled the point total with multi-hit games and two home runs. If you’ll recall, my target is six home runs.
My other lineup was a doozy, but it only earned a 10x profit because, well, yesterday was crazy. In this case, four players provided most of my offense – Lonnie Chisenhall, Kipnis, Scott Van Slyke, and Adam Eaton. Stephen Strasburg nearly matched Morton’s point total. The end result was a whopping 83.5 points, a total that would win the Squeeze three out of four nights. Last night, I finished a disappointing 92nd.
The moral of the story? It’s not the points total you’re targeting, but rather above average production from all hitters. In a deep GPP, other people are going to have Chisenhall and Van Slyke in the same lineup, so you need to add Reyes, Brantley, Kipnis, and Victor Martinez if you want a shot at the gold. It’s not enough to spike five home runs out of two lineup spots, you have to have production across the board.
Of course, you have very little control over this, it’s just what you’re hoping will happen.
2. Daily DFS
Early: For whatever reason, the Astros and Diamondbacks square off for an afternoon contest. Slash them off your game board for DFS.
Late: The Orioles Chris Tillman isn’t as effective as he was last season. The Red Sox have a chance to go off as a result.
The Pirates have promoted top prospects Gregory Polanco just in time to face fellow lefty Travis Wood. While the Pirates-Wood matchup isn’t the best in DFS (the game is to be played at stingy PNC Park), Pittsburgh does feature the top lefty masher in baseball. Hint: it’s their best player.
The Kevin Correia versus J.A. Happ matchup has the potential for fireworks. Their collective ERA adds up to over 10 (why would you add ERA’s?), and the game will be at the Rogers Centre. The Twins are rather right-handed, which should benefit them a bit against Happ. Meanwhile, the Jays offense is just unfair.
Marco Estrada has been particularly homer prone this season – more than past seasons even. The Mets have enough lefties to do some real damage. On the other side of this one is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who’s actually pitching pretty well. Still, he’s Daisuke so there’s no reason to trust him.
The Texas Rangers got all kinds of pummeled yesterday. I’m sure they’re glad to kick the Indians out of town after the 17 runs they allowed yesterday. They only used four pitchers, so the bullpen isn’t super shorthanded, they’re just poorly positioned to handle another clunker. Colby Lewis hasn’t been on top of his game this season, so the Marlins may benefit.
The Detroit Tigers face a lefty at U.S. Cellular Field. The lefty is not Clayton Kershaw (did you know he’s a Dodger?), so it’s safe to target this matchup. And for the record, it’s Ordinary John Danks who will start for Chicago.
Hector Santiago is back! It seems Tyler Skaggs will need a trip to the disabled list with a gimpy hammy, so Santiago gets another spin at starting. In three Triple-A starts, he was actually worse than he was at the major league level. Expect the Athletics to steamroll him.
Yankee starter Vidal Nuno will pitch in Seattle tonight. I usually target Vidal Sassoon, but I think the Mariners lineup might not be worth the effort. Besides, there are so many better places to go.
3. Wednesday Picks
Pitchers to Start: Marcus Stroman is coming off two swell starts and he’ll face a middling Twins lineup. Stock some tasty Stroman rolls for your fantasy feast.
I’ve been staying clear of Trevor Bauer, but it’s time to dust him off for a game against one of baseball’s worst offenses – the Royals.
Jacob DeGrom is probably good enough to chew through a potent but very right-handed Brewers lineup. There’s plenty of potential for this one to go sideways, so have a care.
I’m still buying on Brandon McCarthy. Either his 3.80 FIP or 2.76 xFIP have to be more indicative of his future performance than his ugly 5.13 ERA. Right? Right?
Pitchers to Exploit: I think I may have pointed out the depleted nature of the Rangers lineup in past columns (ahem, I know I did). They’re still depleted, but I don’t think you need to be Shin-Soo Choo to hit Jacob Turner. Then again, the Rangers still have Choo on the active roster.
The Rockies debut former top prospect Tyler Matzek tomorrow. Unfortunately, the lefty will face the toughest offense against southpaws – the Braves – at the worst park for pitchers. He has serious command and control issues.
Jonathan Singleton will face McCarthy. He’s seemingly homer prone with this new approach, which Singleton might enjoy.
Jonny Gomes is go. Go is Gomes.
Hitters (speed): Leonys Martin is one such Ranger who will face Turner.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
We have all kinds of weather warnings at this early point in the day. Games in Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York, and Chicago all have a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain. The game in Cincinnati is listed as having a 70 percent chance of rain.
The Link. Green and red, green and red. It must be Christmas in June, except we’re getting rain instead snow. ~I’m dreaming, of a graaaaaaaay Christmas.
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