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The Daily Grind: 6-21-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Daily Adjusted Park Factors
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Sunday Pick
  4. Table

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1. Daily Park Factors

First, an operational note. I will be out Sunday and probably Monday due to an anniversary. You’ll survive.

Somehow, I was unaware that parkfactors.com provided daily adjusted park factors. Since it’s not split by handedness, it’s not really granular enough to be too helpful, but it is a nice quick reference on stadium quality. I assume the number reported is for run scoring.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Nine of the 15 games are early, including all of the best plays for offense.

A couple premium Orioles hitters are worth a glance against Yankees starter Vidal Nuno.

While it’s not the best environment for offense, Andre Rienzo and Kevin Correia have been known to allow their fair share of hits. Hits lead to base runners, base runners lead to runs, runs lead to the dark side.

Wily Peralta‘s job is difficult simply due to Coors Field and the opposing lineup. Christian Friedrich has it much harder. He was getting railed in the minors and now he’ll face what I consider to be the scariest lineup against left-handed pitchers.

Jake Buchanan (not to be confused with David) is new, so I’ll mention him. He’s a command and control type with upper-80’s velocity. Don’t expect much, but he might not be somebody to wantonly exploit.

Late: Six games will be a part of the evening contest.

Justin Verlander‘s velocity was briefly back on track, but it cratered again in his most recent contest. As you may know, he was pummeled. This time around, he’ll face an Indians offense well suited to the left-handed park factors of Progressive Field.

The Pirates happen to own the very best hitter against left-handed pitchers. It’s the guy you think it is. The rest of the lineup can take a hike as far as I’m concerned, that one play against Travis Wood is well worth it.

Nick Martinez has decent stuff, but the Angels lineup is a tough nut to crack.

Given his home runs tendencies this season, you may want to try Giants against Brandon McCarthy. I won’t be testing out the San Fran stack, but you’re sure welcome to try it.

3. Sunday Picks

Pitchers to Start: I’m not sure I understand why Jon Niese is still widely available. His strikeout rate isn’t interesting and his 2.67 ERA is quite a bit below his 3.55 FIP. However, plenty of lesser pitchers carry higher ownership rates. He faces the Marlins tomorrow.

I won’t be betting on Matt Shoemaker to out pitch Yu Darvish. However, Shoemaker has provided strong strikeout and walk rates. His issue has been home runs, but it’s such a tiny sample that we can’t state with certainty that he’s any different than the average hurler.

Pitchers to Exploit: Anthony DeSclafani offers moderately interesting strikeout and walk numbers, but his tendency to allow fly balls has burned him through his first three starts. Facing the Mets at home qualifies as a very soft exploit.

The Yankees battered lefty stack will face struggling righty Chris Tillman at Yankee Stadium. The short porch is always a smart target for fantasy owners.

Carlos Martinez wasn’t doing terribly well in the bullpen. Now he’ll make his second start out of the rotation. He went four strong innings last time around, so he might eclipse the five inning threshold if he pitches well.

Eric Stults lives and dies on balls in play. Except this season he’s also died by the long ball. Assuming his home run rate regresses to career norms, he’s still a decent pick to throw the occasional clunker.

If the Brewers hit anything like they did last night, they’ll be pretty tired heading into game three against lefty Tyler Matzek. Still, we have hitters who destroy lefty pitching and Coors Field. We have to bet on them, right?

Hitters (power): Mark Reynolds and Rickie Weeks are easy picks yet again. Martin Maldonado might mix in too if he doesn’t play today.

Scott Van Slyke will probably start against Stults.

Jonny Gomes will get the call versus Tommy Milone.

Maybe Kelly Johnson will lay into a pitch against Tillman. I expected more out of him this season.

Hitters (speed): Leonys Martin sometimes draws top of the order reps against righties.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

There are a bunch of 20 percent chances today. My interpretation of 20 percent is “probably zero, but not certainly.”

The Link. A 10 weather rating at Coors Field – I’m frightened by the implications.

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