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The Daily Grind: 6-24-14

Posted By Brad Johnson On June 24, 2014 @ 12:00 pm In Daily Fantasy Update | 2 Comments

Agenda

  1. The Grind is Back
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Wednesday Picks
  4. Table

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1.The Grind is Back

After a two day hiatus, the Grind is back in town says Thin Lizzy. Hopefully, the last couple days just proved I taught you the skills and processes necessary to succeed on your own. My job is a little weird. Nominally, I’m supposed to drive page hits, yet if my column is successful, you’ll eventually be comfortable enough to go out into the wild on your own.

The next few weeks could be a bit patchy as I’ll be working while travelling. I should have a post everyday, but this section might not be a bit thinner than normal.

2. Daily DFS

Everything is late today. Since we didn’t have a post yesterday, I’ll separate by pitchers I like and pitchers I don’t like.

To Start: Andrew Heaney is a pretty easy pick for a starter, although he’s already owned in anything like a keeper league. I’m not entirely sold on his minor league strikeout rates translating to the majors, but they should still be good enough for fantasy purposes. He’ll face an occasionally awful Phillies offense.

The Cincinnati Reds offense is a disappointment this season. However, it’s been better recently, probably thanks to Billy Hamilton actually reaching base. Jake Arrieta has pitched really well through nine starts, but I’d still consider selling high. I’m not sure he can maintain his current strikeout and walk rates.

If you want the premium picks, Clayton Kershaw is an obvious choice against the low-impact Royals. Tim Hudson is another good gamble versus the Padres.

To Exploit: On the other side of the Heaney matchup is David Buchanan. If you ignore the high, high home run rate, he’s starting to look like a viable major league starter. A career best walk rate probably isn’t sustainable. Regression would cancel out all the positive things I just said.

David Phelps is a decent pitcher, but he’s the kind of guy who will occasionally implode. The Blue Jays have an offense capable of exploding. I think an implosion plus an explosion zeroes out, so maybe my lazy metaphor failed, but I think you understand my point. There’s a small chance for big offense.

Colby Lewis has continued to struggle with his actual results. A .395 BABIP will do that. His peripherals don’t look terrible on the surface, although he’s walked more than he’s struck out three out of his last five outings. Command and control is Lewis’ game, and it seems like he’s more than a bit off.

Unimpressive peripherals and Coors Field conspire against Jorge de la Rosa. The Cardinals have a couple hitters who are better against left-handed pitching, and they’re also fairly cheap too.

I’d happily target either side of the Jake Peavy versus Erasmo Ramirez game. Safeco Field isn’t a place to get excited about offense, and neither lineup is particularly dynamic. Some owners may even want to try starting Peavy since the M’s unit can put up their share of goose eggs.

3. Wednesday Picks

Pitchers to Start: What do I know about Marco Gonzales? He’s flown through the Cardinals minor league system after being drafted in 2013. He controls walks and records a decent number of strikeouts. He’ll also make his major league debut at Coors Field. I’ve speculated on him, but I probably won’t actually start him.

Charlie Morton has his usual boring but probably serviceable matchup. This time he’ll face the Rays at Tropicana Field.

Alex Wood is back to start. If you have a slow moving league, jump on him. He’s opposed by Collin McHugh.

Henderson Alvarez has a tiny little strikeout rate, but he’s otherwise predictable. Think of him as Bartolo Colon with more walks and ground balls.

Pitchers to Exploit: Christian Bergman might not be cut out for Coors. He’s allowed plenty of fly balls and 25 percent of them have left the yard.

I haven’t quite figured out how to fit Hector Noesi into a bucket. I think I agree with the White Sox; there’s potential for a breakout. We’re not seeing it now, which means tomorrow is a good time to pick up Orioles.

Soft-tossing lefty Brad Mills is probably a target. He’s certainly an interesting story with his $1 purchase price.

Speaking of soft-tossers, Yohan Pino throws pillows from the left-side. Actually, anyone who played advanced baseball knows 88 mph is still pretty stiff. In any case, his first outing was strong, but I’m not sure how well he can replicate it against the Angels.

Hitters (power): C.J. Cron is now a most-everyday designate hitter. Huzzah.

I miss when I could recommend Michael Brantley. I guess David Murphy is the left-handed Indian to target.

It’s hard to guess when Derek Dietrich will start, but he can pop the occasional bomb when he does. Dietrich’s allure is his position more than his skills.

Seth Smith has a very low ownership rate given his adequate production. He’ll face homer prone Tim Lincecum at cavernous AT&T Park.

Hitters (speed): Drew Stubbs should draw the start against Gonzales.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

There appears to be a 50 percent chance of storms at Coors Field. Since almost everyone wanders Denver-way for hitters, you’ll want to pay close attention to the weather map.

The Link. Plenty of places to go for offense. And I think it’s pretty obvious where pitching conditions are ideal.

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