- Platoon Man Downside
- Daily DFS
- Saturday Picks
1. Platoon Man Downside
Today features one of our regular platoon bats – Jonny Gomes – against lefty Vidal Nuno. Gomes has continued to mash left-handed pitching this season, with a .385 wOBA. Against righties, he’s managed a mere .237 wOBA. In both cases the sample size is similar and small (about 100 plate appearances). Obviously, today is a good day to snag Gomes.
Here’s the problem some owners overlook. Gomes’ start against Nuno is worth roughly 2.25 favorable plate appearances. He’ll either be subbed once a reliever comes in or his expected outcomes will be below fantasy replacement level. Either event isn’t great. When you forecast four plate appearances for Gomes, you should be splitting his time between lefties and righties. Instead of a .380 wOBA, you might be wise to expect something closer to a .310 wOBA. That’s keeping the math very simple, what you actually end up with are two high value at bats and two low value at bats.
2. Daily DFS
Early: Two games are early, including the first game of the Rays-Orioles doubleheader. The Nationals and Cubs also play in the mid-afternoon.
Late: That leaves 14 games for the evening crowd. Close enough to a full slate.
Yankees southpaw Nuno is eminently targetable. Yankees Stadium is friendlier to left-handed hitters, but it’s nice enough to righties too. The Sox have a few righties worth a look, including the aforementioned Gomes.
Jacob deGrom has decent surface stats, but I’m not sure how long they’ll last given his low ground ball rate and high-ish walk rate. PNC Park is a good place to pitch, but I think the Pirates lineup has just enough weapons to be dangerous. On the other side of the matchup is Brandon Cumpton with his ball-in-play oriented skill set.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, John Danks is fine. He turns in some very strong outings but sometimes he really blows up. The Toronto offense is not a bad place to bet on one of those blow ups.
Tyler Matzek has a tough matchup today against the Brewers. Surprisingly, the Brew Crew is middle of the pack against left-handed hurlers. It’s particularly surprising because they own three of the 20 best hitters against southpaws.
3. Saturday Picks
We have two doubleheaders tomorrow. The Phillies and Braves square off twice in Philadelphia, while the Cubs and Nationals will take two turns in Chicago.
Pitchers to Start: Marcus Stroman has more than enough stuff to get by in the majors. He keeps running into bad pitching matchups. The White Sox lineup isn’t the problem, it’s picher Chris Sale. Last time around he ran into Masahiro Tanaka.
Jon Niese isn’t as good as his 2.78 ERA, but he is better than his 40 percent ownership rate. PNC Park is a good place to use him.
Blake Treinen is back for another spot start with the Nationals. His repertoire is not very advanced – he basically just throws hard fastballs. If he can coax a little more usefulness out of his slider and changeup, maybe his strikeout rate would tick up. He rolls a lot of ground balls, just don’t expect many punch outs.
Pitchers to Exploit: As if one Dallas wasn’t enough, the Cubs will add a second one to major league baseball – Dallas Beeler. He’s not much of anything if his stats are to be believed. He’ll cut an imposing figure on the hill – he’s about six and a half feet tall. He supposedly works in the low 90’s and features good control. Conspicuously absent are strikeouts. My guess is he throws a lot of early count strikes and hitters jump on them.
It seems Hector Santiago is needed back in the rotation. He’s a fly ball pitcher with unimpressive peripherals. Maybe the Royals will actually hit a home run or two.
Sean O’Sullivan will spot start the second game for the Phillies. He’s never had much success getting pitches past major league hitters.
Luis Valbuena sprays line drives, so he might be useful due to the doubleheader.
Sean Rodriguez‘s middle infield eligibility could come in handy tomorrow.
Steve Pearce is growing in popularity. He’s getting reps near the top of the Orioles lineup some nights. His .418 wOBA is helped by a .391 BABIP. Expect a wOBA closer to .350.
Rajai Davis has a decent matchup if he plays.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Looks like we’re all clear on the weather, although Philadelphia could see an isolated shower.
The Link. The weather ratings are pretty strong around the league, but you still have a nice wide range of choices available.
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