- Vacation Proofing Your Roster
- Daily DFS
- Sunday Picks
1. Vacation Proofing Your Roster
This is an obvious, albeit necessary measure for many of us over the Independence Day holiday. Let’s assume you won’t have your usual access to your team. Perhaps certain people will be peeved if they catch tinkering on your cell phone.
You’ve played three months and now is not the time to lose your hard won margins. The answer to the vacation blackout is some good old fashioned hard work. Owners who have been streaming should prepare to insert a semi-permanent solution into that stream spot. Something you can fire and forget. You’ll also need to plot out matchups for the days you’ll be missing. Most platforms let you set player rosters up to a week in advance, if not more. Generally speaking, you’ll want your position players to be every day types, starting pitchers you can use indiscriminately, and plenty of relievers to offset lesser performance from your starters.
2. Daily DFS
Early: With two doubleheaders, it’s a busy day. We have 10 games in the early contest.
Dallas Beeler has shown good control in the minors, but it’s unclear if he’s cut out for major league spot starts. There are probably better targets out there.
Hector Santiago is a fly ball pitcher with otherwise mediocre peripherals. The profile is less scary against the Royals, but there’s still potential for fireworks.
The Orioles feature a few prominent right-handed bats. They’ll gain the platoon advantage against Erik Bedard.
Jhoulys Chacin has terrible strikeout and walk numbers this season. On the one hand, he isn’t playing at Coors Field. On the other hand, he is playing at Miller Park, which allows only six percent fewer home runs than Coors (although 28 percent fewer runs).
Brett Oberholtzer has been absent for a bit. He’ll start in place of Dallas Keuchel, who has swelling in his wrist. The left-handed Oberholtzer actually features solid peripherals, but he’ll have to navigate the Detroit juggernaut if he wants to improve his surface level stats today.
Late: Seven games qualify for the late slot.
It’s possible Blake Treinen won’t have much bullpen behind him, which could work out as a good or bad thing. To be clear, I’m not saying to stack against him indiscriminately. The events of the first game could affect how valuable he is in the second game.
David Hale has ugly peripherals this season. He’s a ground ball pitcher without too much else going on. Strikeouts and walks have been a problem this year – he’s served up 22 of each in 48.2 innings. He’ll face the Phillies in the second game of their doubleheader.
On the other side of the Braves matchup is Sean O’Sullivan. He’s never had much success retiring major league hitters. There’s no reason to expect a change tonight.
Lefty Eric Stults is fortunate to call Petco Park home. He’ll face the Diamondbacks today. The 86 park factor for right-handed home runs may save his bacon.
3. Sunday Picks
Since the Nationals and Cubs are playing a scheduled doubleheader, the two clubs are off tomorrow. It’s a rare 14 game schedule for Sunday.
Pitchers to Start: One of my issues with Aaron Harang is he doesn’t throw enough innings per start. That’s putting the cart ahead of the horse – he doesn’t pitch deep because he’s not talented enough to do so. The Braves may be forced to ride him pending the outcome of today’s doubleheader. That could be a good thing, or it could be a bad thing. The Phillies matchup is nice, and he’s opposed by an exploitable starter.
I’d like to mention Odrisamer Despaigne if only because it’s a sweet name. He had problems with walks in the minors and I wouldn’t actually use him tomorrow in a normal depth league.
Chase Whitley‘s matchup against the Red Sox is a mite concerning. There’s a lot to like about his ability to limit walks, which makes him a nice waiver pick up. On another team, he could even be a down roster, permanent addition. With the Yankees playing plenty of dynamic rosters at their short fenced stadium, I wouldn’t dedicate a full time spot to him.
Pitchers to Exploit: Andrew Heaney went a little melty last time around. I’m not down on him – to the contrary, I’ve been buying up shares wherever available. However, a matchup against the Atleticos is less than ideal for the lefty.
Alex Cobb‘s velocity was at a season low in his last start. A 90.8 mph fastball isn’t alarming when your average gas is 91.7 mph, but it could maybe possibly be a sign of a problem.
David Buchanan isn’t likely to have much relief available behind him due to today’s doubleheader and a 14 inning game on Thursday. The Phils asked Kyle Kendrick to bite the bullet yesterday, which he did. Tomorrow they’ll probably ask the same of Buchanan.
The Brewers will face lefty Jorge de la Rosa. The biggest issue in his game is command and control. He could very well be a better pitcher than he is if only he could locate better.
The Twins aren’t an offensive machine, but so long as Colby Lewis continues to allow an ERA near 6.00, he’s somebody to target. His FIP is all the way down at 4.43. Unless you believe there is something to his .397 BABIP, regression should kick in immediately.
Hitters (power): Derek Norris is available to play, and he probably will. A matchup against Heaney appears desirable.
Oswaldo Arcia has been forgotten; this may not last long. He’ll face Lewis.
Dayan Viciedo will have the platoon advantage against Mark Buehrle. His (Buehrle’s) splits are pretty even and announcers even talk up how opposing managers like to use same-handed hitters against him. I’ll still take Viciedo.
Hitters (speed): Every time I open Brock Holt‘s player page, I come face to face with a STEVE HOLT joke. Let’s pretend that’s the reason why I’m recommending him. It’s certainly not the short porch or small chance at a stolen base.
Tommy La Stella had off against a righty yesterday. He may have off again if he plays both games today. If he plays, he’s an interesting choice again Buchanan.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Chicago and Kansas City could see some isolated storms. The risk is around 30-40 percent.
The Link. My phone is on the fritz, so no weather update today. The colors are a holdover from yesterday.
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