- Call of the Ocean
- Daily DFS
- Monday Picks
1. Call of the Ocean
I am on semi-vacation, by which I mean I am doing all the things I do every week, but from a vacationy location. I mention this not just to gloat or fix on an easy topic. I know some of you like me to answer time sensitive questions. While I can never guarantee I’ll see them in time, the chance is smaller this week. You may want to arrange a backup or rely on your own mettle.
2. Daily DFS
Early: Nine games are to be played in the early afternoon with the Cubs and Nationals taking an unusual Sunday off.
Andrew Heaney, by virtue of being young and inexperienced, may make for a decent stacking option. I’ve been picking him out as a bargain play – I’m 1-for-2 on those picks. Today he’ll face the Athletics and I want no part of that.
The Rays do not feature a ferocious offense, but Miguel Gonzalez allows greater than the usual rate of home runs. He’s a decent pitcher who doesn’t meltdown often, so you may just want to take a stab at a lefty or two who might poke one over the fence.
David Buchanan actually has a decent 3.85 xFIP. It’s his 4.79 ERA and his perceived weakness to home runs we’re targeting. Small samples be damned, Buchanan passes the eye test for a homer prone pitcher.
You me, I target just about any lefty against the Brewers. Jorge de la Rosa is a lefty. You saw that coming, didn’t you?
Colby Lewis‘ peripherals remain better than his near six ERA. We’ll see if he remains extremely hittable today. I’ve grudgingly stopped targeting Kyle Gibson. He was never a perfect target due to his decent ground ball rate.
Late: Late equals 4:05 and on. There are five such games and not many weak pitchers.
Mike Bolsinger has been bit by that plaguey homer bug during his short stay in the majors. I haven’t caught any of his starts since the Diamondbacks are usually blacked out for me. He’s opposed by Ordisamer Despaigne. He’s had a bit of a walk problem in his brief professional career.
There is some stank underneath Shelby Miller‘s 3.75 ERA – specifically a 4.76 FIP. We sabermetric types predicted his decline months ago, yet his results remain decent. In a thin contest, you can consider targeting him.
3. Monday Picks
We have 11 games tomorrow.
Pitchers to Start: Jake Arrieta‘s ownership is spiking. He’ll be back in an AL East park tomorrow – Fenway. We should probably expect regression in his strikeout and walk rates, which will lead to a higher ERA.
I don’t have a clean read on Jesse Hahn. Other people will want to use him, but I’m not so sure. The matchup (Reds) isn’t bad and neither is the park (Petco).
Pitchers to Exploit: I find myself targeting David Phelps almost every time he pitches at home. I’ll reassert myself – I actually like Phelps. He’ll face the Rays.
Ubaldo Jimenez is the volatile pitcher throwing at Camden Yards tomorrow, but I want to target Nick Tepesch. Baltimore’s park is even more home run friendly than Arlington, and the O’s have a bit of pop to unleash.
Yohan Flande is going to have a tough time navigating the Nationals lineup.
The power happy Angels visit power friendly U.S. Cellular Field to deliver a beating to Hector Noesi. Just when it looked like he might get his ERA under 5.00, he drew this matchup.
Another soft-tossing Yohan, this one surnamed Pino (Yohan Pino for the player linker), will face a tepid Royals lineup at pitcher friendly Target Field. The positive external attributes don’t outweigh his skill set.
Hitters (power): Wilson Ramos is probably sitting around the waiver for anyone in a one catcher league.
Matt Joyce still gets his customary recommendation despite failing the “what have you done for me lately” test.
Mike Moustakas is a good choice against Pino.
Hitters (speed): Kole Calhoun is still floating around 56 percent of leagues despite pulling plenty of starts as the Angels leadoff man.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The Pirates might see late thunderstorms. The rest of the league is free and clear.
The Link. There are great conditions for home runs league wide.
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