- Buying or Selling
- Daily DFS
- Traditional Tuesday
1. Buying or Selling
My colleague Chad Young recently wrote about the decision to buy or sell in Ottoneu. His points are pertinent in most keeper leagues, so go ahead and give it a read.
My own advice on the buy/sell decision is a little different. We have about three-fifths of the season remaining, which is a lot of time to make up ground. You never know who’s going to experience a plague of injuries, make a bad cut decision/trade, or pick up the next high value stud for free. With so much up in the air, I’m almost always looking to buy. My team has to be completely shot to hell for me to throw in the towel. Over the years, I’ve been rewarded for my stick-to-it-ness with a few unexpected finishes in the money.
I think fantasy owners draw too many examples from real baseball. Sure, the Marlins’ tear ’em down strategy has resulted in two World Series championships. They’ve also had a lot of very unenjoyable seasons. Things can change very rapidly in baseball. It’s a lot easier to maximize team value in the present than one year from now.
2. Daily DFS
Early: Sorry for ya, you’re not using the Mariners-Rays game today.
Late: Tony Cingrani has regressed. He strikeouts are down, walks up, and the home runs are flying. Great American Ballpark is not a pleasant home venue for a fly ball pitcher. The Dodgers have a good shot at a home run or three, even if Yasiel Puig remains out of the lineup.
Jake Peavy appears to be on the decline. The Orioles aren’t the best offense against right-handed pitchers (or the worst). Adam Jones is running hot and Chris Davis is always an attractive pick against mediocre righties.
Despite losing two straight shutouts, the Toronto Blue Jays sure know how to mash. Ricky Nolasco and the Twins are visiting the Rogers Centre today. That means five of the first six hitters in the lineup will be big time home run threats. The other – Jose Reyes – can swat a few bombs too.
The Tigers face Hector Noesi. The White Sox think there’s something to be salvaged with Noesi, but the operation is moving slowly. At least his FIP is down to the low-4’s now, which is a sizable improvement from earlier in the season.
The Royals offense is so bad that I almost can’t recommend against Vidal Nuno. Almost. He seems to avoid the big inning, instead allowing runs by dribs and drabs.
Christian Bergman makes his major league debut at Coors Field today against the Braves. He’s a command and control pitcher – nerves can sometimes ruin their first outing. We know Atlanta likes to swing for the fences, so feel free to target the bombs.
Jarred Cosart and Josh Collmenter are exploitable in different ways. Collmenter is weakest against lefties, while Cosart mostly just struggles with walks. We only have two small samples on Cosart, but he has a reverse platoon split in both seasons.
3. Tomorrow’s Picks
Pitchers to Start: The Cardinals have a deceptively mellow offense, which could make Jake Odorizzi a sneaky pick. It’s hard to use a guy with a 5.31 ERA through 12 starts, but his strikeout rate has climbed above 27 percent, and his FIP sits at 3.15 (3.46 xFIP). A .372 BABIP is the main source of his frustration.
Pitchers to Exploit: Chris Tillman is trending in all the wrong directions. More walks and fewer strikeouts will do that to a pitcher. The Red Sox should be happy with the matchup in Camden Yards.
Did I mention the Blue Jays offense is scary good? Kevin Correia and his 6.11 ERA (4.21 FIP) should be worried. He was better about rolling ground balls in his Pittsburgh days.
I rarely pick the Marlins offense, but they’ll play Colby Lewis in Texas tomorrow. Like some of the other guys, Lewis’ 5.77 ERA is much worse than his 4.12 FIP.
Earlier this year, I mentioned Skaggs didn’t quite pass my eye test due to suspect control. He still reminds me a lot of J.A. Happ, which isn’t the most desirable comp. The Athletics can bash lefties as well as righties, so they make for a tough matchup.
John Danks has the unpleasant job of retiring the very right-handed Tigers.
Hitters (power): I like when waiver wire catchers project to provide above average offensive value. Derek Norris is a strong play for tomorrow.
If he starts, J.D. Martinez is an easy pick for power.
Trevor Plouffe mashes lefties. Happ is a lefty.
Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis should have a prominent role against Danks.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The games in Baltimore, Texas, and Kansas City have varying risks for a storm.
The Link. It’s a night of extremes, the grid is purely green and red.
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