The Daily Grind: 7-1-14 – Presented by FanDuel


  1. Some Stolen Basers
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Wednesday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Six Stolen Base Targets

Using ZiPS projections, I picked out six inexpensive stolen base threats. If you need to make up a lot of ground and can’t access Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, or Jose Altuve, you may want to reference that list.

2. Daily DFS

Early: The Brewers and Jays were the only team with an afternoon game until the Angels and White Sox scheduled a doubleheader. In any case, two out of 16 games won’t be available.

Late: A total of 14 games will be played tonight.

Christian Friedrich is one of the top stacking targets tonight. The Nationals have a few potent right-handed bats to deploy against the mediocre lefty.

If the Nationals aren’t your thing, try the Tigers against A’s lefty Brad Mills. He’s a fly ball oriented pitcher against a lineup that can pummel quite a few home runs. The only downside: they’re expensive.

The Edwin Jackson versus Clay Buchholz matchup at Fenway Park could yield plenty of fireworks. I’m encouraged by Buchholz’s increased velocity, but he’ll need to replicate it without allowing three home runs before I’m excited.

Any pitcher who walks 15 percent of batters is on my poop list. Such is the case with Daisuke Matsuzaka. Maybe he doesn’t allow enough contact to be a good DFS target, but I suspect that might be overthinking it.

Scott Carroll is an easy target what with his high 4’s ERA/FIP/xFIP and low-low strikeout rate. The Angels are down one Albert Pujols, but they still have a frightening lineup.

Justin Masterson finally let on that he’s been pitching through a knee injury all season. Now that we know where his velocity went, we can target him more confidently.

3. Wednesday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Red Sox starter Brandon Workman has pitched reasonable well. He’s not the same kind of fantasy asset as Rubby de la Rosa, but he’s an easy play when opposed by a team like the Chicago Cubs.

As usual, if you need an arm, Charlie Morton can provide one. Sans strikeouts of course. He’ll face the Diamondbacks.

Pitchers to Exploit: What do I always say when the Brewers face a lefty? J.A. Happ is left-handed.

Vidal Nuno blanked the Red Sox over 5.2 innings last week. One outing changes nothing – he’s still a likely candidate to allow crooked numbers.

Kevin Correia is exploitable, but I’m not sure the Royals are the right team to execute the exploitation.

The Nationals face another mediocre lefty in Tyler Matzek. He’s struggled with walks in the minors, but they’ve been under control through four big league starts. I never trust that.

Lefties Tyler Skaggs and John Danks must both contend with U.S. Cellular Bandbox. The Angels can really thump lefties, especially a certain fish-surnamed Halo.

Hitters (power): Rickie Weeks and Mark Reynolds remain the most freely available Brewers.

Dayan Viciedo is always an easy pick against lefties.

Maybe Andre Ethier is worth a shot, since Trevor Bauer is a bit fly ball and homer prone.

Trevor Plouffe is off the disabled list. If you’ll recall, he has a bigger platoon split than you might think. He’s usable against lefties.

Sean Rodriguez and his multi-position eligibility will face Nuno.

Hitters (speed): Colin Cowgill will probably start. He may even leadoff.

Leonys Martin is on that list of stolen base targets from section one. He’s seeing more work atop the lineup.

Mookie Betts gets the platoon advantage for the first time in his short major league career. I assume he’ll start.

James Jones and Michael Saunders can swipe bases. They’ll face Brad Peacock.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Minor weather threats abound, so check an updated report closer to game time. The Pittsburgh game looks like it might get the same treatment as Chicago did yesterday.

The Link. Well, it looks like the summer months break the weather component a bit. Not a lot of differentiation when 10 games feature a 10 weather rating.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.

5 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 7-1-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. geo says:

    “Kevin Correia is exploitable, but I’m not sure the Royals are the right team to execute the exploitation”

    You slammed the Royals offense yesterday too. Do you realize that they are 12th in the majors in runs scored and 4th in batting average? Is it just because of the lack of home runs?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      Exactly. Home runs are king in DFS. I’ve had a few times where I’ve caught a four hit day and only came away with four points. One home run is at least six points.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. asdfasdf says:

    Hey Brad, would you drop JD Martinez for Jayson Werth? I could also drop one of 5 closers, the worst being Santiago Casilla. Thanks!

    Vote -1 Vote +1