The Daily Grind: 7-10-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Feature Topic Preview
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Friday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Feature Topic Preview

Once I’m done with the Daily Monster, I plan to write about a couple trades I made yesterday in the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two. The article will be available at 4:15 ET. For now, here’s a teaser, the actual trades sans analysis. Ottoneu allows you to keep any of your 40 players at previous draft price plus $2. There is also an offseason allocation system that can add anywhere from $11 to $33 to your player costs. For example, a $20 Mike Trout can be bid up to $53 or the money can be spread over any number of players.

Trade #1

Clown Meat receives

Craig Kimbrel – $21
Curtis Granderson – $8
Adam Wainwright – $28

Bradley Boo Boo (me) receives

Yasiel Puig – $12
Dallas Keuchel – $2
Dellin Betances – $1
Corey Seager – $4

Trade #2

The Razor Shines receives

Miguel Cabrera – $59
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $5
Seth Smith – $1

Bradley Boo Boo receives

Edwin Encarnacion – $23
Evan Gattis – $4

I’m interested to see what you think of those deals without my justifications and thought process present. More on why I made them later.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Four games will be played early. There are only two obvious targets, but I could see value in trying hitters against Homer Bailey, Matt Garza, or Jose Quintana.

Kyle Hendricks will make his major league debut against a battered Reds team. The right-handed command and control specialist did well in Triple-A, but pitchers of this particular profile don’t always make the transition. Great American Ballpark is not the ideal place to make a debut, but at least it’s not Coors Field. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Billy Hamilton are sidelined, so maybe it’s not all bad.

David Buchanan has the difficult job of stifling the Brewers offense. Buchanan’s sole advantage is the Brewers right-handed attack. The team still hits well against righties, so it’s an empty advantage.

Late: Eight games will be played after 7:00 ET.

If the Orioles game isn’t interrupted by Zeus, you might want to consider a few right-handed hitters against lefty Wei-Yin Chen.

The Indians have a never-ending wave of lefty hitters to use against David Phelps. Progressive Field is friendly to left-handed power. Phelps is too. On the other side of the matchup is T.J. House. He’d be more noteworthy if Progressive Field wasn’t very unfriendly to right-handed power.

I just got done giving the most tepid recommendation to use Aaron Harang on another site. It’s not a good day for pitching. In any case, I could see the Mets posting a big night against Harang. They have plenty of lefty talent.

Jump on either side of the Hector Santiago versus Colby Lewis matchup. If you have money to spend, take the Angels. If not, go after Santiago.

Drew Smyly isn’t bad, but the Royals do have several cost effective players who will have the platoon advantage against him. This is a good place to patch your roster with some cheap, quality talent.

Yohan Pino might survive the season as a back of the rotation type, but he’s still pretty hittable. The Mariners aren’t known for prodigious offense, but they’re good enough to string together some hits. Tom Wilhelmsen starts for the M’s. Not only has he pitched unimpressively (2.49 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 3.73 xFIP), he’s not remotely stretched out for a start. Prepare for a bullpen day.

Odrisamer Despaigne needs to solve his strikeout problem or else he’s going to get pummeled by a real offense. AKA the Dodgers.

3. Fridas Picks

Pitchers to Start: Jeff Locke is risky because his low strikeout rate leaves very little upside for traditional fantasy owners. The good thing about tomorrow’s matchup is he’ll face a decimated Reds lineup.

Similar to Locke, Henderson Alvarez lacks the strikeouts to possess much upside. A matchup against the Mets in New York isn’t bad, but that’s about the best I can say – he isn’t a bad pick.

Pitchers to Exploit: Miguel Gonzalez has always been a good target for home runs, especially when Camden Yards is in play. The Yankees have quite a few uninspiring lefties on the waiver wire.

If Indians hitters are a good target against Phelps, they’re definitely desirable versus Hector Noesi. His ERA has crept under 5.00, but he still allows a lot of fly balls and the typical rate of home runs. The Clevelanders will look to exploit that aspect of his game.

Joe Kelly will make his return from a hamstring injury in time to face the Brewers. Despite a good fastball, Kelly hasn’t found a way to post good peripherals. He has dealt some strong results, and the Cards will hope he replicates those tomorrow. I’m betting on a short outing and shaky command.

Kris Johnson will make his second start of the season. He walked six batters in 4.1 innings in his debut earlier in the season. Somehow, he avoided allowing any runs. While he isn’t a command and control type, he hasn’t posted a BB/9 above 4.00 since 2009. He’s opposed by Jorge de la Rosa. Did I mention this one’s at Coors?

Whenever I see Mike Bolsinger‘s name, I feel like there’s some witty quip on the tip of my tongue. Then I remember I don’t do witty quips, so let’s just do the analysis. He’s a back of the rotation quality pitcher. The Giants have enough offense to score a handful of runs.

Hitters (power): Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts are available to face Gonzalez. Neither player is particularly potent with the stick, especially Roberts. I didn’t want to make a separate entry for him…

Lonnie Chisenhall and David Murphy remain the most available of the Indians stack.

Seth Smith is worth a shot against Dan Haren. Maybe he can pop one.

Trevor Plouffe likes lefties. He should especially like them in Denver.

Hitters (speed): Drew Stubbs and Brandon Barnes should be on call tomorrow.

Brock Holt? Why not. He has a mite of pop and speed to press against Scott Feldman.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Orioles game could run into scattered storms. As always, monitor it.

The Link. We have a mix of everything in both contests.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


5 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 7-10-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. dudekid says:

    stubbs has been hot lately, but the one thing I’d be careful of is CarGo returning. He will be activated off the DL for Friday and I’m not sure if Stubbs will play or not, the rockies mainly use corey dickerson in left and charlie blackmon in center

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      I knew CarGo was going to come off the DL soon, but I thought it was going to bleed into the weekend. I do expect they’ll find a place for Stubbs, but probably not for Barnes.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Dave says:

    Use House or Smyly for DFS tonight? Other pitching options are horrifying or horribly expensive.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Brad Johnson says:

      It’s truly an awful day for pitching. I picked Despaigne from the value bin because I see him as the best bet to reach 7 innings (despite all the problems with his peripherals). I could see using House against a potentially demoralized Yankees lineup.

      I think Smyly could be a mess against the Royals.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Hitch says:

    You made out like a bandit in both trades. It’s not even close.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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