- Dio de los Offenses
- Daily DFS
- Tuesday Picks
1. Dio de los Offenses
Yea, I don’t know Spanish.
Tomorrow is the fifth day since teams returned from the All-Star Break. For the first time since early April, almost everybody will line up their fourth or fifth best pitcher. Unlike in April when many teams didn’t know what to expect from their back end pitchers, everyone has a good idea what’s coming tomorrow – runs. We’ll see a few more offense heavy days in the weeks to come before off days mix up the schedule.
2. Daily DFS
We have 12 games today, all of them coming after 7:00 pm ET.
Miles Mikolas might be a sneaky play today thanks to good strikeout and walk rates. His 10.05 ERA will certainly draw negative attention. Mostly, he’s struggled with BABIP (.431), HR/FB ratio (12.5%), and LOB% (43.7%). You can either bet on regression, or a middling Yankees offense at home.
Tom Koehler has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts, and he walked six batters over that period too. There’s no evidence of an injury, but there’s a chance the Braves offense will see a pitcher who is less than 100 percent.
Jeremy Guthrie usually isn’t a great option for a stack, but he’s pitching at White Sox Cellular Field today.
T.J. House versus Kris Johnson has the right pitchers for stacking, but the Indians offense isn’t great against lefties and the Twins offense leaves something to be desired against all pitchers. The game is to be played at Target Field.
The Nationals have a few lefty stingers to use against Franklin Morales at Coors Field. This is a pretty easy stack to target.
Vidal Nuno escaped the American League, but he still has to face the lefty-slaying Tigers. At least the game is in Arizona, so there will be no designated hitter.
3. Tuesday Picks
Pitchers to Start: Kyle Hendricks debut was tarnished by a home run and a few too many walks. He did manage to rack up some whiffs (11.6 SwStr%). He’ll face the lowly Padres this time around, which makes for a sneaky waiver wire start.
Jimmy Nelson‘s first couple starts flashed both promise and signs for concern. Strikeouts should be a strength for Nelson, but he may also walk too many batters. The Reds offense isn’t in great shape, so you could try to squeeze in his start and hope for the best. It’s risky.
Pitchers to Exploit: Both Chase Whitley and Nick Martinez feature 5.10 ERA’s. The difference between the two is their peripherals. Whitley has a 3.98 FIP while Martinez has a 5.99 FIP. Martinez has walked more batters than he’s struck out, while Whitley has a healthy 3.33 K/BB ratio. Yankee Stadium opens the door for home runs, but one of these guys is clearly worse than the other.
Jacob Turner isn’t nearly as bad as his 6.22 ERA. His FIP and xFIP are both below 4.00. His main trouble has been BABIP. Even with regression, the Braves offense isn’t a great matchup.
Eric Stults has been eaten alive by the long ball this season. The Cubs don’t have a high octane offense, and regression says the home run rate should return to normal levels. Still, it might be worth testing out a couple Cubs.
Lefty Bruce Chen is back in blue, and he’ll face similarly exploitable righty Scott Carroll. A game at the White Sox home park is always a potential target, and it’s especially true when both pitchers are lousy.
Danny Salazar was pitching well in the minors until his last two starts when he walked 11 batters in 11.2 innings. He’s a good bet for strikeouts, but he could also melt. On the other side of the ledger, Yohan Pino is good organizational depth and nothing more.
The Rockies are throwing TBA. They don’t have a good track record with him on the mound.
Hector Santiago has pitched a lot better out of the bullpen than the rotation. He gets to face a well-oiled Orioles lineup.
Oakland will see mid-tier lefty Brett Oberholtzer. He isn’t as bad as a lot of the guys pitching tomorrow, but the matchup against A’s is worrisome.
Erasmo Ramirez has a good swinging strike rate of 10 percent. Unfortunately, everything else about him is a negative. He’ll face the Mets in Seattle.
Hitters (power): Jonny Gomes will face Happ.
Lucas Duda and any other available, left-handed Met is worth a look against Ramirez.
Derek Norris looks good for anyone who needs a catcher.
The Steve Pearce bandwagon is pretty full (53 percent ownership on Yahoo). If you can fit him in, Santiago makes for a good matchup.
Dayan Viciedo has the platoon advantage. It’s the only time to use him.
Seth Smith faces another non-elite righty.
Hitters (speed): Eric Young Jr. gets inconsistent starts, but he sure steals a lot of bases for a waiver wire guy.
Switch hitter Arismendy Alcantara seems like a good play tomorrow.
Tommy La Stella has no competition for reps. He’ll see Turner.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Atlanta and Minnesota have scatter thunderstorms today. It’s just a 30-40 percent chance.
The Link. Lots of offensive parks tonight.
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