The Daily Grind: 7-25-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Keeper Trade Advice
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Saturday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Keeper Trade Advice

In keeping with my recent tradition of laziness (also I’m pressed for time), I’m going to link to 1,100 words I wrote about selling elite keepers for more keepers. If you’re trying to trade a Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig, or similarly young stud, this should be required reading.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Cardinals and Cubs play at 4:05. They’re all by themselves.

Late: The Rangers never ending search for starting pitching has brought them to Jerome Williams. He’s a classic replacement level guy. His stuff looks ok, and his command isn’t bad. He’s always been homer prone, which won’t be solved in Arlington. Expect an ERA just south of 5.00 with the potential for some blowups. He’ll face the Athletes of Oakland.

John Danks and Kevin Correia aren’t A-plus stacking targets, mostly due to Target Field and the opposing offenses in question. They’ve posted their share of meltdowns this season, so don’t rule out a high scoring game.

Brad Hand is once again troubled by walks. It’s an old problem for the 24-year-old lefty, but I do think he’ll eventually shake the worst of it and become a decent major league starter. He’ll face the Astros at Minute Maid Park. They’re down one George Springer, so the offense isn’t at its best.

The Pirates will see lefty Brett Anderson at Colorado. It’s his latest start between stints on the disabled list. Aside from ground balls, it’s hard to know what, if anything, to expect from Anderson. All I know is he’s playing at Coors.

I usually consider Tyler Skaggs and Drew Smyly to be decent pitchers, but they’re facing the Tigers and Angels today. Both offenses mount left-handed pitching, so the duo could be in trouble.

Rapid Fire: Kyle Kendrick has a bad habit of allowing runs in the early going.

Why I didn’t pickJason Hammel – Hammel may be coming off a terrible outing, but I’m not ready to throw in the towel on his early season improvements. The Rangers have a weak offense, so it’s a good day for Hammel to bounce back.

3. Saturday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Odrisamer Despaigne‘s bucket of extra sloppy slop passes the eye test for me, even though his peripherals are worrisome. He’s generated a lot of weak contact to date, and I do think there could be more strikeouts in there. For now, tread very lightly even though he’s handled better offenses than the Braves can muster.

Pitchers to Exploit: Shelby Miller is back in the rotation after one relief appearance. Ostensibly, the Cards were “resting” Miller, but I think they’re trying to figure out what they can do with the declining youngster. In quotable words of baseball prime minister Dave Cameron, Miller is “broken.” Soon we’ll be singing that old children’s song ~The wheels on the bus, fell off the bus, off the bus, off the bus.~

I usually like to use Jon Niese, but the Brewers feature a terrifying offense against left-handed pitching. The game is at home for Milwaukee, which means we can expect some sparks to fly.

Nick Tepesch has his turn tomorrow now. He’s yet another homer prone righty working in Texas. That rotation is a mess…

The Pirates will see lefty Tyler Matzek. Matzek needs to buff his strikeout rate about five percent if he wants to survive in Colorado. He did it in the PCL, so it’s possible. You could also try shorting Jeff Locke. I like him a lot this season, but I worry about most pitchers unfamiliar with Coors Field.

Jeremy Hellickson survived his return from the disabled list, but it wasn’t pretty. He allowed seven base runners in 4.1 innings and only struck out two. If you’ll recall, he was getting pretty exploitable last season, so it could be that he’s declined to the point of mediocrity.

Hitters (power): Josh Harrison, Russell Martin, and Gaby Sanchez all make for decent power plays in Colorado.

John Jaso, Stephen Vogt, and Jed Lowrie are generally available for a start against Tepesch.

Brock Holt is a good play against Hellickson if he’s available. Holt currently leads Red Sox position players in WAR, which kind of explains their record.

Mark Reynolds, Rickie Weeks, and any other available, right-handed Brewer is a reasonable pick tomorrow.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis isn’t a great play against a right-hander, but he should start with J.D. Martinez laid up for a few days.

Drew Stubbs will probably start against Locke.

Adam Eaton and Conor Gillaspie are good picks to put balls in play against Kyle Gibson. To be clear, I can almost guarantee Gillaspie won’t steal a base, but he’s unlikely to hit a home run too. You’re looking for multiple hits from him.

People are starting to notice that James Jones steals bases and does little else. Surprisingly, that includes defense. He might be out of a job soon, so pick up the steals while you can. Those in super deep leagues where he has value should trade him.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Chicago and Colorado both have a 30 percent chance of isolated storms.

The Link. Lots of eight weather ratings. There’s also a ton of green parks today.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, RotoWorld, and Rotoballer. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


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