The Daily Grind: 7-4-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Merry July Day
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Saturday Selections
  4. Table

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1. Merry July Day

Enjoy your Fourth of July holiday. Unless you’re in the path of this storm, in which case I recommend pushing your plans to tomorrow. Some of you may want to consider taking off from DFS today. I know it’s the day you’re finally going to get that big spike, but your friends and loved ones will appreciate seeing you put down the phone/computer for a day.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Five games are early, although some sites may not include the Nationals game due to the 11:05 AM start time. It doesn’t look like the Boston game is going to happen.

The closest thing to a stacking target is Roberto Hernandez. His penchant for ground balls makes him a poor target to stack against. A guy or two might hit a home run, but everyone else will probably ground out a bunch of times. I recommend taking a Pirate or two.

Similarly, Gerrit Cole, Chase Whitley, and Kyle Gibson aren’t dominant by any means. A few matchup plays could take you a long way.

The Blue Jays can smash the baseball, but Tommy Milone is pretty solid at the Coliseum. An elite group of outfielders plus some deep fences help. Maybe Marcus Stroman is the guy to target even though he may have the best stuff of the time slot.

Late: Nine games are late. The 10th starts at 6:40, so it’s probably not included in any contest.

Roenis Elias has proven himself to be a solid if unspectacular pitcher. He works as a target today because he’s pitching at homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

I’d like to stack all kinds of Dodgers against Jair Jurrjens. He pitched alright in Triple-A for the Reds, but I can’t see him mid-4′s ERA transitioning to Coors Field. This could be a big time thumping.

Something about this Josh Collmenter versus Ervin Santana game says runs to me. I can’t quite pin it down numerically. I usually ignore these “gut feelings,” but we have a lack of fodder today.

3. Saturday Selections

Pitchers to Start: Jose Quintana is only 35 percent owned on Yahoo. It’s understandable, his home park is scary. He often has disadvantageous matchups against superior offenses or better pitchers. Tomorrow is one of those days. Felix Hernandez sits on the other side of the matchup at The Cell. However, the offense he’ll face is inferior, especially against left-handed pitching.

Andrew Heaney is 0-3 through three big league starts. The first was a one run performance, but he’s struggled through his next two outings. He looks like a future fantasy option, but right now he’s a shot in the dark. I’d consider betting on the talent over the early results, but only if I had to.

Pitchers to Exploit: Yohan Pino has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in the early going. That’s not surprising for a right-hander who averages 88 mph with his fastball. While he’s exploitable, a start at Target Field takes some of the edge off of it.

I’ve upgraded my report on David Buchanan from fringe major leaguer to adequate spot starter. I don’t see anything in his bag of tricks to bump his ERA below the high 4′s. In some ways, I expect him to be a right-handed Vidal Nuno. Most of the time, he’ll give up some runs, but not enough to stack against him. Everyone once and awhile he’ll truly implode. I’m not sure PNC Park will be the place he implodes.

Speaking of spot starters, soft-tossing righty Mike Bolsinger will face the Braves. He’s allowed an inflated rate of home runs and his walk rate is lower than his minor league numbers. I think I mentioned last week, Arizona games are blacked out for me, so I’ve yet to get eyes on him.

Jorge de la Rosa got bumped a day, but everything I said yesterday holds true. The Dodgers are well positioned to score a few runs.

I don’t know what Odrisamer Despaigne is doing. Over his seven minor league starts, strikeouts were a strength and walks were a weakness. In the majors, he’s struck out almost nobody, controlled his walk rate, and allowed a prodigious number of balls in play. No major league pitcher survives with his numbers. His whiff rate is consistent with his strikeout rate.

Hector Santiago tossed a respectable four innings last time around. I expect a similar length of outing this time around. I’ll also be targeting a few right-handed Astros.

Hitters (power): Dust off Derek Norris for a start against lefty Mark Buehrle.

Chris Carter has been cold, but I still like to use him against mediocre lefties when I need a home run.

Danny Valencia has been back in action for awhile, but the matchups haven’t been right. A start against T.J. House is a good time to use him.

Scott Van Slyke is probably my top pick if he’s available to you.

Hitters (speed): Craig Gentry may leadoff against Buehrle.

Feel free to give Brock Holt a try against the always unpredictable Ubaldo Jimenez.

Scooter Gennett has been on fire, yet his ownership still stands at 36 percent. As the leadoff man for the Brewers, he may provide a little spark.

Tommy La Stella is similar to Gennett. He doesn’t have much power or speed, but his profile is still useful from a middle infielder.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Boston is getting smashed by a tropical storm today and New York will be brushed by it. It looks like the Mets game will happen and the Red Sox game won’t.

The Link. I know where I want to target offense (hint: Colorado).

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


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