- Why Hello There
- Daily DFS
- Tuesday Picks
1. Why Hello There
Howdy folks. It appears I am back and ready to talk shop once again. In his infinite wisdom, Eno has decided to move this post’s scheduled time to 10:15 ET. The previous time was 12:15, but I posted earlier anytime there was a day game. Now you’ll know exactly when to expect the column, which I suppose is useful.
Let’s talk Grind. Brett and Landon do things a little differently. Was there anything they did you would like to see implemented on a daily basis? Due to time constraints, it would be difficult to replicate their charts (unless you want them to replace the Factor Grid). To be clear, the length of this column is what it is – it won’t be getting longer. However, if certain information is more valuable than what I already provide, then I can make a change.
2. Meager Monday
Early: Today is a meager Monday for two reasons. One of the games is played early – the contest between the Mets and Phillies. It also happens to be one of the few games with a clean weather report.
Late: That leaves us with 10 games late. Of those, six should stay dry.
The Braves face new Dodger Kevin Correia in Atlanta. Correia has been a frequent guest of my exploit pages and the story remains the same. He lives and dies on balls in play, which means he’ll turn in the occasional stinker.
Chris Capuano has pitched superbly for the Yankees in three starts, but I have to assume he’ll turn back into the mid-4′s ERA guy who has seemingly bounced around half the league (actually only seven franchises). The Orioles have a lot of right-handed thump to send against Capuano, and the game is to be played at Camden Yards.
Jeff Locke is a guy I’ve begun to roster outright in many leagues, but today’s matchup is bad. The Tigers possess a murderers row of right-handed hitters who could bash Locke into pieces. Righties have hit to the tune of a .332 wOBA against Locke (lefties just a .224 wOBA).
The Marlins aren’t juggernauts of offense, but they also have enough going on to defeat Shelby Miller. He’s been solid in three starts since returning from the bullpen. However, he’s also given up three home runs in that period, so it’s a stretch to say he’s “all cured.”
Colby Lewis is coming off of a complete game shutout of the White Sox. I’m still eyeballing the .411 wOBA posted by left-handed hitters for DFS picks. Lefties have also managed a .412 BABIP against Lewis, so don’t expected quite-so-high of a wOBA going forward.
Rapid Fire: Tommy Milone returns to Oakland – this time with the Twins. I like Milone quite a bit, but the A’s can stack quite a few lefty mashers. Jordan Lyles was somewhat shaky in his return last week, but he outlasted the Cubs. This time, he faces an easy Padres offense at Petco Park.
Pitchers to Start: T.J. House is home against the Diamondbacks. They lack for notable power options with only Mark Trumbo posing a substantial home run threat. House doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters, but he should twirl a solid start in this one.
Collin McHugh has been ignored since he returned from the disabled list. Old Two L’s has pitched well in his last three starts. The Twins shouldn’t present any challenge. This is a guy you can own outright.
Kyle Hendricks is a nice pick against fringy offenses, but the Brewers aren’t one of those. His peripherals aren’t really good enough to take the risk. Since some owners have huge innings deficits to recover, I’ve listed him anyway.
Pitchers to Exploit: Josh Collmenter is a soft-tossing, contact oriented, fly ball dealing righty. He’ll face an Indians lineup with plenty of left-handed pop in a stadium that rewards such power.
Robbie Ray isn’t much to look at as a major league pitcher. He’s too hittable and has allowed too many fly balls. The Pirates are down one Andrew McCutchen, but I still like their lineup against southpaws. The ever-unpredictable Edinson Volquez is on the other side of this one.
Jarred Cosart hasn’t pitched well lately; a trend that continued in his Marlins debut. He’ll see the Cardinals tomorrow. I would have been using Cosart as a closer about a year ago, but then he wouldn’t have fetched Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran at this trade deadline. He still possesses upside as a starter, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near unlocking it.
Nick Tepesch is reliably mediocre with his low strikeout rate and fly ball tendencies. He’s up against the Rays.
Yohan Pino continues to eat innings for the Twins. I feel bad for this kind of pitcher. He’s done a great job for the Twins, but he’ll probably be discarded in the offseason, at the end of spring training, or some other point in time. He’s liable to serve with five different franchises by this time next year.
When the Phillies activated Ryan O’Sullivan, I said, “there has to be a better answer.” The front office responded by claiming Jerome Williams. While I agree that Williams is a better pitcher than O’Sullivan, this is not what I had in mind. The Phillies are visiting the Angels, so exploit the crap out of Williams.
The Rockies are dusting off Yohan Flande for another start. It will be his seventh, which is about six more than I thought possible.
Jon Singleton is swinging a hot stick. He’s at home against Pino.
Lonnie Chisenhall remains available for a start against Collmenter.
Hitters (speed): Michael Taylor may start against Mets swing pitcher TBA.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Storms are moving in late in Baltimore, so most of the game should be done by the time anything happens. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Chicago all have a 40 percent or higher risk of storms.
The Link. The table is back. Only two games will feature average weather ratings below an eight.
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