- Daily DFS
- Saturday Picks
Injuries rule the land. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are out for the year, which saps some of the savor from the Rockies lineup. Justin Upton has a “mild” hamstring strain that will sideline him about a week. Others are banged up too – it’s (mostly) detailed in Jeff Zimmerman‘s latest MASH Report.
Related to injured players, I wrote about trading for them in keeper leagues yesterday. If your keeper roster is shooting blanks, give my piece a once over.
2. Daily DFS
Once again, everything is late.
James Paxton is a potentially high value pitcher with a scary matchup. He’ll be tested against the Dread Tigers, those undead ghoul cats of swat. El Tigres can really mash lefties, so it will be a great test of Paxton. He’ll need to best lefty bashing teams like Detroit and Oakland in the playoffs if the Mariners are to make any noise.
On the basis that Clay Buchholz could entirely implode (again), we have to consider stacking Astros. However, I’m somewhat comfortable with actually starting Buchholz given the quality of his last start as well as his most recent appearance against the Astros (9 IP shutout, 10 K).
The Angels face Nick Martinez in the never ending quest to stack against the Rangers. That poor poor team. Martinez has awful peripherals and fly balls out the wazoo.
Rapid Fire: I think I’ve said all there is to say about Hector Noesi – he’s exploitable. A Franklin Morales start at Coors is usually a top stack. This time around, I’m not sure Cincinnati has enough fire power to get the job done. Remember, their ballpark is also very helpful to hitters, so their numbers won’t receive as much of a boost as most visiting teams.
3. Saturday Picks
Pitchers to Start: Drew Smyly‘s new home is well suited to his fly ball tendencies. I don’t think the Yankees have enough potent right-handed bats to make this a difficult outing for Smyly. He’ll have the chance to keep the score low and record a few punch outs, which is all you can ask from a waiver start.
Rubby de la Rosa is back for another start – this time against the Houston Astromechs. The ‘Stros can come off as feckless at the plate despite decent offensive numbers (tied 14th in wRC+ with the Nationals and Cardinals).
Speaking of feckless lineups in Texas, the Rangers are actually a very bad offensive club. They make a superb matchup for Matt Shoemaker. He’s a pitcher who seems to outperform his stuff due to great command and control. His track record in the minors is mixed, so we’ll see just how long he can keep his walk rate below five percent.
Pitchers to Exploit: Ubaldo Jimenez was less than sharp in his return from the disabled list, so consider picking on him again at Progressive Field. The Indians still lean left-handed, even with Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and David Murphy on the disabled list.
Brad Peacock has struggled through most of his outings. Fly ball friendly ways along with a very high walk rate (nearly 5 BB/9) have done him in.
The Blue Jays are among the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, but I’m still confused why that’s the case. The lineup smells like there is more than enough right-handed power to carry it against southpaws. They’ll face John Danks at Chicago, which can only help their power numbers.
I’m pronouncing Colby Lewis the ace of the Rangers rotation. Yikes. As I’ve been saying week after week, his trouble is all tied up in BABIP and fly balls. He’s slowly regressing toward the mid-4′s ERA we should all expect. A matchup with the Angels won’t help his regression quest.
Hitters (power): Danny Valencia will face Danks at U.S. Cellular Field.
Kole Calhoun, where available, should absolutely be used.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
St. Louis might see scattered storms in time for the second half of their game. It’s currently listed as a 40 percent chance.
The Link. There are a few obvious locales for hitting tonight.
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