The Daily Grind: 8-23-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Injury Report Update
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Sunday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Injury Report Update

Sir Zimmerman of Jeff has updated his PAIN, HURT, and SLOW indices. The byproducts are essential reading for fantasy owners down the stretch. He highlights a few players within the post. The data are most useful to identify players who require further analysis. For example, Khris Davis is probably healthy – he’s just not as good as he appeared to be last season. On the other hand, we know that David Wright is injured and this list only verifies that he’s been sucking as a result. What about Miguel Cabrera? He doesn’t look hurt, but he was very banged up last year.

By the way, yesterday’s recipe for runs yielded a total of 26 runs.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Six games fall into the early batch.

The Yankees are at home against Scott Carroll. The righty is exceptionally mediocre with his 4.62 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, and 13.1 percent HR/FB ratio. At least he mostly keeps the ball on the ground (53 percent).

Jeremy Hellickson has pitched well since coming off the disabled list, but I’m not sure I can expect good things against a powerful Blue Jays lineup. Hellickson’s stat profile is consistent with previous seasons except for a career low 32 percent ground ball rate. I worry that a visit to the Rogers Centre could yield a blast or two.

In the first game of a doubleheader, the Tigers will start Buck Farmer against Twins hurler Yohan Pino. It’s a battle of guys who were completely off the radar entering the season. I expect plenty of offense to follow.

I sure hope you didn’t draft Tim Lincecum. He’s in the midst of a particularly damaging spree of starts (22 runs in 22 innings). The homer prone righty will have to get back on track in Washington D.C. Nationals Park is a neutral stadium, which is to say it’s vastly more hitter friendly than Lincecum’s home town AT&T Park.

Late: Because of that doubleheader, 10 games are late.

Danny Salazar is hopelessly unpredictable. I’m starting him in a few leagues where I need the upside, but I can also see the Astros as a decent stack to fade.

Remember everything I wrote about Shelby Miller yesterday and then crossed out? It’s applicable today. Miller’s opposed by David Buchanan, who is an entirely different sort of mediocre.

Nick Tepesch has a shot to get his ERA under 4.00 today, but his peripherals tell me that a 5.00 ERA is more in line with his stuff. He’s another contact oriented pitcher for a contact hungry Royals lineup.

Jordan Lyles has been off since his return from the disabled list. I think he needs to be at his best to succeed in Colorado, and he’s probably only 80 percent there. Most starters spend very little time with their absolute best stuff, so I guess I’m saying I don’t like Lyles in Colorado. In any case, he’s opposed by Tom Koehler. He strikes me as the kind of fellow who could scuffle in Denver.

Trevor May has walked about a thousand hitters since joining the majors. He’s gone through several extended periods of inadequate command and control in the minors. I don’t expect him to solve his woes in time for game two of the doubleheader.

C.J. Wilson has struggled of late. Last time out, he held the Red Sox to one run over 5.1 innings, but he also walked five batters. The Angels really need the lefty to step up. The Athletics will do their best to sink him early.

3. Sunday Picks

Pitchers to Start: I still have reservations about Mike Fiers allowing too many home runs at Miller Park. However, his strikeout rate is attractive enough to overlook the warts against the Pirates lineup.

If you’re adventurous, try Kyle Gibson against the Tigers. I might be getting too cute with this selection. I’m banking on both clubs coming out flat in a day game after a doubleheader. Both bullpens will be taxed, so the Twins will ask for a many innings as Gibson can give.

Pitchers to Exploit: I think the White Sox have enough Jose Abreu‘s to consider piling up some kindling against Chris Capuano.

Drew Hutchison has been slaughtered in two consecutive outings against mediocre offenses. The Rays are slightly better than average. Hutch is probably fine, but if this is brought on by some proximate cause – injury, mechanics, etc. – then he might get hit around.

I don’t want any part of Allen Webster against a very left-handed Mariners lineup. Webster has been terrible in five major league starts, but I also get the sense (from the maybe 2 innings I’ve watched) that he could come with a large platoon split.

Justin Masterson remains a shadow of his former self. Speaking of shadows, he’ll face the ghost of the 2009 Phillies. On the other side of this one is an even more exploitable pitcher – Jerome Williams.

After giving up three runs in five innings, Miles Mikolas‘ ERA went down. Let’s see if the Royals can keep his ERA above 7.00.

Brad Hand versus Christian Bergman at Coors Field is a fantasy paradise. Look for both pitchers to get trounced.

Hitters (power): Matt Joyce, James Loney, and Kevin Kiermaier are all up for consideration.

Any left-handed Mets are worth a shot against Kevin Correia. If they’re available, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, and slumpy Curtis Granderson are the most notable.

Garrett Jones should have a platoon advantage at Coors.

Hitters (speed): Alexei Ramirez will probably bat near the top of the lineup.

Drew Stubbs should start against Hand.

Norichika Aoki has the Mikolas matchup.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Minnesota, Chicago, and Cincinnati could see the odd storm, but it looks like they’re supposed to be scattered. Washington and Philadelphia could see light rain.

The Link. It’s a duplicate of yesterday, lots of green and some 10 rated weather.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, RotoWorld, and Rotoballer. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


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