The Daily Grind: 8-27-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Fun With 2015 Projections
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Thin Thursday
  4. Table

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1. 2015 Projections

Because it’s never to early to think about next year (says the guy who rarely plans beyond the current hour), Jeff Zimmerman put together some early 2015 projections. Mike Podhorzer took a look at some of the interesting names on that list. Use this resource to help set up your keeper selections.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Just like every other Rangers starter, Colby Lewis is always a target. Too bad there are only two games before 7:00 ET.

Late: It looks like that leaves 13 games late.

Kyle Kendrick is a big part of the reason why the Phillies have allowed the most first inning runs in baseball. I heard that stat about two weeks ago, so I won’t guarantee it’s true. In any event, Kendrick seems to cough up three first inning runs every game before settling down (or sometime not). The Nationals draw the favorable matchup.

I’m a huge fan of the Jacob Turner pick up for the Cubs. However, I would be remiss if I did not note his frequent shellings at Marlins Stadium. Wrigley Field increases the risk of explosive offense.

As someone who scours the minor leagues for $1 ottoneu treasures, I’ve noticed Liam Hendriks‘ superb minor league season. In the minors, he’s able to post elite walk rates with strong strikeout rates. In the majors, elite turns into good and strong turns into below average. Combine that with a fly ball profile and a consistently high HR/FB ratio, and you have a dud.

Not unlike Hendriks, fly balls plus a high HR/FB ratio really hurt Brad Peacock. Unlike Hendriks, Peacock also adds a ton of walks to the list of problems. He’ll face a capable A’s offense.

Rapid Fire: Drew Smyly is on the wrong side of the platoon against several potent Orioles. Hector Noesi has been in this column for just about every one of his outings. How many times do I have to say it – Franklin Morales is a reliever.

3. Thin Thursday

With nine games on the docket, it’s a typically thin Thursday.

Pitchers to Start: Did you know the Rockies have a 81 wRC+ on the road. Also, did you know the Rockies are without their (arguably) two best hitters. They will face Yusmeiro Petit at the “world’s” friendliest stadium for pitchers. Petit can provide some strikeouts and limit walks.

Carlos Carrasco has been en fuego since returning to the rotation. A large part of me thinks the fairy tale will eventually end – perhaps at a hitter friendly stadium like U.S. Cellular Field. Oh, lookee there, he’s playing the White Sox today in Chicago. Kidding aside, I picked Carrasco as a sleeper heading into the season (albeit as a reliever), so it’s nice to see him performing well.

Collin McHugh will face a decimated and desiccated Rangers lineup. It was not long ago that Texas featured a top offense in baseball. Now Adrian Beltre is the only playing preventing them from looking like a Double-A roster. McHugh provides good peripherals and has a lovely matchup. Do you need more?

Pitchers to Exploit: However poorly the Cubs have hit against right-handers in the past, those lineups mostly did not include Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez, and Jorge Soler. Those potent prospects will face Dylan Axelrod – a guy they well could have faced at some point in the minors this year. Axelrod was quite effective in his 2014 debut, but his minor league numbers put the lie to that performance. He’s a hittable, fly ball pitcher working at Great American Ball Park.

Nick Tepesch is McHugh’s opponent. Sir Tepesch’s habit of walking more batters than he strikes out can create problems. Strikeouts are the Astros weakness, so Tepesch will either find a way to buff his whiff rate, or he’ll probably get shelled again.

Hitters (power): Robbie Grossman does some leadoff work, Chris Carter is swinging a nice stick, and Jon Singleton is providing power sans average.

The Athletics will dump Derek Norris, Jonny Gomes, Nate Freiman, and other righties on C.J. Wilson. He (Wilson) has scuffled of late.

I like Zach Walters more than is reasonable. Perhaps more than Carson.

Eric Campbell should start with Mike Minor on the mound.

In addition to the trio of Cubs prospects, Chris Coghlan could be of service.

Hitters (speed): I’m going to take a wild guess that Jarrod Dyson starts against fellow lefty Tommy Milone. It’s just a random guess. If not Dyson, then Norichika Aoki.

Emilio Bonifacio will likely bat down in the order against Jon Niese.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The weather risks are low today. Pittsburgh might have a a late game storm pop up and Kansas City is a risk for mid-game isolated showers. Both will probably be unaffected based on current forecasts.

The Link. 10’s yo. Lot’s of 10’s.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, RotoWorld, and Rotoballer. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


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Andy
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Andy

What about Hellickson @ BAL?

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